President Donald Trump’s tax and spending law will add $3.4 trillion to federal deficits through 2034, the Congressional Budget Office reported Monday, a slight increase in the projection that takes into account the final tweaks that Republicans made before getting the legislation over the finish line.
More than 10 million people will be uninsured under the law in 2034 because of the law, CBO found, an improvement from an earlier projection that found 11.8 million people losing coverage over the decade.
The release of the CBO analysis Monday comes at the end of a grueling legislative fight, but at the start of a longer political struggle to come as the two parties clash over the law’s impact on the economy, healthcare and government programs. Republicans are touting the bill as a tax cut for all Americans, yet a recent AP-NORC poll found about two-thirds of U.S. adults expect the new tax law will help the rich as Democrats attack the legislation.
The bill Trump signed into law on July 4 extended current tax rates for individuals that were set to expire at the end of this year and temporarily created new tax deductions for tips, overtime and auto interest loans for new vehicles assembled in the U.S. Republicans also used the bill to cut future spending on Medicaid and food assistance, and to phase out certain clean energy tax credits more quickly.
Democrats were quick to highlight the CBO’s findings.
“Today’s report reminds us of something: facts are stubborn and the facts are clear,” said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. ”The big, ugly betrayal is a loser for the country and will be a loser for the Republicans.”
Republicans say the bill was critical to ensure most Americans didn’t experience a significant tax increase next year. Trump and Republicans have also insisted that economic growth will exceed the CBO’s projections for the next decade, erasing the projected deficits as more revenue comes into the Treasury than anticipated.
Nonpartisan fiscal watchdogs also highlighted the CBO’s latest projection. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said there will be a shorter-term “sugar high” as stimulus makes its way through the economy. But modelers from across the ideological spectrum agree that any sustained economic changes are likely to be modestly beneficial, or negative.
“And not one serious estimate claims this bill will improve our fiscal situation,” MacGuineas said. “Rather, positive growth effects are likely to be swamped by the effects of higher debt and interest rates.”
The CBO said more than $1 trillion in deficit savings is generated through the health portions of the bill, which includes new work requirements for certain Medicaid beneficiaries in states that expanded the program through the Affordable Care Act.
Some late changes on Medicaid were made to the bill to win over holdouts. One of those changes added a $50 billion fund for rural hospitals.
