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Apple Suppliers Are Bracing Themselves After Unexpected iPhone Forecast

All component suppliers are likely to be hurt by Apple’s “significant miss,” and face “a cascade of downward revisions as this news is digested,” Raymond James’s Chris Caso wrote in a note. Caso reduced his models for Apple, Broadcom, Qorvo, and Skyworks Solutions Inc.

Skyworks shares are down 6% in pre-market trading; Broadcom’s are falling 2%, while Apple (AAPL) tumbles 8.9%.

Raymond James’s updated expectations for iPhone unit shipments flow through to all supplier models, Caso said, and he assumes Apple hasn’t yet made cuts to suppliers, as the firm waited to announce results publicly before supplier cuts last quarter. He didn’t assess the possibility Apple will choose to “end-of-life” one or more iPhone models—as the company did with the iPhone X last year—which would trigger an even sharper production drop.

Caso reiterates his market perform rating for Apple stock, adding that “while the company’s capitulation will help to reset expectations, we nonetheless remain concerned about next year’s cycle, since our checks (and those of others) have failed to uncover substantially new features until the 5G iPhone in 2020.” Estimates for the 2019 iPhone cycle may need to shift to “to drive a bottom in the stock.”

Though Caso cuts his December quarter iPhone shipment estimate to 65 million units, down from a prior 69.5 million estimate, he said “the hangover is likely to be worse in March as the company works through excess channel inventory.” That means a reduction in his “already-conservative” estimate to 42 million units from 49 million.