China expected to reach renewable power target 4 years ahead of schedule, IEA says
Hello from London.
There isn’t often good news in the world of climate coverage—even breakthroughs at COP26 came heavily couched and qualified—but the IEA’s annual renewable energy report came with a surprisingly optimistic message: real momentum is building.
A few takeaways:
- Over the next five years, renewable power is expected to account for nearly 95% of the increase in global power capacity.
- Renewable capacity itself is forecast to increase by about 60% between 2020 and 2026, to over 4600 GW. “This is equivalent to the current global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear combined,” the report notes.
- China will account for an estimated 45% of that growth, the IEA predicts. And China is expected to meet its own near-term targets—to reach 1 600 GW of wind and solar power by 2030—a full four years earlier than expected.
- On the current trajectory, the EU is also expected to outstrip its current goals for renewable power capacity by 2030, too.
- And finally, even as the rising cost of (literally) everything threatens to pause the downward trend in the price of renewable energy, solar power is still on a tear—capacity is expected to grow by 17% just in 2021, to reach a fresh annual growth record.
Meanwhile, electric vehicles, too, are gaining momentum—current estimates put the proportion of EVs as a total share of cars sold globally at 10%, up from just 2% in 2019.
“So all these elements—the renewables, batteries, electric cars… pace of electrolyzer growth—gives us one important hint,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “A new global energy system is emerging. And it is very clear.”
Of course, these are projections, conditional on commitments being kept and momentum being sustained. And even incredible growth is up against a harrowing timeline for decarbonizing the world’s energy systems. But just as we talk about tipping points in the global climate, we’re also looking for tipping points in decarbonization, and signs that the ship has irrevocably started to turn. Let’s hope we’re finally seeing it.
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