Gold rose to a fresh record, nearing $4,000-an-ounce, as looming US interest rate cuts and the prospect of a prolonged federal government shutdown lifted demand.
The precious metal rallied as much as 2.2% to top $3,970 an ounce in the week’s opening session. The upswing, which follows a run of seven weekly gains, has lifted prices more than 50% this year. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds swelled again last week.
The US shutdown has delayed key data, making a murky economic outlook more unclear. With a lack of official figures, traders are depending on private reports for signals, while the US central bank is also finding it challenging to assess changing conditions. Traders are still pricing in a quarter-point cut this month, which would benefit gold further as it doesn’t pay interest.
Options traders continued to chase a further rally, added even more bullish positions in SPDR Gold Shares ETF. A trader sold $355 calls that were bought in late September when gold was more than 5% lower, and bought $370 calls equivalent to more than 26 million shares, betting on another 1.8% gain by the end of next week.
Bullion has pushed higher this year, spurred by central-bank purchases as they diversify away from the US dollar. Economic and geopolitical uncertainties triggered by the Trump administration, as well as Federal Reserve rate cuts, have also provided tailwinds. Investors have flocked to assets like gold, silver and Bitcoin, in what’s been dubbed the “debasement trade,” fueled by concerns about fiat currencies.
Private investors piling into gold-backed exchange-traded funds have contributed to the latest leg in the rally, with total holdings expanding the most in more than three years last month. Strong flows continued in the first few days of October.
Fund flows have “been nothing short of remarkable,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova Pte. It’s “a testament to how deeply embedded the ‘buy-the-dip-in-gold’ mindset has become,” she said.
Gold rose 1.8% to $3,956.45 as of 1:19 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.3%. Silver, platinum and palladium all climbed.
The “backdrop is intact with the Fed on path to cut rates further, alongside the weakening labor market,” said Ahmad Assiri, an analyst at Pepperstone Group Ltd. However, “it feels like the risk-reward dynamics are shifting and a tactical pullback would be viewed as a healthy phase within an extended rally.”