What if I told you researchers could predict who will quit next? A recent study published in the Academy of Management Journal finds that turnover begets more turnover. And the people who decide to quit are highly influenced by who, voluntarily or involuntarily, left the company before them. As leaders toil with the idea of layoffs, experts say it behooves CHROs to pause and think about what other attrition trends they could inadvertently cause.

Employees leave a company in three ways: resignation, dismissal, or larger layoffs. Sima Sajjadiani, a report coauthor, says each form of attrition comes with its own disruption and additional employee exits. Even the decampments that appear to be innocuous can lead to an unanticipated outflow of talent. 

She and her team were most surprised by the effect that high performers can have on other high performers. When high-achieving employees leave a company, it’s more likely that other top employees will also voluntarily leave. “We expected to see that when high-quality human capital leaves the organization, it influences both high-performers and low-performers equally. But we were surprised that people within the same quality of human capital were affected most,” she says. “High-quality performers are impacted more than low-quality performers.”

The voluntary turnover signals to fellow high-achievers that there are other, possibly greater, opportunities to be found outside a given company. This, of course, is bad news for employers, but Sajjadiani says employers can prevent this bleeding of talent, starting with communication.

Simply communicating openly and transparently with employees (as much as legally possible) about why an individual left or was dismissed from a company goes a long way to calming unrest and warding off a large outflow of talent. “When someone is dismissed, the reasons must be communicated,” Sajjadiani shares.

But not all attrition is bad attrition. The researchers found that when employers dismissed low-performers, employees reported feeling happier and stayed with an employer longer. Plus, other poor performers tended to quit, fearing they might be next.

“It’s contagious. It’s like a snowball effect,” says Sajjadiani.

Amber Burton
amber.burton@fortune.com
@amberbburton

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