• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
FinanceChina

Why a Chinese Real Estate Bubble Could Bring Down the Global Economy

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 2, 2016, 11:08 AM ET
President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping
SAINT PETERSBURG - SEPTEMBER 04: In this handout image provided by Ria Novosti, President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping arrives in Russia ahead of the G20 summit on September 4, 2013 in St. Petersburg, Russia. The G20 summit is scheduled to run between September 5th and 6th. (Photo by Alexey Kudenko/RIA Novosti via Getty Images)Photograph by Alexey Kudenko/RIA Novosti via Getty Images/File

While U.S. GDP grew by 2.9% this quarter, trouble is brewing on the other side of the Pacific.

Analysts are sounding the alarm about growing Chinese debt loads and a potential real estate bubble that threatens to dramatically slow growth in Asia, and which could be a drag on the entire global economy if it bursts.

In September, Ma Jun, the chief economist of the People’s Bank of China’s research bureau, argued that the Chinese government must take action to stamp out real estate speculation. “”Measures should be taken to put a brake on the excessive bubble expansion in the property sector, and we should curb excessive financing into the real estate sector,” Ma said, according to a translation of a Chinese news report by Bloomberg News.

Other Chinese analysts have been even more vehement. “The dangers of overly inflated housing prices are huge,” writes Hu Shuli, chief editor of Caixin Media in Beijing. “Indicators such as the ratio of mortgage payments to a buyer’s income indicate that on a relative basis, China’s current housing prices are now more expensive than those during Japan’s property bubble, and are close to U.S. prices just before the global financial crisis exploded.”

Chinese policymakers have instituted measures aimed at cooling the overheating housing market, with some cities imposing “local purchase restrictions, raising mortgage down payment ratios, and tightening developers’ financing,” according to Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist with Deutsche Bank Research. He also points out, however, that these measures may have simply led investors to funnel money into property into cities where real estate has been appreciating less quickly.

Zhang recently conducted an analysis of 252 land auctions in 10 Chinese cities. He found that if land values stayed the same, 105 of those deals would end up being money losers, which suggests that developers still believe land values will continue to rise, despite the warning signs. Meanwhile, mortgage loan growth continues to explode, up 88% YTD in September.

The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday also pointed to bubbles forming in China in other assets, from calligraphy to pig feed to PVC used for making pipes. “There are very few places left to invest in the real economy, so the money goes into the so-called virtual economy,” Yang Delong, chief economist at First Seafront Fund Management Co., told the Journal.

Many analysts are predicting that these bubbles, especially those in real estate markets, are presaging serious trouble for the Chinese economy and ultimately for the globe. It’s unlikely that the Chinese real estate bubble, however, will create a financial crisis like the recent subprime bubble in America. The roots of that crisis were that banks lent to borrowers who could not repay their loans, and this inability to repay initiated a chain reaction through the financial system. In China, real estate borrowers have the collateral to repay their creditors if they can’t make their debt payments.

Still, the existence of these bubbles are an indication of the lack of other investments available to Chinese savers, a problem that has troubling global economic implications. The Chinese government has long capped what banks can pay savers, and is also now cracking down on attempts by citizens to move their savings abroad in search of better returns. These policies help the government funnel those savings at low rates to politically important state-owned enterprises, helping to keep unemployment low.

But this strategy also hinders China’s transition to a more consumption-driven economy, and underscores the government’s wariness of enduring any period of significant economic slowdown or unemployment during that transition. Meanwhile, the government and state-owned enterprises continue to crowd out the more dynamic private sector, making inefficient investments for the future. George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen has worried that this habit of papering over slower growth with investments in projects that will not make the country richer in the long term will just make the cost of rebalancing the economy that much larger over time.

This might not matter much if the rest of the world were expanding robustly. But much of the rich world is barely growing at all, so China accounts for nearly half of all global GDP growth. If an inflating real estate bubble—and the unwillingness of China’s leaders to institute genuine reforms—lead to a significant slowdown in East Asia, it could be a problem that infects the global economy as a whole.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Beyond the diploma: Skills that actually get graduates hired
Future of WorkWorkplace Innovation Summit
Beyond the diploma: Skills that actually get graduates hired
By Ashley LutzMay 22, 2026
12 hours ago
Sam Altman standing in a lift.
AIOpenAI
The big questions looming over OpenAI’s trillion-dollar IPO
By Beatrice NolanMay 22, 2026
13 hours ago
Walmart shoppers are filling their gas tanks with less than 10 gallons for the first time since 2022, and its CFO calls it ‘an indication of stress’
EconomyRetail
Walmart shoppers are filling their gas tanks with less than 10 gallons for the first time since 2022, and its CFO calls it ‘an indication of stress’
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 22, 2026
13 hours ago
Musk may already be a trillionaire while these SpaceX employees and investors will hit multibillion-dollar jackpots after blockbuster IPO
Startups & VentureSpaceX
Musk may already be a trillionaire while these SpaceX employees and investors will hit multibillion-dollar jackpots after blockbuster IPO
By Jason MaMay 22, 2026
13 hours ago
ta
EconomySocial Media
They created AI nudes that got millions of views online. Now they’re being charged with crimes
By Jake Offenhartz and The Associated PressMay 22, 2026
15 hours ago
Best private student loans in May 2026
Personal FinanceLoans
Best private student loans in May 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 22, 2026
15 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
2 days ago
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
Success
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
By Preston ForeMay 20, 2026
3 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
3 days ago
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Success
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
By Emma BurleighMay 22, 2026
14 hours ago
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
Workplace Culture
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
By Sydney LakeMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
Microsoft reports are exposing AI's real cost problem: Using the tech is more expensive than paying human employees
AI
Microsoft reports are exposing AI's real cost problem: Using the tech is more expensive than paying human employees
By Jake AngeloMay 22, 2026
13 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.