Good morning. Here’s what’s moving markets and minds today:
- Trump says the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much”—whatever that means.
- Stock markets rally as the price of oil goes below $100 a barrel.
- Almost no ships are braving the Strait of Hormuz.
- Aramco CEO warns of “catastrophic” consequences if war doesn’t end.
- Tehran regime survives—1,255 people did not.
- Anthropic sues the White House and reveals $5B in revenue.
- Average U.S. tax refund: $3,742—treat yourself.
- China’s exports hit a record—tariffs and all.
- Oracle earnings tonight—grab the popcorn.
THE MARKETS
The rollercoaster has a new loop
The S&P 500 closed up 0.83% yesterday on Trump’s de-escalation remarks, though the index is still down 0.73% year-to-date. Futures are up 0.19% this morning. Europe and the U.K. surged at the open; Asia did too, with South Korea’s KOSPI leading the pack—up a striking 5.35%.
TOP STORIES
IRAN
And just like that, the war was “very complete, pretty much“
Everything you thought yesterday about the war with Iran is wrong today, following President Trump’s remarks that he’s ready to wind down the conflict. Trump said the war was “very complete, pretty much” and then “we’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.” When asked if the war would end this week, Trump said, “No,” and, “very soon.” He also said, “We could call it a tremendous success now and leave here . . . or we could go further, and we’re going to go further.” Crystal clear.
- Hold that thought: Today, Israel’s Netanyahu said Israel was “not done yet” in its fight with Iran.
Off-ramp: Trump’s comments came after his advisers reminded him that high oil prices would torch Republican chances in the midterms, the Wall Street Journal reports. Trump was running out of wiggle room on the price of oil, given that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was only 58% full—not an ideal cushion—Fortune’s Tristan Bove reports.
Markets loved it. Oil is back down to $91 a barrel, from a high of over $119.
The key to keeping oil prices down is reopening the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers again. Unsurprisingly, Trump urged captains to go full speed ahead: “These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of…They have no Navy, we sunk all their ships,” Trump said, according to The Hill.
- He also threatened more bombing if Iran doesn’t let the oil flow. “they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” he said on Truth Social.
How bad was it? ‘Catastrophic,’ Aramco CEO says
To get a sense of the scale of the impending crisis, read the comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on his earnings call today: He said the war would have “catastrophic consequences” for global markets, causing “a severe chain reaction” and “a drastic domino effect…on aviation, agriculture, automotive, and other industries.” Nasser described the conflict as“by far the biggest crisis” the region’s oil and gas industry had ever faced. When was the last time you heard a Big Oil CEO talk like that?
Are we 20 days from the end of oil? If ships don’t start sailing through the Strait, expect oil to go to $150, Vikas Dwivedi and the team at Macquarie warned yesterday. “Without an agreement and a fast cessation of all kinetic activity, the crude market will begin to break in days, and not in weeks or months,” they told clients. There were already reports of oil and gas wells in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar being “shut-in” (ie closed). “In our view, the final cuts would occur in Saudi Arabia roughly 20 days from now.”
What the Strait looked like yesterday
Where does this leave us?
The Tehran regime is still in control of Iran. New supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei will get to keep his massive mansion on The Bishops Avenue in London. China will be happy to have its major oil supplier back online. Putin got to whisper in Trump’s ear, as is tradition.
- And 1,255 people were killed.
ANTHROPIC
Suing the hand that (used to) feed it
No surprises here: Anthropic’s claim against multiple U.S. agencies, after it was designated a “supply-chain risk” by the White House, contains a few interesting nuggets in the accompanying amicus filings, Fortune’s Alexei Oreskovic says. The company has generated $5 billion in revenue since commercializing its products in 2023, according to chief financial officer Krishna Rao. Anthropic had hundreds of millions of dollars in Pentagon contracts, until Trump turned against the company. Read the complaint here. Further details here.
- AI isn’t killing jobs yet—CEOs are using layoffs to fund a $2.5 trillion arms race, Fortune’s Diane Brady says.
CHART OF THE DAY
Refund season is real
As of March 5, total federal tax refunds were $141 billion, up 9% from the previous year, according to Heather Berger and her colleagues at Morgan Stanley. The average refund is $3,742, up 11%. “This is below our expectation of a 15-25% y/y increase,” the analysts said.
NUMBER OF THE DAY
21.8%
China’s exports grew by 21.8% year-on-year, well above expectations. China’s success came despite Trump’s tariffs contributing to a decline of 11% in exports to the U.S.
QUICK HITS
- America’s never had such high national debt heading into an economic shock. We need a ‘break glass’ plan, think tank warns by Nick Lichtenberg
- Former Goldman Sachs CEO says DEI programs are “counterproductive,” arguing “you’re branding the people in that program” by Jake Angelo
- The worst housing market in years couldn’t stop single women from owning a record-breaking number of homes by Catherina Gioino
- Meet the millennial who turned a $400 side hustle into TikTok Shop’s biggest teeth-whitening brand in the UK—now he splashes $335 a month on haircuts by Orianna Rosa Royle
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY
Yann LeCun’s AI start-up raises more than $1bn in Europe’s largest seed round – Financial Times
Scoop: White House readies executive order to weed out Anthropic – Axios
Trump’s War in Iran, and Rising Gas Prices, Collide With Midterm Agenda – New York Times
Conan O’Brien knew late-night shows were in trouble after viral ‘Hot Ones’ appearance – New York Post
ONE MORE THING
Oracle Q3 earnings tonight: Cloud computing, but make it theater
To set the scene, Fortune’s Amanda Gerut says, analysts are expecting about 20% growth in quarterly revenues to roughly $17 billion, in line with Oracle’s guidance of 19% to 21% growth from the prior year. But under the hood? There’s a lot more going on—$108 billion in debt, negative cash flow, and $1.6 billion in layoff costs—and those issues have sent its stock down about 20% so far in 2026.
