An OpenAI IPO: The steps it must take

Like your favorite chatbot, I’m still processing and will share my thoughts later. (Except for this one: Scarfes Bar, you make a mean Sidecar.) Today, though? Let’s get right to it. —Andrew Nusca

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OpenAI reportedly maneuvers for an IPO

OpenAI and Microsoft are reportedly reworking the terms of their partnership in a bid to position the younger company to make a future initial public offering.

At some $13 billion invested since 2019, Microsoft is OpenAI’s biggest backer.

It’s also a key stakeholder in the $260 billion startup’s move to undergo a corporate restructuring that puts it closer to profits—and further away from its nonprofit, for-the-benefit-of-humanity origins.

Open questions, according to a Financial Times report, include how much equity Microsoft would receive in a restructured entity and how much access to OpenAI’s intellectual property Microsoft would enjoy beyond the 2030 end date of its current contract.

Though the companies are “close collaborators,” the report notes, “a cooling between the companies” has been observed since OpenAI’s ambitions have put it more squarely in competition with its largest investor.

Last week OpenAI abandoned its plan to remove control of the for-profit entity by its nonprofit board. It still plans to make its for-profit arm a public benefit corporation—a structure embraced by rivals Anthropic and xAI because it allows them to offer investors equity.

But even if Microsoft supports the move, OpenAI must convince authorities in California (where it is headquartered) and Delaware (where it is incorporated) that its purpose-oriented mission remains intact. —AN

Are AI chatbots eroding Google’s search business?

Investors have been worried that AI chatbots will eventually displace Google Search, which accounts for 55% of parent Alphabet’s overall revenues. 

But trying to tease out exactly how AI competition is affecting Google, and which rivals might be gaining at Google’s expense, is tricky.

Apple executive Eddy Cue said last week that the volume of Google searches on Apple’s Safari web browser had declined for the first time in more than two decades. 

In response to Cue’s testimony, Google released a statement essentially saying that people are searching more, not less, but they aren’t necessarily using Apple’s Safari browser to do it. 

Data from web analytics firm Statcounter has shown a small, but marked decline in Google Search’s global market share since the debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late November 2022. 

Younger people are also increasingly searching on social media for product, travel, and restaurant recommendations, rather than using Google, according to a recent Bernstein Research report. 

How quickly these trends may eat into Google’s revenues is unclear. In the first quarter, Google Search revenues grew—albeit at half the rate at which those revenues expanded throughout 2024.

As Google’s ad chief Vidhya Srinivasan put it in an October 2024 meeting: “The writing is on the wall.” —Jeremy Kahn

Industrial metaverse to reach $100 billion by 2030

The metaverse? What is it, 2021 still?

The consumer version of the concept may have stalled on the tarmac—with apologies to Mark Zuckerberg, who renamed his $1.5 trillion company in honor of the term—but the industrial version is an entirely different story.

A new Wired report notes that the convergence of simulations, sensors, and standards may give rise to a capability that’s actually useful for the corporations who make tangible goods in physical spaces and wouldn’t mind the efficiencies created by a virtual counterpart.

According to the story, Lowe’s is testing store layouts in a virtual environment before doing it IRL, Amazon trains its virtual robots in simulations before real-world deployment, and BMW models complete production lines before actually going about the expensive and time-consuming business of refitting its assembly plants.

According to the World Economic Forum, the industrial metaverse may be worth $100 billion globally by 2030. 

Just don’t call it the “m” word. Real ones know the future is all about “spatial computing.” —AN

More tech

—FTC punts on subscription rules. “Click to cancel” enforcement slides two months to July 14.

—Ola’s latest valuation: $1.25 billion. A Vanguard markdown for the Bangalore-based ride-hailing company.

—Thoma Bravo backs HubSync. $100 million for the U.S. tax and accounting automation company.

—Klarna backtracks on AI. Remote workers replace AI after quality reportedly suffers.

—ServiceNow acquires Data.World. The data cataloging and governance company bolsters the larger company’s agentic offering.

—Insurance for AI chatbot errors. Lloyd's of London will cover a company’s losses.

—LegoGPT designs real-world creations. From text prompts to stable structures, courtesy of Carnegie Mellon researchers.

—Singapore’s plan for AI safety. A blueprint for global collaboration for and by researchers.

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