For Gen Z, that foundation has cracked.

A recent Gallup survey found just 59.2% of U.S. adults anticipate a high-quality life five years from now—the lowest level since measurement began nearly two decades ago. Since 2020, that figure has fallen 9.1 percentage points, the equivalent of an estimated 24.5 million fewer Americans expressing optimism about the future.

The causes aren’t hard to find. Starter home prices have risen 87% over the past seven years, according to Realtor.com. The average new car now costs roughly $49,000—a 27% increase from 2020. And hiring of workers aged 25 and younger dropped more than 45% compared with 2019.

The starter economy, in short, has been priced out of reach.

A perfect storm for young Americans

The structural forces compressing Gen Z’s economic entry point have been building for years, but converged with unusual force in the post-pandemic era. The housing deficit alone now stands at 4.03 million units, with Realtor.com calculating nearly 1.82 million Gen Z and millennial households that historically would have formed simply haven’t. Instead, they’re trapped by scarce supply and elevated borrowing costs.

In a recent analysis of 40 years of labor-market data, Goldman Sachs economists found that workers displaced early in their careers—from age 25 to 35—are largely delayed in entering the housing market, and thus build less wealth over time. In 2025, the median age of a first-time homebuyer hit an all-time high of 40. Even under the most optimistic construction scenarios, closing the supply gap would take roughly seven years, according to Realtor.com

Auto markets have followed a similar pattern. Per Kelley Blue Book, the average new-vehicle transaction price reached a record $50,318 in December 2025 before settling at $49,191 in January—still nearly 2% higher than a year ago and nearly double what entry-level buyers could have expected a generation ago. Used cars, historically the safety valve for young buyers, now average more than $25,000.

The job market tells the most complicated story. On the surface, overall unemployment stands at 4.4%. But the unemployment rate for workers aged 16 to 24 reached 10.8% last year—more than twice the national figure. Revello Labs offered a striking finding: The average new hire age rose to 42 in 2025 as employers prioritized experience. AI adoption is increasingly cited as a compounding factor, as companies eliminate the junior roles that once served as on-ramps into skilled professions.

Optimism as an economic indicator

The psychological toll is registering in hard data. As of year-end 2025, Gallup found just 48% of Americans qualified as “thriving”—down sharply from 59.2% at the June 2021 peak. Only five Gallup readings have ever come in lower, all of which were recorded during the Great Recession or at the onset of the pandemic.

The financial reality underpinning that pessimism is stark. Over 70% of Gen Z and millennials said “survival spending” is their norm and that wealth is out of reach, according to a March 2026 survey by Beyond Finance. Only 32% said the American Dream is still attainable. A Wells Fargo study released in March found 64% of parents with Gen Z children are still providing financial support, and 56% say doing so is straining their own finances—a sign the affordability crisis is rippling upward through families, not just hitting young adults alone.

The political implications are drawing attention. Policymakers across the spectrum are increasingly framing housing affordability and entry-level wage growth as generational-equity issues, not merely housing policy. Oxford Economics estimates 1 million more young adults are living at home than pre-pandemic trends would have predicted—and that those who remain at home spend $1,200 less annually than peers who have moved out, creating a $12 billion–$13 billion drag on U.S. consumption.

The silver lining

The pessimism is real—but the data tells a more complicated story. Despite record prices and elevated mortgage rates, Gen Z’s homeownership rate is actually tracking ahead of millennials at the same age. According to Redfin, roughly 30% of Gen Z adults owned a home as of early 2026—a higher share than millennials had achieved by the same point in their lives, when the scars of the 2008 financial crisis had frozen them out of the market entirely. The generation isn’t buying less; it’s buying differently—smaller homes, in lower-cost metros, often with parental co-investment.

The jobs picture is also more nuanced than the entry-level collapse suggests. While AI is eliminating some junior roles, it is also creating new categories of work that skew young: digital content, AI prompt engineering, and tech-adjacent services—many of which didn’t exist a decade ago and carry no formal credential requirements.

On wealth accumulation, the incoming Great Wealth Transfer complicates the pessimism narrative significantly. An estimated $84 trillion in assets is expected to pass from baby boomers to younger generations over the next two decades, with Gen Z standing to inherit more than any prior cohort at a comparable stage of life.

And a word about those millennials: They recovered from those scars pretty well.

The Wall Street Journal recently compared the economic fates of millennials and baby boomers side by side and let readers make up their own mind: Millennials are by and large pretty wealthy by now. But each generation had its cross to bear: mortgage rates of 18% (for baby boomers) versus nearly $30,000 in student debt (for millennials).

As Joshua Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, posted on LinkedIn: “The reason it doesn’t feel like the millennials have leveled up is that the boomers are still very much around, accumulating even bigger gains in stocks and the values of the businesses they own. Their spending is keeping prices high throughout the economy. Millennials did not get to ‘take over”’the way boomers did as the silent generation faded out.”

Millennials may be on deck, waiting to get an at bat and take a swing, but Gen Z couldn’t be faulted for feeling like they can’t get off the bench right now.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.