To find out, Fortune once again ran a CEO survey, conducted in collaboration with Deloitte. We invited the top executive at Fortune 500 companies, Fortune Global 500 companies, and some members of our global Fortune community to participate.
In total, 143 CEOs representing more than 15 industries responded to the survey. It was fielded in June.
The numbers to know
43%
- …of CEOs say they expect their firm’s growth to be strong (34%) or very strong (9%) over the coming 12 months. Another 47% said modest, while 11% said either weak (11%) or very weak (0%).
38%
- …of CEOs have a “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” outlook of the global economy over the next 12 months. That figure was 76% when we asked them the same question in October 2022.
79%
- …of CEOs expect generative A.I. investments to increase efficiencies. While only 31% say it’s likely A.I. investments improve risk management.
57%
- …of CEOs expect inflation to disrupt their businesses over the next 12 months. The same percentage said the same thing about “geopolitical instability.”
Big picture
CEOs are less bearish today. Back in the fall, a staggering 76% of CEOs polled said they had a “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” 12-month outlook of the global economy. However, when asked the same question in June, only 38% were still “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic.”
A few deeper takeaways
The interest rate shock is waning. Kind of.
Not long after the Federal Reserve began jacking up interest rates in spring 2022, sentiment among business leaders nosedived. It makes sense: After all, Fed inflation-fighting campaigns usually conclude with a full-blown recession.
However, this spring, sentiment among CEOs began to improve. As of June, 38% of CEOs have a “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” 12-month outlook of the global economy. Back in October, 76% of CEOs held a “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” view.
And just 6% of CEOs have a “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” view for their own company’s 12-month outlook. However, that doesn’t mean the coast is clear.
Earlier this year, Fed board governor Christopher Waller said there’s about a nine- to 12-month lag between a Federal Reserve policy move and its impact on the broader economy. The first Fed hike (March 2022) was 16 months ago, while the most recent hike (May 2023) was just two months ago. That’s why some CEOs aren’t ready to declare victory just yet.
CEOs think A.I. investments will pay off.
According to our poll, 79% of CEOs believe that A.I. investments will significantly enhance business efficiencies. This optimism likely stems from the remarkable capabilities demonstrated by A.I. models like ChatGPT.
However, this success has also put CEOs under greater pressure to capitalize on A.I.’s potential.
With 75% of CEOs convinced that A.I. investments can automate manual operations, the race to adopt and integrate A.I. technologies into their business models will continue to intensify.
A.I. is already here.
Among the CEOs we surveyed, 40% said they’re either evaluating or experimenting with predictive A.I. While 56% of CEOs said they’re either evaluating or experimenting with generative A.I.