President Trump has declared that the main focus of the China Summit is trade, specifically unveiling big transactions for signature U.S. enterprises that swell the flow of exports toward the immense market the POTUS claims isn’t buying enough of our stuff, and Washington-Beijing accords that mark a defrosting of the icy standoff between the world’s two biggest economies. The stateside player most likely to land a trophy coup is Boeing. In the week or so prior to Trump’s departure for China, leading a retinue of eighteen super-prominent CEOs, sundry media outlets reported that the aerospace colossus is negotiating a giant sale to China’s three major carriers, naturally shepherded by Beijing.
Two factors suggest that what might appear a rumor’s really a done deal. First, it’s probable that the news arose from a publicity-enhancing leak from the Administration. And the President wouldn’t put the plum out there if it stood the remotest chance of not happening, a scenario that would serve his critics grist for declaring the conclave a flop. Second, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is making the trip—as far as we know, he’s accompanying Trump alongside the other grandees on the Air Force One provided by the government of Qatar (which is, by the way, a custom version of the Boeing 787). Ortberg’s an extremely careful operator who would never even hint at an order that wasn’t going to happen, a prime reason to believe that the Trump team’s behind the buzz.
Boeing could indeed soon be taking a victory lap, argues Richard Safran, an analyst at Seaport Global Securities. “The Administration doesn’t effectively pre-announce a deal unless it’s a fait-accompli,” Safran told Fortune. “That Ortberg is going over there is a pretty good sign the reports are correct. The primary reason for him to go is for a photo-op with Chinese officials. Trump loves to trumpet when he brings business to the U.S.” Safran adds that “getting Boeing’s formerly biggest customer back in the game bolsters the case for its airplanes, and especially its best-selling 737 MAX family.”
In fact, the rumored order comprises around 500 or more aircraft, heavily weighted towards the MAX. To get context on its importance, Boeing expects to exit 2025 delivering 52 737s, and they sell at a list price of around $100 million apiece, although those numbers, as always, would be heavily discounted. Most of all, this sale would clinch a landmark reversal of Boeing’s recent fraught relations and virtually frozen business vis a vis China in recent years. In March 2019, China was the first nation to ground the MAX, acting in the aftermath of the fatal Ethiopian Airlines crash—and months after the earlier Lion Air disaster. “The CAAC [China’s aerospace oversight arm] grounded the MAX before the FAA did,” says Safran. The China ban lasted four years, longer than the boycotts from any other nation. Shipments resumed in January of 2024, but kept getting interrupted by a series of reviews by China regulators. Since the blockage started seven years ago, Boeing’s sent just over 100 planes to the nation that welcomed about that number of MAX in 2018 alone. A signing during the summit would bank Boeing’s first Chinese order since 2017.
China’s a crucial future market for Boeing, and will prove a key battleground vs. Airbus
Both Boeing and Airbus forecast that China will rank as the world’s largest aircraft market by 2043. Its commercial fleet’s expected to double to nearly 10,000 planes by that date—that’s almost double the commercial aircraft serving the U.S. today. In recent years, it’s looked like Airbus was set to get a bigger chunk of those giant orders to come than its archrival. In fact, Airbus was collecting orders and making deliveries while Boeing idled due to the bans and delays imposed by the CAAC. The European consortium even operates a facility in Tianjin that makes the a320, the leading competitor to the MAX. A big purchase, so the reported 500 planes, would demonstrate that China now regards the MAX as a great plane for the future, and hasn’t tilted towards decisively towards Airbus at all. “It’s a good sign that Airbus has manufacturing in China, and yet China is still choosing Boeing,” says Safran.
A big driver in Boeing’s comeback under Ortberg: Gaining approval from the FAA for major increases in MAX production. Ortberg’s stated that the goal of reaching 52 by the close of this year, and projections from there don’t include new orders from China. But Safran reckons that the expected summit sale could mean an additional five MAX a month, amounting to a sizable increase in 737 family revenues. The question is when those dollars would arrive. Boeing is already struggling with delays on MAX and 787 deliveries due respectively to wiring problems, and waits for business-class seats. It also has a giant, almost $600 billion backlog for 6,100 planes, representing six to seven years of production. According to Safran, Boeing may make a few shipments to China in the near term, but won’t manage to start major deliveries from a new summit order for a year or two. The main reason: Bottlenecks on the supplier side. It can take 18 months or so to get the likes of engines and landing gear.
Still, Boeing’s suddenly gone from a standstill to possibly leaping ahead of its European competitor in the what will be the world’s fastest growing market. The high probability of a gala signing in Beijing would prove a milestone in a remarkable comeback.
