Indeed we might, according to a new report from a United Nations expert panel that examined the outlook for solar radiation modification—more popularly known as solar geoengineering. 

This would most likely involve trying to reflect some of the sun’s rays away from the Earth, by releasing reflective particles into the stratosphere. We know the principle works because we’ve seen what happens when large volcanoes throw tons of sunlight-blocking sulfur into the atmosphere—the most recent example was Mount Pinatubo’s 1991 eruption, which for a couple years cooled parts of the Earth by as much as 0.5C. But there are many, many unanswered questions about trying to deliberately reflect sunlight on a large scale.

That’s because of a gargantuan chicken-and-egg problem. All we have so far is modeling that’s been going on for half a century. No one has yet attempted even small-scale outdoor experiments, because of all the things that could go wrong. But no one can be quite sure what the results will be until we do a lot more research. 

The UN report lays out the concerns in detail. An attempt to create a uniform aerosol layer could result in uneven changes, with the tropics being cooled and the polar regions warmed. Poorly-planned deployments could mess with monsoon seasons and hurricane systems while exacerbating Mediterranean droughts and Northern European flooding. The healing of the ozone layer could be at least temporarily set back, with many health implications. And if a solar geoengineering scheme were to be abruptly halted, “the previously masked warming would manifest within a few years.”

There are also serious concerns about unfair social impacts on those whose backyards are used for experiments and deployments. When Harvard researchers planned to test a high-altitude balloon in northern Sweden a couple years back, to see if it might be usable for solar geoengineering, the plan was scrapped due to objections from the indigenous Saami people, whose representatives said geoengineering was “completely against what we need to do now—transform to zero-carbon societies in harmony with nature.”

A lot of that sentiment is reflected in the UN report, which repeatedly stresses that solar geoengineering is no substitute for reducing carbon emissions, and would not mitigate all their effects—it wouldn’t stop the acidification of oceans, for one thing. The experts are very clear that now is not the time to plan any large-scale deployments.

“There are no shortcuts or substitutes for slashing harmful emissions and there is no better alternative for our peace, health and well-being than a shift to a circular economy, in harmony with nature,” said Andrea Hinwood, chief scientist at the UN Environment Programme.

However, the report concedes, the technology could theoretically start to yield positive results within a year—so if our leaders get desperate, things could suddenly move at speed.

“Should the effects of climate change become broadly perceived to be unbearable, and the political pressure for governments to cool the Earth rapidly become intense, [a solar radiation modification] deployment, at that point and given the science today, is the only known means available for governments that might feasibly cool the Earth on politically relevant time scales,” according to the UN report. 

All the more reason to step up research now, to see what we might be letting ourselves in for. But in the meantime, let’s hope our proven technological fixes and energy transitions can be rolled out quickly enough to stave off that decision.

Want to send thoughts or suggestions to Data Sheet? Drop a line here.

David Meyer

Data Sheet’s daily news section was written and curated by Andrea Guzman. 

NEWSWORTHY

Bing’s chatbot is coming to the desktop. Windows 11 users will have access to Bing’s new A.I.-powered search bot right from the taskbar, Microsoft chief product officer Panos Panay announced in a blog post. This expansion comes shortly after reports of the bot being argumentative and Microsoft introducing limits to chat sessions. But the company is still pushing forward with plans to incorporate the tool throughout its products. Panay noted that in recent weeks, Microsoft has previewed its A.I.-powered Bing to more than 1 million people in 169 countries. Last week, the A.I. search engine was integrated into the Bing iOS and Android mobile apps and into Skype.

The FTC isn’t buying the A.I. hype. An attorney with the division of advertising practices at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission is warning businesses hawking A.I. products not to get carried away in their claims. “Marketers should know that—for FTC enforcement purposes—false or unsubstantiated claims about a product’s efficacy are our bread and butter,” Michael Atleson wrote in a blog post. The post declared that the phrase “artificial intelligence” is an ambiguous marketing term and that the FTC is wondering if companies are aware of risks or exaggerating what an A.I. product can do.   

Internet shutdowns. In 2022, governments and other authorities disrupted the internet at least 187 times across 35 countries, according to a new report released Tuesday by digital rights group Access Now. After a decrease in shutdowns at the height of the pandemic, the past two years have seen an increase, and are surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Causes for the shutdowns include protests, active conflict, elections, and political instability. Places with the highest number of shutdowns last year include India, at 84, and Ukraine, which had 22 shutdowns imposed by the Russian military.

Googlers get a raise. Approximately 5,000 contract employees who check the quality of Google's search and advertising won a raise that brought their pay up to $15 an hour, the Alphabet Workers Union announced on Monday. This comes after the union held rallies and shared a petition demanding that all workers, contract employees included, receive a minimum standard of benefits. The pay bump is expected to start by the end of this year. 

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

How to land a job at a VC firm. Making a career as a venture capitalist is a route that many couldn’t imagine just a few decades ago. But there are plenty that still can’t picture pursuing it, as the industry has earned a reputation for being an exclusive field. If you’re interested, but not sure where to start, Fortune built a guide with some tips on everything from researching firms to making sure your application gets seen. 

From the article: 

Nicole DeTommaso, a senior associate at New York-based Harlem Capital, suggests that if the application is just uploading a resume, following up to the VC firm’s general email with something extra—be it highlighting portfolio companies that you like that the firm recently invested in, sharing your own thesis, or commenting on something the firm has written or put out publicly—can be a big leg up. If "you can just follow up with one thing above what the application asks, you will get on a VC’s radar," DeTommaso says.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Tesla halts rollout of self-driving tech ahead of Investor Day until FSD software is fixed, by Christiaan Hetzner

Millennial parents are saying ‘no’ to raising the next Jeff Bezos—because it’s more important for their children to be happy than ‘successful’, by Orianna Rosa Royle

Move over Bernard Arnault, Elon Musk is officially the richest person on Earth…again, by Eleanor Pringle

Google Cloud adds Casper Labs to growing portfolio of Web3 partnerships, by Ben Weiss

Elon Musk and Tesla face a fresh lawsuit alleging his self-driving tech is a fraud, by Christiaan Hetzner

BEFORE YOU GO

Other new Windows features. The latest Windows update won't just have Bing's chatbot. Users of the new operating system will also be able to connect their iPhone to a Windows 11 PC so that they can receive calls and texts in a preview link. For Android users, the phone link capabilities have been available for a while, but Microsoft added some improvements like making it easier to activate a Samsung's personal hotspot and transfer browser sessions from the phone to a Windows PC.