Between the regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrency companies, increasing unease over the impact of artificial intelligence on humanity, and the FTC’s intense scrutiny on M&A deals, this has been a year for the books.
Now what? Each year, Term Sheet asks Bradley Tusk, the cofounder and CEO of Tusk Venture Partners, to predict which regulatory battles will be most important for tech companies over the next 12 months and how they will ultimately play out.
Tusk, a former campaign manager for Michael Bloomberg, made a name for himself by successfully lobbying for Uber when Bill de Blasio was trying to cap the number of rideshares in New York. Now Tusk runs the early-stage venture capital firm Tusk Venture Partners as well as the political consultancy firm Tusk Strategies.
Here’s what he predicts for 2024:
AI
—Expect limited federal action: nothing from Congress apart from more “working groups” and lip service. The federal government still hasn’t effectively regulated Web 2.0 and 3.0—forget about AI.
—States will start stepping in and trying to regulate AI—especially big ones like CA, TX, FL, and NY—but, to the extent that anything passes, it will likely be speculative and performative. The reality is that no one knows what types of regulations are needed to govern generative AI and most applications of AI are already regulated industry by industry.
—The EU will lead, and litigation in Europe will define the path forward, for better or worse.
Healthcare
—GLP-1 demand will continue to outstrip supply, even as companies ramp up production. Policymakers will have to figure out ways to tamp down demand, ensure that weight loss drugs are being prescribed correctly, or incentivize increases in production (or all three at once).
—A federal crackdown on telehealth advertising could be coming.
—Policymakers will look to expand mental health programs wherever possible. Mental healthcare is broadly popular and ripe for reform and additional funding. The internet, and society more broadly, are exacerbating mental health crises and the presidential election will make it much worse.
Gig Economy
—The 1099 vs. W2 policy debate is largely dead in the water. Labor has deprioritized the issue and identified Amazon and Starbucks as targets where they can make a bigger impact than with gig economy companies.
—Expect more fights between Online Food Ordering (OFO) companies like DoorDash and Seamless and municipalities over delivery driver working conditions and pay. The OFOs are in a tough spot with few options but to remove tipping—hard to mobilize their users to fight a minimum wage for delivery workers, but expect some to try.
Fintech
—Effective soft landing and dropping rates could lead to another boom in retail investing and market volatility that regulators are unprepared for.
—Despite a potential comeback for crypto asset prices, SBF has left the industry impotent when it comes to advancing their policy agenda in Congress. The exit of Rep. McHenry, a major advocate for crypto and Financial Services Committee Chair, is also a big blow. With the SEC firmly in the driver’s seat, don’t expect any wins for crypto next year.
Transportation
—There will be more scrutiny of AVs in wake of Cruise’s failure—and more preemptive bans as the public sees them as unsafe. It will be an uphill battle for companies. Meanwhile, ADAS systems like Tesla’s Autopilot or GM’s Supercruise will grow more sophisticated and completely unchecked from a regulatory standpoint. The quickest path to AV adoption is by leaving the driver in the driver’s seat.
—A major US city, likely Los Angeles, will move forward on permitting and construction for vertiport infrastructure to support eVTOL air taxi services. Messy local fights will result and companies like Joby and Archer will face their first big political test beyond FAA certification.
Drugs
—Some left-leaning jurisdictions may take additional decriminalization actions on things like psychedelics, but 2024 is likely to see more law and order-focused policies. Don’t expect too much momentum here on legalization and decriminalization by legislators and/or referenda.
—If the DEA takes the recommendation of HHS and moves marijuana from a schedule 1 to schedule 3 drug, expect more Fortune 500 companies to feel comfortable dipping their toes into cannabis products.
—Cannabis banking reform is a rare possibility for bipartisan action, especially if the DEA takes action on rescheduling.
Antitrust
—Lina Khan and the FTC will give Amazon more trouble than they expected in their upcoming antitrust litigation.
A programming note…I am as we speak putting the finishing touches on the Crystal Ball Edition. Because so many of you (more than 170!) sent thoughts on what to expect for the new year, I’ve decided to do something a little different this year. Come the first week of January, Term sheet will be running a Crystal Ball Week for the first time—where we’ll run predictions from our readers each day. Until then, we’re taking a short break for the holidays. You’ll see us back in your inboxes on Jan. 2.
Wishing you and yours a happy holiday season! See you in January,
Jessica Mathews
Twitter: @jessicakmathews
Email: jessica.mathews@fortune.com
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Joe Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.
VENTURE DEALS
- Vestwell, a New York City-based platform for retirement, health, education, and other savings programs, raised $125 million in Series D funding. Lightspeed Venture Partners led the round and was joined by Fin Capital, Primary Venture Partners, and others.
- Arkon Energy, a Sydney, Australia-based owner and operator of data centers, raised $110 million in funding. Bluesky Capital Management led the round and was joined by Kestrel 0x1, Nural Capital, and Florence Capital.
- Addressable, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based designed to help marketers to target Web3 users, raised $6 million in new funding from BITKRAFT, Karatage, Viola Ventures, Fabric Ventures, Mensch Capital Partners, North Island Ventures.
- UltiHash, a San Francisco-based provider of data storage solutions designed to make data storage more sustainable, raised $2.5 million in pre-seed funding. Inventure led the round and was joined by PreSeedVentures, Tiny VC, Futuristic VC, and others.
PRIVATE EQUITY
- Ally Waste Services, backed by RF Investment Partners, acquired Waste Consolidators, a Phoenix, Ariz.-based provider of bulk waste collection services. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Monomoy Capital Partners agreed to acquire Waupaca Foundry, a Waupaca, Wis.-based supplier of cast and machined iron castings for the automotive, commercial vehicle, and other industrial markets. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- OptiGroup, backed by FSN Capital, acquired Top Service GmbH, a Neufahrn bei Freising, Germany-based distributor of food packaging, cleaning & hygiene products, and tabletop products. Financial terms were not disclosed.
EXITS
- Apheon acquired a majority stake in Salpa, a San Giustino, Italy-based producer of ingredients for the ice cream, dairy, and confectionary sectors, from the Cherubini Family and Equinox. Financial terms were not disclosed.
OTHER
- Houlihan Lokey agreed to acquire Triago Management Development, a Paris, France-based advisor for private equity firms. Financial terms were not disclosed.
IPOS
- Aspen Insurance Holdings, a Hamilton, Bermuda-based provider of property & casualty insurance and reinsurance, filed to go public. The company posted $2.9 billion in revenue for the year ending June 30, 2023. Highlands Bermuda Holdco backs the company.
FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS
- Red Cell Partners, a McLean, Va.-based incubation fund raised $91 million for its first fund focused on defense and healthcare companies.
PEOPLE
- Vista Equity Partners, an Austin, Texas-based private equity firm, promoted Abhay Puskoor and Ben Benson to managing director of private equity for Vista's Endeavor Fund.
- Evercore, a New York City-based investment bank, hired Tammy Kiely as senior managing director in the technology investment banking practice. Formerly, she was with Goldman Sachs.
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