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Good morning, Bull Sheeters. There are patches of green in Asia (Shanghai) and Europe (Frankfurt), and the U.S. futures are ticking higher. Ahead of the opening bell today, we have jobless claims numbers, which could steal a bit of the thunder from tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Meanwhile, gold climbs and climbs.
Let’s take a look at what’s moving markets.
Markets update
Asia
- The major Asia indexes are mixed in afternoon trade with the Shanghai Composite leading the way higher, up 0.3%.
- Investors have been growing increasingly wary of rising U.S.–China geopolitical tensions, and China seems to agree it’s pointless. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told state media a “new Cold War” would be a horrible idea.
- Never heard of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.? The Chinese pharma power is in relatively advanced stages in its COVID-19 vaccine trials, news that’s lifted the stock 256% this year through Wednesday. The stock is the best performer on the ChiNext Index.
Europe
- The European bourses were lower out of the gates this morning, before climbing. Germany’s Dax was up 0.2% an hour into the trading session.
- London’s FTSE is the biggest loser, down 1.3% after the Bank of England held rates steady at 0.1% and warned the economy won’t recover to pre-COVID levels until the end of 2021.
- TikTok chose Ireland as the location to set up its first European data center, part of a €420 million investment.
U.S.
- So much for a sleepy August. U.S. futures again look to extend the equities rally. The Nasdaq finished higher for a sixth straight day, closing at a new record, just below 11,000.
- Fiscal stimulus is top of mind for investors, and Round 2 talks on a coronavirus bailout package are still stuck in neutral with the White House signaling the next two days are make or break. Another batch of dismal jobless claims numbers could bring the sides closer together.
- There’s bipartisan support for as much as $25 billion in new aid for the airlines, and President Trump has given his support.
Elsewhere
- Gold continues to rack up new records, it’s up 0.6%.
- The dollar is flat, off its lows.
- Crude is sinking.
***
Gold rush
The Nasdaq and gold are both hitting fresh records daily. And, if analysts are to be believed, they both have room for further growth.
Bank of America yesterday reiterated its 18-month forecast of gold at $3,000 per ounce. (At one point, the shiny stuff was trading this morning at a record $2,060/oz.) And, it’s looking increasingly likely the Nasdaq will notch its seventh straight day of gains later today.
But Nasdaq bulls and gold bugs are betting on two very different scenarios. The former sees a post-COVID world that’s digitally powered by big data, virtual meetings and a further investment in the so-called fourth industrial revolution.
Gold is rallying, in large part, because investors are wary about the fragility of the global economy in a post-COVID world. They see a world of more fiscal bailouts, low interest rates and loose monetary policy.
As BofA analysts write, “continued fiscal spending as governments are mending the damage from COVID-19, backstopped by central banks means that interest rates will remain low, at the same time as the economy reflates. Financial repression may be with us for a while, so we reinforce our $3,000/oz.”
Given that logic, the gold rally is one of the easiest trades going these days. Gold is a pretty safe bet as long as lawmakers and central bankers are giving the go-ahead to print money and raise debt to bail out the global economy.
The indicator to watch out for, according to BofA, is nominal interest rates on 10-year Treasurys. When the yield on these notes drop, the price of gold usually goes up. Since the great financial crisis of 2008, this correlation has held steady as the chart below shows.
Investors are piling into the gold rally, and making a killer return. But it’s worth reiterating that the gold bulls are extremely bearish on the future of the global economy.
It’s a bet things will get worse before they get better.
***
Have a nice day, everyone. I’ll see you here tomorrow.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
As always, you can write to bullsheet@fortune.com or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.
Today's reads
Tanking tech. Multi-cloud specialist Rackspace raised $700 million in a public share offering yesterday, but it came at a cost. The share price bombed 20%. Fortune's Jonathan Varian explains what went wrong.
Speaking of IPOs. Rocket Cos., the parent of Quicken Loans, is seeing lackluster demand for its IPO, one of the most anticipated tech listings of the year. According to the Wall Street Journal, Rocket priced shares at $18, well below expectations, and will offer 100 million shares. It had hoped to sell 150 million shares.
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Market candy
$813
That's the average global sale price for a new 5G smartphone. That's a good 250 bucks more than I spent in April for a new (not quite 5G-ready) iPhone SE, but it's still a big drop in price from what 5G handset enthusiasts were splashing out a year ago. According to the Journal, at this time last year, 5G phones cost, on average, more than $1,200, showing that prices are coming down quickly as the technology gets wider roll-out.