- With tariffs on Canada and Mexico set to take effect, uncertainty looms as President Trump weighs final decisions amid concerns over illegal immigration and fentanyl. Markets and consumers brace for potential price increases, with analysts warning of heightened volatility and economic risks.
Donald Trump is once again wielding the power to move markets for better or worse. With the countdown set to less than 24 hours, Wall Street is looking for any indication that the tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico may be lower than feared.
It got no such hint.
Instead, the president’s commerce secretary said the conversations about economic sanctions on America’s two closest neighbors—and key trading partners—are still “fluid.”
At 12:01 a.m. ET on March 4, the White House’s delay on 25% tariffs imposed on goods imported from Mexico and Canada will expire.
The tariffs were initially threatened on Feb. 1 to address what the Oval Office called “the extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs.”
America wanted immediate action on illegal immigration from the two neighboring countries, as well as action taken to reduce drugs like fentanyl being moved across borders.
President Trump delayed the tariffs by a month on Feb. 3, saying both countries had taken some steps to address his concerns.
However, whether Canada and Mexico have drummed up enough action to satiate the president’s demands in the longer term is unknown.
So, while many analysts hope the two nations will face a figure more like the 10% initially imposed on China, nothing is being done to boost their confidence.
“We care about two things,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox News last night. “March 4 is about the border, and both Mexico and Canada have done a reasonable job on the border … but the fentanyl continues to come into this country and continues to murder our people.
“That’s gotta end,” Secretary Lutnick continued. “The president has been crystal clear on those two points. They have done a lot, so he’s sort of thinking about right now how exactly he wants to play it with Mexico and Canada, and that is a fluid situation.
“There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada. Exactly what they are, we’re going to leave for the president and his team to negotiate.”
When pressed about whether Canada and Mexico could face tariffs lower than the 25% initially proposed because of actions taken by the nations, Lutnick hedged his bets: “They’ve done a very reasonable job on the border … they just haven’t moved on the fentanyl deaths in America.
“So the president is thinking about it. I think there are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada. Exactly what they’re going to be, I’m going to leave that for the president to decide … He’s going to think about it; he’s going to put them into place on Tuesday.”
Lutnick also continued to criticize the Chinese government for allegedly allowing individuals to produce the ingredients which go into fentanyl—opening up the question as to whether the country could face even more tariffs after two hikes of 10%.
After seeing the tit-for-tat tariff tradeoff happening between the U.S. and China, Lutnick was quick to dismiss any policy retaliation from Canada and Mexico.
“If they think they’re going to retaliate, remember they have so much more that they sell to us than we sell to them. It’s not even close, this is not a battle that we’re ever going to lose. The president knows it, he does have the cards, and he’s going to protect Americans,” Lutnick added.
Consumer and market reaction
While retaliatory tariffs might not impact American businesses as badly as foreign companies relying on U.S. consumers, Lutnick’s logic does underline the problem that the public will notice prices go up.
After the Fed’s long battle with inflation, and relatively higher interest rates as a result, the notion that prices may once again rise will not be a welcome one.
In fact, 80% of voters surveyed in a CBS News/YouGov poll published Sunday said President Trump should focus more on the economy and inflation rather than his current priorities of immigration and cutting federal spending.
Markets are also not enjoying the changing policy tide, with analysts expecting volatility moving forward.
“We note that the U.S. economy is entering this period of heightened uncertainty in robust health,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note on Monday morning.
“Hasty policymaking across a broad range of areas is making indirect risks to growth harder to ignore. And with the risk of a government shutdown and federal agencies’ reports on tariffs due in the coming weeks, we believe volatility is likely to rise.”
“If U.S. President Trump’s threats were believed, they are proposing the largest increase in U.S. taxes for decades. Markets do not believe the threats,” added Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Taxes on imports from Canada and Mexico supposedly start tomorrow, although across the trade war battlefield the faint sound of a retreat can be heard—Commerce Secretary Lutnick has suggested the tax rates were not certain. An avocado or a propane tax would be visible, and undermine consumer confidence.”
