- In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady talks about Trump’s assault on the universities.
- The big story: U.S. debt investors do not like Trump’s “big beautiful bill.”
- The markets: The bond market is awake and angry.
- Analyst notes from UBS on Moody’s downgrading U.S. debt, Macquarie on the end of American exceptionalism, Convera on the U.S.’s “Liz Truss” problem, and Pantheon on the mortgage market.
- Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. The Trump administration dealt a stunning blow to U.S. business with its order to block Harvard University’s ability to enrol international students. About 1.1 million international students enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities last year, contributing $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy. As we all know, many stay on to file patents, found companies, and fuel economic growth.
While the White House’s latest missive may be struck down by the courts, its campaign to vilify elite colleges and immigrants could cause permanent damage to U.S. innovation. Immigration officials have also threatened graduates on short-term work visas—the so-called Optional Practical Training permit—with deportation if they don’t report employment within 15 days of receipt. There’s so much more that it’s hard to list here.
I first came to the U.S. on a foreign student visa. I would not have come in today’s hostile environment. I wonder how many of the nearly 6,800 students at Harvard—27% of its enrollment—feel the same way. But this is not about Harvard. A country built on attracting the best and brightest from around the world is increasingly telling future generations of talent to go away.
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
Top news
Trump’s “big beautiful bill” passed the House and is heading to the Senate
If passed, it would enact tax cuts, ban taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, and increase spending for border security and defense. It would cut spending on Medicaid.
The bond market hates it
Moody’s projects the bill would push the U.S. national debt to 134% of GDP, up from about 100% where it is today. That’s likely to cause bondholders to sell (or not buy) U.S. debt. “People are getting fed up. It’s clear that there are no adults in the room in Washington. Zero. No accountability,” John Fath of BTG Pactual Asset Management, told Bloomberg. “You have to ask yourself, what is it going to take? It’s going to be the price action.”
Trump hosted his crypto dinner last night
The top 220 buyers of the president’s memecoin, $TRUMP, dined with the president at his golf club in Virginia. Their purchases enriched Trump by around $140 million. The White House denied it was a conflict of interest.
U.S. banks explore joint stablecoin
JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and others have been discussing whether they should issue their own cryptocurrency, probably pegged to the dollar. They are worried that the Trump Administration’s enthusiasm for crypto will cause more payments to be made via blockchain, and not via fiat currency.
McKinsey partner imprisoned for deleting Purdue documents
Martin Elling received six months for erasing hundreds of files during an investigation of the consultancy’s role in advising the drug company that fueled the U.S. opiod addiction crisis.
Supreme Court decision protects Fed, not other agencies
A new Supreme Court decision issued on Thursday allows the Trump Administration to terminate agency heads but institutes a carveout for the Federal Reserve. The decision describes the Fed as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States.”
Urban Outfitters warns of tariffs’ effect on fashion
Urban Outfitters leadership told investors this week that tariffs could cause supply chain sluggishness that leads the clothing retailer to fall behind on fashion trends. The company is shifting from air to sea for its shipping, which will add an extra 30 days to delivery times.
JPMorgan launches geopolitics initiative
JPMorgan Chase launched the new Center for Geopolitics on Wednesday to analyze global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine War. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has emphasized the importance of geopolitics in recent months, even telling investors that “our greatest risk is geopolitical risk” last month.
The markets
- Stocks are holding their own this morning in foreign markets but all eyes will be on movements in the bond market over the next few days, as investors express their distaste for President Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” which will likely increase U.S. debt. The S&P 500 closed flat at 5,842.01 yesterday. Coinbase rose 5% on the day, bouyed by investor enthusiasm around the president’s “crypto dinner.” S&P futures moved up 0.22% this morning prior to the opening bell in New York. Bond yields spiked on worries about the fiscal stability of the U.S. The 10-year Treasury hit 4.63% and the 30-year Treasury hit 5.15%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.5%. Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.3% in early trading.
From the analysts
- UBS on Moody’s downgrading U.S. debt: “US President Trump labelled the budget proposal trying to pass Congress a ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’ BBB might be an unfortunate alliteration given concerns about the US credit rating,” per Paul Donovan.
- Macquarie on the end of American exceptionalism: “Foreign asset allocators - both official and non-official - have accumulated USD assets aggressively during the period of US primacy (2012-2024). But that puts the USD in a precarious position insofar as any event that would trigger more diversification of cross-border portfolios would hurt the USD. Diversification remains the USD's bane. … there could be a trigger point where Japan's investors suddenly repatriate their capital from the US and into Japan,” per Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry.
- Convera on the “Liz Truss” problem in the U.S.: “The combination of Moody’s downgrade and the lackluster reception of a proposed tax cut bill in Congress has revived ‘Liz Truss-style’ fears around the US fiscal outlook, pushing long-term yields higher,” per Antonio Ruggiero.
- Pantheon Macroeconomics on the mortgage market: “Housing market activity remains lethargic, primarily due to the gulf between new mortgage rates—nearly 7% right now—and the average 4% rate on existing mortgages. The tariff announcements and environment of heightened economic policy uncertainty also have made people less willing to make large financial commitments,” per Samuel Tombs.
Around the watercooler
Microsoft leader says adapting to the AI era requires ‘activating at every level of the organization’ by Steve Mollman
How one small business owner is preparing for the tariff economy—And her advice for staying resilient by Ashley Lutz
Even the crypto lobby is grumbling about Trump's private dinner for the top 220 buyers of his memecoin by Leo Schwartz
Inside Walmart’s massive new headquarters that is making job seekers 3 times more likely to relocate to Arkansas by Emma Burleigh
VCs eye acquisition and regional markets amid clogged IPO pipelines by Beatrice Nolan
CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Jim Edwards.