Warren Buffett saw the selloff coming and hoarded cash, analyst says, as markets await his next move — ‘patience is more than a virtue, it’s a weapon’

After tumbling more than 10% from its last peak, the Nasdaq remains in correction territory. The S&P 500 also entered a correction, though Friday’s rally pared its decline to less than 10% from its all-time record.

That has highlighted Berkshire’s recent cash hoarding as especially prescient. When asked if Buffett saw the selloff coming, Armando Gonzalez, founder of AI-powered research platform Bigdata.com, said the evidence suggests he did.

“Buffett’s actions over the past year have been a textbook example of positioning for turbulence,” he said in an emailed response to questions from Fortune.

Berkshire sold $134 billion in equities in 2024, ending the year with a cash pile of $334.2 billion—nearly double from a year ago and more than its shrinking stock portfolio of $272 billion. 

Gonzalez also noted that Buffett’s recent comments have been riddled with caution, emphasizing inflationary concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. For example, he warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cause prices to rise.

“History shows when Buffett turns net seller, he often anticipates a period of subpar market performance,” Gonzalez said. “And once again, the Oracle of Omaha seems to have been ahead of the curve.”

With stocks well off their highs, that begs the question: will the famously value-conscious Buffett start deploying his cash by making some big purchases?

To be sure, Berkshire has made some moderate stock buys. But preferring bargains, Buffett historically looks to invest heavily in companies when valuations are low. During the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, for instance, Buffett deployed $3 billion into General Electric whose stock price had nosedived.

In his latest letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett reiterated his years-long view that valuations remained high. 

Gonzalez said it’s possible Buffett could start buying but only if true bargains emerge, noting that his track record shows a deep aversion to haste, even when markets tumble.

“He has no interest in timing the market’s bottom, nor does he chase short-term rebounds,” he said. “Instead, he waits for moments when fear drives prices to levels where the risk-reward equation tilts decisively in his favor.”

If Buffett should choose to finally make a big purchase, Gonzalez expects his next move to be used with a scalpel rather than a “broad-market splash,” if any at all. 

“In Buffett’s world, patience is more than a virtue, it’s a weapon,” he added.

While it’s uncertain if Buffett will go forward with a deal during the current market selloff, CFRA Research’s Cathy Seifert told Fortune she wouldn’t be surprised if Berkshire rounded out its insurance holdings. 

She added that valuations are still not dirt cheap, while the cash Buffett has parked in Treasury bonds is yielding him a good return and the competitive environment for deals has changed.

Additionally, Buffett has shown keen interest in Japanese trading companies, suggesting “a growing appetite for international diversification,” Gonzalez said. 

Since 2019, Berkshire has invested in the five biggest Japanese “sogo shosha,” which invest across sectors domestically and abroad. The trading houses—Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo—operate “in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself,” Buffett wrote in his annual letter.

While Buffett sits on his pile of cash, his deployable funds may grow even more as rumors of a rare Berkshire sale circle.

The Wall Street Journal reported that real-estate brokerage Compass was in advanced talks to acquire Berkshire Hathaway’s HomeServices of America.

According to Berkshire’s annual report, HomeServices has 820 brokerage offices and 270 franchisees in 2024.

Berkshire Hathaway did not return Fortune’s request for comment.