The Northern Hemisphere could see up to four major hurricanes during the 2018 season, experts are predicting.
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, peaks from August to October, and extends to November 30.
There’s a 35% chance that this hurricane season will be above normal, a 40% chance for a near-normal season, and a 25% chance for a below-normal season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which released its forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.
Overall, NOAA predicts that there will be 10-16 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, and 1-4 of those could be major hurricanes.
JUST IN: Atlantic #HurricaneSeason Outlook 2018 — 70% likelihood of 10-16 named storms of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major #hurricanes https://t.co/yXpag4nQ2R pic.twitter.com/lgzoVaxDK4
— NOAA (@NOAA) May 24, 2018
For 2017, NOAA forecasted “a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).”
This was close to reality: There were 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, of which 6 were a category three or higher, during the 2017 hurricane season.
Table showing how the 2017 Atlantic #hurricane season ranks historically. It will end up a top 10 season by most tropical cyclone metrics. pic.twitter.com/e5fb8cgwn2
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 28, 2017
NOAA touted its sophisticated technology, “from next-generation models and satellite data to new and improved forecast and graphical products,” to forecast storms and help the public make informed decisions.
“With the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is unprecedented,” Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in a statement. “The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”
The tropical cyclone names are as follows: Alberto Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William.
Here are the names for 2018 Atlantic #TropicalCyclones, per the World Meteorological Organization, @WMO: https://t.co/yXpag4nQ2R pic.twitter.com/AAmb8oL6Vn
— NOAA (@NOAA) May 24, 2018
FEMA officials were already warning Americans to prepare.
“It only takes one storm to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare,” acting FEMA Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski said in a statement. “Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have a communication and evacuation plan? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”
