The Social Security retirement trust fund, which provides monthly payments to retired workers, their families, and survivors of deceased workers, is expected to run short of funds months earlier than projected last year, according to the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees’ report. And without congressional action, younger generations could be left to pay the price.
The earlier depletion by 2033 is due, in part, to former President Joe Biden’s Social Security Fairness Act, which increased benefits for nearly 3 million current and former public sector workers who were not previously covered by Social Security. Other factors include the potential for the U.S.’s fertility rate to remain low, and that workers’ wages will also be lower than previously projected (meaning they are paying less into the program).
To right the ship, the trustees note that more revenue would need to be collected—like through a payroll tax increase—or benefits will need to be reduced. If Congress does nothing to change the tide, then workers face a 23% automatic benefit cut in a few years.
Social Security’s downward spiral has been long chronicled and is a top financial concern for non-retirees of all ages in the U.S. But while older generations—those within about five years of being able to collect their benefits—are more likely to be grandfathered into the current rules if changes are made, younger Americans face a “higher probability that Social Security will look different when they retire,” says Kevin Brady, certified financial planner (CFP) at Wealthspire Advisors.
In fact, the trustees’ report notes that delaying “substantial” changes to the program now means “significantly larger changes would be necessary” later, like much higher tax increases or benefit cuts. Given Congress’s seeming inability to address the problem, that’s changing how Brady and other financial planners are advising their clients and preparing them for the future.
“That probability increases the younger the client is,” says Brady. “Stress-testing plans with reduced Social Security benefits can be helpful, often prompting conversations about increasing savings or other long-term adjustments. In many cases, it simply means they’ll need to save more or be open to working longer, which can be a valid tradeoff depending on their situation.”
Owen Malcolm, CFP at Apollon Wealth Management, says that full benefit cuts are unlikely. No politician wants to be responsible for cutting the program many Americans rely on to get by financially in old age.
Still, like Brady, he says retirement savers should remember that “their energy is best spent on what they can control: early planning, saving, and thoughtful decision-making.”
“Over the years, changes to the program have tended to be incremental rather than drastic. The most recent update, the Social Security Fairness Act, actually expanded benefits,” says Malcolm. “It’s worth asking what’s more likely: that policymakers raise revenue through tax changes, adjust the wage cap, or cut benefits outright? While that may depend on who controls Congress, history suggests that not all reforms or changes are negative.”
