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Good morning.
It’s no surprise people reach for good news in the midst of a pandemic. If you haven’t seen actor John Krasinski’s home-made YouTube show—Some Good News—I recommend you join the 20 million who have and do so now. It will lift your spirits. It’s also encouraging to read stories—like Phil Wahba’s piece on Ralph Lauren, here—about the broad range of businesses responding to the crisis.
But don’t let the quest for good news cloud your judgement. People predicting a quick, V-shaped recovery are ignoring what’s happening in Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Wuhan. The “return to normal” is anything but. Restaurants and bars remain closed, large gatherings are prohibited, travel is restricted, and paranoia about the virus’ return clouds everything. The wet blanket that has fallen over the global economy won’t be fully lifted until widespread vaccination is underway—probably the second half of 2021.
In the meantime, second-order effects will soon kick in. Think of all the restaurants and retail stores that are closed, meaning property owners can’t collect rent, meaning banks aren’t being paid. Think of the record unemployment, which in turn will make a major dent in consumer spending. Think of the oil industry, the hotel industry, the airplane industry—which not only won’t return to anything close to normal this year, but may find that there’s a “new normal” that lasts for years to come.
For business, that means it’s time to prepare for a long-slog—maybe two, or even three years, in length. For investors, it means the bottom has yet to be reached. In Fortune’s Quarterly Investment Guide, out yesterday, Bernhard Warner puts it in context. Bear markets, on average, he says, bring the market down 32%. This one fell 34%, before recouping nearly half of that fall in the past two weeks. I don’t like the phrase “dead cat bounce,” but it would be a mistake to think the worst is behind us.
By the way, the Investment Guide is available only to Fortune Access Plus subscribers—whose support we need to keep serving you in the months ahead. Today’s a good day to sign up. You can do so here and save 50% for a limited time.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
Bernie out
Bernie Sanders suspended his presidential campaign yesterday, meaning Joe Biden is now going to be the Democrats' candidate against President Trump in November. Sanders said his campaign/movement had got everyone talking about things like tuition-free college and a $15 minimum wage. But he never quite managed to expand his coalition to the necessary degree. For the Democrats, his withdrawal should help avoid in-fighting as the election draws closer. Fortune
WeWork rent
WeWork, which is trying to renegotiate leases, has stopped paying rent at some of its U.S. locations. WeWork was of course looking to cut its costs long before the coronavirus crisis broke—it nearly ran out of cash following its failed IPO attempt last year—but it's not the only company skipping rent payments right now. Wall Street Journal
The markets
The markets are looking good so far today, thanks to hopes that the virus's spread is slowing, but U.S. unemployment figures could harsh their buzz this morning. The Hang Seng rose 1.3% earlier, and Europe's Stoxx 600 was up 1.6% at the time of writing. U.S. futures look in line with those figures, following a 3.4% rise in the DJIA yesterday. CNBC
Gates plea
Bill Gates has urged rich countries to put "a few percent" of their GDP towards the development of a COVID-19 vaccine. Gates: "When you’re talking about making it easier to not have infection coming back into your country, you can make both a humanitarian and a self-interested argument that even a few percent [of GDP] going against that for the rich countries would be a wise investment." Financial Times
AROUND THE WATER COOLER
U.K. economy
The British economy shrank even before coronavirus restrictions took hold, new data shows. The Office of National Statistics said this morning that GDP fell 0.1% from January to February. The fall was unexpected, but, given what has happened since, the country could be looking at its deepest slump in a century. P.S.—Prime Minister Boris Johnson is still in intensive care, though he is reportedly able to sit up now. Bloomberg
European ETFs
The research house Morningstar reckons investors yanked €21.9 billion ($23.4 billion) from European exchange traded funds last month—more than double the record set in August 2019, when the trade war was the big fear. That's a 13% drop in ETF assets, down to €781 billion. Morningstar associate director Jose Garcia-Zarate: "The scale of the drop in assets is quite staggering. This is quite a change from the start of 2020 when we all were placing bets on when ETFs in Europe would hit the €1 trillion mark." FT
Swiss dividends
UBS and Credit Suisse have bowed to regulatory pressure and will pay only part of their 2019 dividends later this year. FINMA, the Swiss financial markets watchdog, had criticized the banks for their previous decision to pay out full dividends during the crisis. Both banks say they have strong capital and liquidity positions. Reuters
Coronavirus scams
Scammers are having a field day during the coronavirus pandemic, so it's useful to have a list of the most common scams, for awareness' sake. Here are the email subject lines to look out for: "Feeling helpless against corona?"; "The mask that can prevent coronavirus now"; "Corona is spinning out of control"; "The 3 plants you need to throw in your shopping cart to fight coronavirus"; "Top 10 best coronavirus prepper gear". Fortune
This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.