JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon isn’t hugely optimistic about the state of global politics. In fact, he thinks it’s the biggest threat facing the economy.
But he now fears conflicts in the likes of Ukraine and the Middle East have begun a chain of events that may spiral into a third world war.
Speaking at the Institute of International Finance last week, Dimon said the outlook on the next quarter and whether the U.S. will have a hard or soft landing is a “teeny” matter compared with geopolitics.
Russia, North Korea, and Iran—a trio Dimon previously labeled as an “evil axis”—as well as China, are actively working together to “dismantle” the systems set up by the allies following World War II such as NATO, he added.
“And they’re talking about doing it now,” he said in a recording obtained by Fortune. “They’re not talking about waiting 20 years. And so the risk of this is extraordinary if you read history.”
Referencing a Washington Post article, Dimon continued, “World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries.”
“Mistakes happen,” he added. “Look at how we tripped into World War II. When Czechoslovakia was split up—sounds a little like Ukraine—that was the end of it. Until they invaded Poland.
“We shan’t be naive. What we should be thinking about is we can’t take the chance this will resolve itself. We have to make sure that we are involved in doing the right things to get it resolved properly.”
Luckily for those watching the news with a sense of impending doom, Dimon did have some faith that all-out war isn’t a foregone conclusion.
“It may diminish over time,” the Wall Street veteran added. There may be “armistices struck” in the likes of Ukraine and the Middle East.
Of course, the man who runs America’s biggest bank with a military tactic called the “OODA loop”—analyzing potential scenarios from every standpoint—isn’t betting on the situation improving.
Dimon, who was paid $36 million for his work in 2023, takes his concerns to the board of the financial giant.
“I talk about the risk to us if those things go south,” Dimon said. “We run scenarios that would shock you. I don’t even want to mention them.”
Nuclear concern outweighs climate change
Dimon also placed the nuclear threat out of Russia—and indeed any potential adversary—at the top of the list of concerns.
“We’ve never had a situation where a man [Putin] is threatening nuclear blackmail. That: ‘If your military starts to win, we’re rolling out the nuclear weapons’ type of thing,” said Dimon.
“If that doesn’t scare you, it should.”
Nuclear proliferation—the continued spread of nuclear weapons being obtained by countries that don’t currently have them—is the “biggest risk mankind faces,” Dimon continued.
“It’s not climate change, it’s nuclear proliferation,” he doubled down. “We’ve got to be very careful about what we’re trying to accomplish in the next couple of years.”
If the spread of nuclear powers continues, “it’s just a matter of time before these things are going off in major cities around the world,” Dimon said. “I think we have to just have clarity and subordinate a lot of things to make sure this ends up right.”
