California regulators just scrapped a plan to move trucks away from diesel. It’s a sign of what’s to come. Climate policy, as we know it, is falling apart. And now back in power, Donald Trump will take a wrecking ball to what’s left.
But that’s not a disaster. It’s an opportunity. For years, climate action has been failing. It’s been a mess of promises and pledges, lengthy conferences, and targets set for dates far in the future. Yes, the motivations have been the right ones. But the fact is that all the while, emissions have kept going up. Our data at Kayrros shows methane leaks from the oil and gas industry are still increasing, despite global promises to cut them. The climate agenda is broken.
Trump isn’t the cause of this failure. He’s a symptom of voter frustration. Many see climate policies that hurt them—higher energy bills, more red tape, bans on gas stoves, electric vehicle “mandates”—and yet the climate crisis gets worse. They see symbolic solutions, like carbon offsets that move emissions elsewhere, or EVs that rely on a fossil-fuel-powered grid. It’s no wonder many people are losing patience.
Trump’s first term proved he is willing to break with orthodoxy. He pulled out of the Paris Agreement, yet U.S. emissions kept falling, largely due to market forces. He cut regulations, yet American firms led the world in energy innovation. His second term will likely see more of the same: less bureaucracy, fewer grandiose pledges, and more skepticism toward green subsidies and global climate deals.
Who can blame those who think this is bad news for the planet? It flies in the face of what we’re used to. But it doesn’t have to be. In fact, it’s a chance to fix what is broken. The focus outside the U.S. now must shift from lofty goals to hard realities. Fossil fuels aren’t vanishing overnight. Pretending otherwise just leads to bad policy—bans, mandates, and subsidies that ignore the fact that people and businesses still need reliable, affordable energy—and animates climate denialists, who can exploit people’s frustrations.
The answer isn’t more top-down control from the world’s governments. It’s smarter climate action. Hitting methane super-emitters is a perfect example. A tiny number of leaks from these account for a huge share of global warming. The technology to find and fix them already exists. Satellites can spot emissions in real time; AI and geoanalytics can make sense of the data. Targeted policies, like fines for the worst offenders, akin to speeding tickets for those who drive too fast, would cut emissions quickly, without disrupting energy supply.
But market solutions, not bureaucracy, must lead the way. The private sector is already ahead of governments in numerous respects. Companies are using AI and satellite data to track emissions with precision. Investors are shifting money toward efficient, low-carbon solutions because they see opportunity, not because a regulator told them to. Firms are investing in breakthrough low-carbon technologies, from advanced battery storage to small modular reactors and next-generation carbon capture systems, because they see a clear business case. As the cost of clean technology falls and consumer demand for sustainability grows, companies that fail to adapt will be left behind.
At the same time, energy firms are innovating to improve the efficiency of fossil fuel extraction and consumption. Reducing methane leaks, improving refining techniques, and developing hybrid energy solutions all lower emissions without cutting off the energy supply that people still need. These are the kinds of practical, high-impact measures that actually make a difference.
Any government climate policy should be just as hard-headed and data-driven. That means ditching wishful thinking and embracing pragmatism. It means making polluters pay in ways that are easy to enforce. It means investing in breakthrough technologies that bring down emissions without killing industries. It means focusing on what works rather than what sounds good, or would work in an ideal world. And it means abandoning those marginal policies that upset consumers, punish businesses, and make little or no difference to the state of the climate.
A second Trump term will not be the end of climate action, for the simple reason that the climate crisis is real, and getting worse, and we are experiencing its effects more and more. But it will be the end of climate theater. And that’s a good thing. We now have a chance to reset: to build a strategy that is effective, realistic, and, for the most part, independent of politics. That is what the planet needs.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
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- To help save the climate, CEOs need to become ‘Chief Coalition Builders ’
- The winning fight against climate change lies at the intersection of environmentalism and economics
