Amid massive disruptions to global trade, the world is realigning itself as countries look to integrate more regionally, according to Mastercard chair Merit Janow.
At the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, she said trade has actually remained resilient, even as the world muddles through a period of fragmentation and heightened uncertainty.
“Deregulation, re-globalization rather than massive de-globalization, I think, is what’s happening,” said Janow, who is also a former U.S. Trade Representative official. “So you’re seeing more regional concentrations of trade, and I think you’re seeing new experiments being born in this environment.”
That’s because President Donald Trump’s trade war is hitting countries around the world with aggressive tariffs as he seeks to bring more production back to the U.S. and shrink the gap between imports and exports.
While he has backed off on some of his earlier sky-high rates and reached deals with major economies, the average effective tariff rate remains the highest in nearly a century.
As a result, countries that relied on the U.S. for decades as a top export market must now rethink their strategies and turn to other partners.
“I’m paying attention to what is happening under the rubric of coalitions of the willing because there are a lot of restrictions that are being introduced by governments around the world, and some of them in the name of economic security, sometimes in the name of economic growth,” Janow told Fortune’s Diane Brady.
For example, countries in Asia and the Middle East are seeking closer integration, she added, meaning corporate leaders need to work with governments more frequently, too.
At the same time, Western democracies must reinvent themselves to stay competitive, particularly in Europe, where political processes have slowed critical decisions, according to JLL CEO Christian Ulbrich.
“Other countries just have learned to move along much faster and more decisively, and that’s what we are seeing when you look at the growth rates in the world,” he said.
Trump’s China meeting
But the trade relationship that’s top of mind for global markets right now is the one between the world’s two biggest economies.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a trade deal that includes Beijing easing rare-earth export restrictions and buying “significant” amounts of U.S. soybeans in exchange for Trump removing his threat to impose 100% tariffs on China.
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on Thursday on the sidelines of a regional economic conference in South Korea, where they will determine the final details of a deal.
During the Fortune Global Forum, Primavera Capital chairman and CEO Fred Hu said he would like to see a deal with a tariff rate of 15% to 25%, which isn’t ideal but something businesses could live with—and would be far better than “crazy, insane” rates above 100% that would kill trade and the world economy.
In addition, export controls should be highly selective to allow commercial uses while still ensuring national security priorities, rather than imposing across-the-board restrictions, he said. And China must also be a reliable supplier of rare earths, which are critical inputs for a wide range of industries.
“If both sides come to that, I think it will be in a much better place,” Hu added.