JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon makes a point of focussing on the big picture. It’s why he’s dismissive of individual Fed rate cuts and isn’t sold on a soft landing scenario. Instead, he’s concerned with the major factors influencing the economy over the next century.
Dimon has previously warned that geopolitical tensions are the top threat facing the U.S. economy, and his opinion has’t changed.
In fact, global tensions are now so paramount that they “dwarf” any other issues on the table.
Speaking at the 2024 Financial Markets Quality (FMQ) Conference in Washington yesterday, the billionaire banking boss said: “The most important thing that dwarfs all other things, that’s…far more important today than it’s been probably since 1945, is this war in Ukraine, what’s going on in Israel, in the Middle East, America’s relations with China.”
The Wall Street veteran described these situations as an “attack fundamentally on the rule of law that was set up after World War Two.”
The 68-year-old also highlighted the human cost of conflicts like the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Since Russia’s invasion of the European nation of Ukraine in February 2022, one million people are estimated to have died or been injured.
Ukrainian authorities also believe more than 19,000 children have been deported or forcibly displaced into Russian territory, with less than 400 returned to their families. Russian authorities have reportedly insisted the children are being sent to their nation to keep them safe.
“Iran, North Korea and Russia I think you can legitimately call them [an] evil axis,” he continued.
The phrase axis of evil was first used by President George W. Bush in 2002, used to describe the tendencies of Iran, North Korea and Iraq which “threaten the peace of the world.”
Dimon added this axis is “working every day [on] how to make it worse for the Western world and for America.”
The China question
Dimon has previously stated he believes America and China need to continue to work together, and is hopeful both nations come to the negotiating table knowing what they have to offer.
The 68-year-old banker added China doesn’t form part of the axis of evil but is currently on the “wrong side” of the tension as far as he’s concerned.
Dimon’s analysis echoes that of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, who told the BBC that China is “trying to have it both ways” by supporting both Putin’s war in Ukraine and attempting to continue trading with Europe, and this “cannot go on.”
China is “sharing a lot of technologies, [like] micro-electronics, which are key for Russia to build missiles, weapons they use against Ukraine”, Stoltenberg said, adding that “at some stage, we should consider some kind of economic cost if China doesn’t change their behavior.”
Global tensions may affect the “free and democratic world for the next hundred years” Dimon continued.
“That’s the most important thing. People are overly focussed on [will we] have a soft landing, a hard landing. Honestly most of us have been through all that stuff before,” said Dimon—who was paid $36 million for his work in 2023. “It doesn’t matter as much.”
Geopolitics “may very well” impact the economy, he continued, citing supply issues with oil and food as well as migration.
“It’s ratcheting up folks,” Dimon added. “And it takes really strong American leadership and Western world leadership to do something about it. That’s my number one concern that dwarfs any other one, and dwarfs any other one I’ve had since I’ve been working.”
