• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
FinanceHousing

These bubbly housing markets look like busts—and they just sank Redfin’s flipping business

By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 10, 2022, 6:14 AM ET
Phoenix skyline framed by saguaro cactus and mountainous desert
Getty Images

Redfin is throwing in the towel.

On Wednesday, Redfin told shareholders that it plans to shutter its homebuying program. As it does so, it will lay off 862 employees—or 13% of its workforce.

What’s going on? While the ongoing housing correction has hit the entire country, it’s particularly sharp in bubbly housing markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas. Those markets have gone straight from Pandemic Housing Boom to Pandemic Housing Bust. They’re also the places where iBuyers like Redfin and Opendoor have significant exposure.

These so-called iBuyer programs don’t operate like normal flippers. Instead of creating value through renovating homes, they instead use algorithms to make speedy offers directly to sellers, the service being that it reduces the hassle for sellers. As long as iBuyers can quickly resell the home, things should go smoothly. However, if home prices begin to fall, things can go south very fast.

That downside scenario, of course, is here.

“We notice immediately when fewer people are on our website and fewer are signing up for tours… We’re sitting on $350 million worth of homes for sale that we bought with our own money, or worse bought with borrowed money. And what we always told investors is that we would protect our balance sheet by acting quickly. We don’t have hope as a strategy. We immediately started marking down things,” Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman recently told Fortune.

By the end of January 2023, Redfin expects to reduce its portfolio of homes down to $85 million. And by the end of the second quarter of 2023, all of its homes should be sold off.

Nationally, the lagged Case-Shiller Index shows U.S. home prices fell 1.3% between June and August. However, in pandemic boomtowns, that home price correction is much greater. According to the Burns Home Value Index, Phoenix home values have already fallen 10% from their 2022 peak.

On one hand, iBuyers are getting pinched by housing busts in markets like Phoenix. On the other hand, iBuyers are also helping to accelerate housing busts in markets like Phoenix.

"These iBuyers adjust [home] prices almost like clockwork if a home doesn't sell. So in submarkets where they have a presence they are also price setters in a faster way than past cycles," Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, tells Fortune.

Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman agrees that iBuyers, along with other investors who piled into the market during the boom, are helping to drive home prices down faster this time around.

“When the shiitake mushrooms hit the fan, you [investors] want to get out first. The way to do that is to figure out where the lowest sale is, and be 2% below that. And if it doesn’t sell in the first weekend, move it down [again],” Kelman recently told Fortune. “My take is that because builders and iBuyers account for more inventory, that leads to a faster correction."

Not long after the Federal Reserve kicked into inflation-fighting mode, unsold housing inventory began to climb across the country. As of October, inventory levels are up 33% on a year-over-year basis. However, in bubbly markets where iBuyers are exposed, inventory growth is much more pronounced. In Phoenix, active listings for sale on realtor.com are up 173% on a year-over-year basis; markets like Austin and Salt Lake City are up 136% and 117%, respectively.

For most sellers, there's a psychological aspect to home prices: They don't want to lower their price tag unless economics forces their hand. That's just not how algorithm-run iBuyer programs work. They want out first, and they aren't afraid to cut aggressively in order to do so.

Look no further than this three-bedroom home in Las Vegas. In April, Redfin bought the home for $600,000. Just weeks later, Redfin listed it for sale in at $624,900. But it was too late: The Las Vegas housing market had already moved into correction mode. Fast-forward to November, and the listing just got taken off the market after a series of price cuts brought its list price to $524,900.

Even after all these aggressive price cuts, iBuyers still have a tremendous amount of inventory to offload in bubbly markets. In Phoenix alone, Parcl Labs estimates, iBuyers still own around $1 billion worth of units.

"Their [iBuyers] sales transactions alone accounted for nearly 10% of all Phoenix sales activity in September. As more pressure builds for them to exit their positions, they will likely become more aggressive in their pricing; this will continue a downward spiral until prices reach a point where demand enters to stabilize it," Jason Lewris, cofounder of Parcl Labs, tells Fortune. "All of the conditions are there for a crash [in Phoenix]."

Why are markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas rolling over so fast? Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi points to detached fundamentals. Nationally, Moody's calculates, the typical U.S. housing market is "overvalued" by around 23%. However, the firm says markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas are "overvalued" by over 50%. For comparison, Phoenix and Las Vegas were "overvalued" by 51% and 54% respectively just as the housing bubble peaked in 2006.

Heading forward, Zandi expects U.S. home prices to decline by around 10% from peak to trough. But in "significantly overvalued" markets like Phoenix, he estimates prices will fall between 15% to 20%. And if a recession hits, he says, that decline in "significantly overvalued" markets could be between 25% to 30%. (You can find Moody's forecast for 322 housing markets here.)

Ironically, Redfin's iBuyer woes might make Zillow executives feel smart—or at least lucky.

Back in November, Zillow announced it'd halt its failed iBuyer program—which was notoriously overpaying for homes—and sell off its remaining homes through early 2022. It turns out, Zillow sold off its homes at the peak of the Pandemic Housing Boom. While Zillow lost a lot of money, it could've lost a lot more.

Hungry for more housing data? Follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.

Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

About the Author
By Lance LambertFormer Real Estate Editor
Twitter icon

Lance Lambert is a former Fortune editor who contributes to the Fortune Analytics newsletter.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Beyond the diploma: Skills that actually get graduates hired
Future of WorkWorkplace Innovation Summit
Beyond the diploma: Skills that actually get graduates hired
By Ashley LutzMay 22, 2026
8 hours ago
Sam Altman standing in a lift.
AIOpenAI
The big questions looming over OpenAI’s trillion-dollar IPO
By Beatrice NolanMay 22, 2026
8 hours ago
Walmart shoppers are filling their gas tanks with less than 10 gallons for the first time since 2022, and its CFO calls it ‘an indication of stress’
EconomyRetail
Walmart shoppers are filling their gas tanks with less than 10 gallons for the first time since 2022, and its CFO calls it ‘an indication of stress’
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 22, 2026
8 hours ago
Musk may already be a trillionaire while these SpaceX employees and investors will hit multibillion-dollar jackpots after blockbuster IPO
Startups & VentureSpaceX
Musk may already be a trillionaire while these SpaceX employees and investors will hit multibillion-dollar jackpots after blockbuster IPO
By Jason MaMay 22, 2026
9 hours ago
ta
EconomySocial Media
They created AI nudes that got millions of views online. Now they’re being charged with crimes
By Jake Offenhartz and The Associated PressMay 22, 2026
10 hours ago
Best private student loans in May 2026
Personal FinanceLoans
Best private student loans in May 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 22, 2026
10 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
1 day ago
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
Success
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
By Preston ForeMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
3 days ago
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
Workplace Culture
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
By Sydney LakeMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
McKinsey partner says up to 50% of work hours could be transformed within the next 5 years
AI
McKinsey partner says up to 50% of work hours could be transformed within the next 5 years
By Emma BurleighMay 21, 2026
1 day ago
A 'proudly autistic' workplace expert says putting neurodivergent employees in a typical office is like dropping a polar bear in Austin, Texas
Conferences
A 'proudly autistic' workplace expert says putting neurodivergent employees in a typical office is like dropping a polar bear in Austin, Texas
By Tristan BoveMay 20, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.