Wall Street’s recession odds are starting to look like a coin flip as Trump refuses to back down on his trade war 

JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman told reporters in Singapore on Wednesday that he now sees a roughly 40% recession risk, up from about 30% at the start of the year.

But he added that recession odds would rise to 50% or above if President Donald Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs, which are due to take effect April 2, meaningfully come in to force.

“If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up,” Kasman said.

Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the chances of a recession are about 50%, citing Trump’s tariffs, immigration crackdown, and mass federal layoffs, which are combining to cause sharp reductions in consumer and business spending plans.

When economic forecasts start being revised in a certain direction, there tends to be momentum, he told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. And all the revisions are going toward less growth.

“I think we’ve got a real uncertainty problem,” Summers added. “I think it’s going to be hard to fix that. And we’re looking at a slowdown relative to what was forecast almost for sure and serious near-50% prospect of recession.”

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi raised his recession odds to 35% from 15% at the start of the, citing tariffs.

But if Trump follows through with his tariff plans and stays there for more than a few months, that would be enough to push the economy into recession, he told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.

For now, he has hope that negotiations will lead to tariffs getting reeled back in, which is keeping his forecast below 50%.

“But I don’t say that with any confidence with each passing day,” Zandi said. “And of course, the uncertainty around all of this is doing damage.”

In fact, surveys of consumers and businesses show that they are turning increasingly gloomy about the economy amid tariff uncertainty and mass federal layoffs. Even executives in deep-red states that voted for Trump say seeing business conditions are collapsing.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, recession probabilities aren’t as high, but they are rising sharply. Market gurus Ed Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein said earlier this month that they see odds of a bear market and a tariff-induced recession at 35%, up from 20%.

And Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian lifted his recession probability to 25%-30% from 10% at the beginning of the year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday if he could guarantee there won’t be a recession, and he replied that there are no guarantees, adding that his earlier comment of an economic adjustment doesn’t mean there has to be a recession.

“But I can tell you that if we kept on this track, what I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis,” he said. “I’ve studied it. I’ve taught it. And if we had kept up at these spending levels, that everything was unsustainable. So we are resetting and we are putting things on a sustainable path.”

For his part, Trump last weekend refused to rule out a recession, causing stocks to dive, then said days later that he doesn’t see one coming. But Trump isn’t budging on his trade policies, saying Thursday that “I’m not going to bend at all.”

And when asked about the sharp dive in approval in a recent CNN poll on how Americans view Trump’s handling of the economy, the White House defended his economic plans and pointed to his record during his first term.

“Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs,” spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”