Crystal Ball: How IPOs and dealmaking will shake out in 2026

But the hoped-for rising tide of exits did not come to lift all boats. Some IPOs, like Navan, met with more muted reception. And overall IPO activity, while up from recent lows, remains below historical levels.

As 2026 gets underway, the fundamental circumstances that influence private market exits are largely the same: Private companies are bigger than ever by valuation, but they also have more liquidity levers than ever to pull without needing to tap the public markets. But that privilege is reserved for the very best of breed. 

Further down the private company food chain, things are more complicated. Even for some promising AI startups, an acquihire to a giant is proving far more appealing than going at it alone. Which means acquisitions and other creative variations of dealmaking are also very much in play. 

Here’s how Term Sheet readers are looking at the exit landscape in 2026, and what they’re predicting for IPOs and M&A.

Note: Answers have been edited for clarity and brevity.

IPOs

IPO momentum will extend into early 2026, then slow. Right now, public equities are exceptionally strong, with high investor receptivity to tech, robust liquidity, and strong volume. There’s a four-year backlog of tech companies ready to go public, and this pent-up demand will continue releasing through Q1 or Q2 2026. But the window won’t stay open indefinitely. —Isabelle Freidheim, founder and managing partner, Athena Capital

The IPO market will continue to build on the successes of 2025. Our recent buyside discussions make it clear that the institutional market will be selective but look to put more capital to work behind their best ideas and grow with their winners. —Seth Rubin, Stifel head of global equity capital markets

Although the U.S./U.K. IPO markets are showing early signs of reawakening, optimism will remain measured. The opening of the IPO market will be a very significant event. The backlog is large and a positive trigger is needed to jumpstart the process of companies going public. —Ivan Nikkhoo, managing partner, Navigate Ventures

The IPO market will see more high-end, big-name companies go public as valuations improve, while smaller issuers will continue to struggle until meaningful reforms make the process more efficient and cost-effective. —Brad Bernstein, managing partner, FTV Capital

We expect 2026 to bring robust crypto-asset dealmaking generally, including M&A activity in the prediction markets and IPOs, as well as public tokenization transactions if we receive some helpful relief from the SEC on them. —Ben Cohen, partner, Latham & Watkins

With a choppy IPO window, [in life sciences] later-stage companies are staying private longer and often running dual-track M&A/go-public processes. Expect sustained high levels of activity in biotech and oncology sectors, both in earlier and later stage assets. —Mike Patrone, technology, life sciences, and private equity partner, Goodwin

Mergers and acquisitions

A $50B+ AI software acquisition reshapes the market. As a friendly regulatory environment continues and the financing capacity of incumbents grows—especially if they pull back from hyperscaler spending and free up tens of billions of dollars—I predict we’ll see a $50B+ AI software acquisition. —Jai Das, cofounder, president and partner, Sapphire Ventures

The deal environment will be more active, but larger buyout deals will likely be episodic and highly competitive.—Luke Sarsfield, CEO, P10 

In 2026, fintech will enter a phase defined by consolidation. The companies that achieve real product–market fit, strong unit economics, and defensible data advantages will pull decisively ahead, either by acquiring smaller players. —Ben Borodach, cofounder and CEO, April

I think we’ll see a lot of AI investment to help loss-related activities (FNOL, fraud detection, etc.). We’ll also continue to see private equity go after insurance distribution as a target sector while carriers keep snapping up inventive/creative new underwriters. —David Seider, CCO, TheZebra.com

2026 will mark the year of biotech coming back in vogue. Big pharma, with over $1 trillion in cash, will make significant acquisitions of venture-backed biotech companies focused on best-in-class therapies in oncology and metabolic diseases. —Steven Yang, head of global venture investments, Schroders

Cross border M&A as a percentage of global deal volumes is near a five-year high despite the trade wars and deglobalization headlines. Japan, which is undergoing an economic revitalization, will continue to shine under its new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, corporate governance reforms and increasing interest from corporates and sponsors alike. —Michal Katz, head of investment and corporate banking, Mizuho Americas

M&A activity will remain robust, but the exit environment for the high multiple investments made in 2019 and 2021 will still be difficult. —Eric Zinterhofer, founding partner, Searchlight Capital Partners

Venture capital-backed startups will start to merge, making unlikely partners of firms who typically compete for deals. This trend, which started with a trickle in 2025, will accelerate as startups look for ways to sustain growth and achieve scale for a potential public listing or PE exit  —Arvind Purushotham, head of Citi Ventures

Secondaries, tenders, and more

A defining trend for 2026 will be the rise of secondary markets in private investing. As startups remain private longer and traditional IPOs become less frequent, investors are increasingly seeking liquidity solutions through GP-led continuation vehicles, structured secondaries, and other private-market mechanisms. —Kal Amin, managing partner, 1848 Ventures

Despite our belief that liquidity will return to private equity in 2026, we see the secondary market achieving a new transaction volume high in 2026 after the record volume seen in 2025. Why? Because we believe that as distributions come in so will capital calls, leaving many LPs still overallocated to private equity for a period to come. And that LPs will be more active in how they manage their private equity portfolios in good times and bad. Thus, we predict the secondary market will reach $250B in volume in 2026. —Yann Robard, managing partner, Dawson Partners

The secondary markets will get noisy. The ongoing IPO drought will collide with the boom in registered alternatives, further accelerating the expansion of the secondary market—institutional capital is still at the wheel as new retail capital steps on the gas. Get ready to compare notes on private company valuations at the neighborhood block party as premiums rise, positions change hands more rapidly, and a “hot potato” environment introduces new structural risk. —Larry Aschebrook, founder and managing partner, G Squared

In 2026, tender offers won’t be limited to the largest private companies. As talent competition intensifies and employees grow impatient with illiquidity, mid-stage companies will use tenders as a core morale and retention lever. Following the lead of ElevenLabs and Temporal, you’ll see more companies openly announce tenders as predictable liquidity becomes a competitive advantage. —Nick Bunick, principal, NewView Capital

With the economy growing at a somewhat surprisingly solid pace and inflation remaining elevated, the Fed has little reason – let alone urgency – to further cut rates. That means policy is unlikely to loosen much in the near term, keeping rates higher than many expected and possibly disappointing investors, unless inflation drops sharply or the job weakens unexpectedly. —Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel chief economist

See you tomorrow, 

Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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VENTURE CAPITAL

- DayOne Data Centers, a Singapore-based data center platform, entered into definitive agreements for $2 billion in Series C funding, led by Coatue and joined by others. 

- interos.ai, an Arlington, Va.-based developer of supply chain risk management software, raised $20 million in funding from Blue Owl Capital and Structural Capital.

- Unusual, a San Francisco-based platform designed to change how AI talks about brands and products, raised $3.6 million in funding from BoxGroup, Long Journey Ventures, Y Combinator, and others.

PRIVATE EQUITY

- Align Capital Partners acquired Armko Industries, a Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas-based building envelope, roofing, and waterproofing consulting services. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- J.C. Flowers acquired Elephant Insurance, a Richmond, Va.-based car insurance company. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Oakley Capital acquired a majority stake in GLAS, a London, U.K.-based provider of loan administration and bond trustee services. La Caisse is also acquiring a minority stake. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Wingman Growth Partners acquired a majority stake in InterProse, a Vancouver, Wash.-based developer of debt collection software. Financial terms were not disclosed.

EXITS

- Bridgepoint agreed to acquire Interpath, a London, U.K.-based restructuring and financial advisory firm, from H.I.G. Capital. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Frontline Road Safety, a portfolio company of Bain Capital, acquired Surface Preparation Technologies, a New Kingstown, Pa.-based road safety company, from Dominus Capital. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- TPG acquired a majority stake in Trustwell, a Beaverton, Ore.-based developer of regulatory, compliance, and traceability software for the food industry, from The Riverside Company. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

OTHERS

- Coinbase agreed to acquire The Clearing Company, a San Francisco-based prediction markets company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- dormakaba agreed to acquire Avant-Garde Systems, a Clarksville, Ind.-based turnstile control company. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

IPOS

- Aktis Oncology, a Boston, Mass.-based biotech company focused on solid tumors, plans to raise up to $212.4 million in an offering of 11.8 million shares priced between $16 and $18 on the Nasdaq. The company posted $6 million in revenue for the year ended Sept. 30. MPM BioImpact, Vida Ventures, EcoR1 Capital, and Blue Owl Capital Holdings back the company. 

FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS

- Antler, a Singapore-based venture capital firm, raised $160 million for its second fund focused on early-stage companies in AI and other sectors.

PEOPLE

- Menlo Ventures, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based venture capital firm, promoted Deborah Carrillo to partner. 

- Spectrum Equity, a Boston, Mass., San Francisco, and London, U.K.-based growth equity firm, promoted Michael Radonich and Matt Neidlinger to managing director.