- President Trump holds firm on tariffs, framing them as essential for America’s economic strength, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggests they could be lifted soon. The uncertainty around tariffs is unsettling markets and consumers, with analysts warning of inflationary effects, while businesses weigh the impact on investment, pricing, and domestic production.
President Trump may be holding firm on his tariff stance but his Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is already hinting at retreat.
As America pushed ahead with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as a 20% hike on China and potential sanctions on the EU to come, President Trump admitted there will be “a little disturbance.”
Whether that discomfort would be suffered by markets or the American consumer he didn’t make clear, but added: “We’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”
“Tariffs are not just about protecting American jobs, they’re about protecting the soul of our country. Tariffs are about making America rich again, and making America great again,” the president justified. “It’s happening and it will happen rather quickly.”
Businesses and consumers are already feeling the heat. The S&P500 has suffered several bumpy days after markets in Asia hiccuped at the end of last week.
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee is already preparing for an inflationary hit to consumers, as a vast number of goods and services the public enjoys are imported and thus will likely shoot up in price.
But while President Trump framed the turbulence as a necessary by-product of his wider policy, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is already touting a potential turnaround, saying the tariffs on Canada and Mexico could be dropped as soon as today.
The tariff war began because America wanted immediate action on illegal immigration from the two neighboring countries, as well as moves made to reduce drugs like fentanyl being moved across borders.
Secretary Lutnick said work on the border had been satisfactory but drugs were still a problem.
“The fentanyl deaths are just not declining in the way we expected,” Lutnick told Fox News in an interview last night. “Both the Mexicans and the Canadians were on the phone with me all day today trying to show that they’ll do better and the president’s listening because…he’s very, very fair and very reasonable.
“I think he’s going to work something out with them—it’s not going to be a pause, none of that pause stuff—but I think he’s going to figure out: ‘You do more and I’ll meet you in the middle somewhere’ and we’re going to probably be announcing that tomorrow.”
When pushed about whether that would mean tariffs being pulled back from 25%, Lutnick responded that President Trump is looking at the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).
“He’s really looking carefully at that trying to figure out is there a way in there that he can come in the middle where he’ll give the Canadians and Mexicans something, but they’ve got to do more,” Secretary Lutnick added.
Adding uncertainty
While the somewhat differing rhetoric from Trump and Lutnick may be an attempt to calm the waters, it’s only adding to uncertainty for analysts.
As Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS global wealth management wrote in a note seen by Fortune this morning: “Trump did suggest trade tariffs would create ‘a little disturbance’, which seems to suggest a commitment to keep taxing U.S. consumers. However, there was a faint sound of retreat from U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who suggested that some of the tax burden may be lifted for consumers of Canadian and Mexican products as soon as today.
“Uncertainty is a management style, but there are consequences. Corporate investments and household savings are in part determined by certainty around expectations for the future.
“More visible taxes (e.g. an avocado tax or a propane tax) have the power to affect consumer behavior more quickly than less visible taxes (e.g. aluminum taxes).”
On corporate investment, at least, Goldman Sachs had some better news from analysts.
In a note produced prior to Trump’s latest tariffs being introduced—and speculation about when they will end increasing as a result—Goldman noted that “surveyed analysts reported that policy uncertainty was elevated but most did not expect firms to delay or cancel investment as a result.”
The note added that—per its monthly Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI)—”Uncertainty related to tariffs, immigration policy, and potential regulatory changes was cited most frequently.
“Aside from impacts on investment, analysts suggested that firms might respond to elevated uncertainty or potential policy changes by raising prices or increasing domestic manufacturing and sourcing.”
