When Target gave a tepid annual sales forecast for its new fiscal year on Tuesday, it quickly blamed “ongoing consumer uncertainty” and “tariff uncertainty,” which its finance chief said was forcing it to remain “appropriately cautious.”
There is no denying consumers across the economy have begun to pull back, and that President Donald Trump’s tariffs on major trade partners including Canada, Mexico, and China has unnerved business executives and shoppers alike. But Target’s problems go deeper than just a jittery economy, and can be traced to a series of unforced errors and strategic mistakes.
Not too long ago, Target was considered one of the big pandemic retail winners, along with Walmart and Costco, as consumers consolidated more of their shopping at larger chains able to fill a wider array of needs. But the retailer has struggled since 2022 as high inflation forced shoppers to rein in spending, and many of its customers found themselves disappointed by its assortment of goods and anti-theft measures.
“While things like out of stocks, aisles crowded with merchandise, and locked-up products may seem like minor factors, they all add up to a subpar experience, which pushes consumers to shop elsewhere,” said Neil Saunders, a managing director at GlobalData. His numbers suggest that those problems sent many Target shoppers right into Amazon’s arms.
Target also lost critical market share to Walmart when the latter decided to focus on its grocery business as inflation began to skyrocket; more than half of the company’s revenue now comes from food and household items. By contrast, shoppers go to Target for “fill in” trips, where they buy a few items they need rather than a week’s worth of groceries.
The company is also much more reliant than its competitors on so-called discretionary items, or nice-to-haves rather than must-haves, which consumers are faster to drop when they need to tighten their belt. Target has lowered prices on 10,000 items, the company said on Tuesday, but Walmart has been much more effective at winning over budget shoppers.
“Walmart just keeps hammering away at its low-price message,” John Zolidis, founder and president of Quo Vadis Capital, wrote in a research note.
And finally, Target has given shoppers cultural whiplash after leaning in and then pulling back from progressive ideals. That was the case with LGBTQ Pride clothing, which it scaled back in 2023 after a backlash. It also recently withdrew from diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, which it had long touted. Many customers are now threatening to boycott the company, and the brouhaha has at times overwhelmed Target’s messaging on other topics, says Zolidis.
“Instead of a store known for innovative collabs with designers at accessible prices, it has recently been in the news primarily for flip-flopping positions on sensitive politically charged topics, upsetting those on both sides along the way,” Zolidis wrote.
It isn’t all bad news for Target, though. Its growth over the holidays shows there is a deep reservoir of goodwill with consumers, and it plans to unveil new collaborations with Warby Parker and Champion. The company also announced on Tuesday a road map for adding $15 billion to its sales by 2030, on top of the $106 billion it raked in this year. That plan addresses many analysts’ criticisms of the company over the past few years, including an outdated feel to stores, a lack of new brands, and faster lead times in designing and producing its clothing store brands.
But for Target to turn things around, it will have to be lucid about its own errors rather than blaming weak business on the larger macro environment.
“The challenge and opportunity for management is to reset the business with a much bolder vision backed by proper investments,” Saunders wrote.
