• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The pig in the python: Baby Boomers are strangling the economy they built by refusing to move or retire

2

The U.S. campaigned to host the World Cup. Now soccer fans will trade their countries' train system for the U.S.'s 'D' rated infrastructure

3

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

1

The pig in the python: Baby Boomers are strangling the economy they built by refusing to move or retire

2

The U.S. campaigned to host the World Cup. Now soccer fans will trade their countries' train system for the U.S.'s 'D' rated infrastructure

3

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Finance

Donald Trump Calls Unemployment Rate One of the “Biggest Hoaxes in Politics”

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 8, 2016, 4:22 PM ET
Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump Touts Old-School Tax Cuts to Return Economy to Glory Days
Photograph by Sean Proctor—Bloomberg

Donald Trump smells a rat. Or two.

After saying last week that he is worried that the November election will be “rigged” against him, Trump, on Monday, argued in a speech on the economy that the unemployment rate, published once a month by the Labor Department, is a “hoax.”

This isn’t the first time that Trump has questioned the validity of the official unemployment rate, or what economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have labeled the U-3 rate. But Trump has rarely talked about the unemployment rate in such strong terms, characterizing the employment situation report as simple propaganda meant to trick the public into believing that the economy is in better shape than it’s in.

Trump hasn’t offered any evidence for this assertion, and over the course of his campaign has claimed that the “real” unemployment rate is anywhere from 18% to 42%. Therefore, it’s evident that Trump’s talk about labor market isn’t rooted in careful analysis of government surveys. At the same time, it’s understandable why some of Trump’s supporters may be skeptical of the official unemployment rate of 4.9%.

That percentage doesn’t factor in all the people who have given up looking for work. It also doesn’t take into account the number of people who only have part-time jobs and want full-time. And hidden from that number is that fact that many of the people who do have jobs haven’t seen significant wage increases over the past decade.

Why doesn’t the Labor Department just count all people without a job as unemployed? Because it wants to distinguish between the truly unemployed and those people who are, for instance, retired, or staying home to take care of the house or family while a spouse works. Counting these people as not part of the labor force is more accurate than saying that they are unemployed.

If what you want to know is simply what share of the adult population doesn’t have a job, the Labor Department has a statistic for that too. It’s called the employment-population ratio.

As you can see from the above chart, 40% of the 16-and-over population not having a job is nothing new in America. Trump’s campaign slogan, Make America Great Again, presumably refers to his hope of returning America to it’s post-war glory, when the U.S. economy accounted for a much larger share of global GDP than it does today. But that was a time when a lower percentage of Americans of working age had a job.

When you study the statistics carefully, you find that the employment-population ratio has much more to do with social factors than the strength of the economy. As it became socially acceptable (and for middle class families economically necessary) for women to enter the workforce in large numbers, the ratio rose. As the country aged and a greater share of workers entered retirement years, the ratio fell.

It’s also true that the Great Recession has affected the labor market in ways that are still being felt. Long-term unemployment skyrocketed and has yet to fall back to pre-crisis levels, and that fact shows up in the employment-population ratio. But to claim that the unemployment rate is a statistic that, as Trump said this fall, “was made up by the politicians for the politicians . . . so they could look good,” has no basis in fact.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Markets rejoice as deal to reopen Hormuz nears, but U.S. forces conduct ‘self-defense strikes’ on Iranian missile sites and boats laying mines
EnergyIran
Markets rejoice as deal to reopen Hormuz nears, but U.S. forces conduct ‘self-defense strikes’ on Iranian missile sites and boats laying mines
By Jason MaMay 25, 2026
7 hours ago
Current refi mortgage rates report for May 25, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for May 25, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganMay 25, 2026
13 hours ago
g
PoliticsElections
Democrats want to run on corruption. Their own stock trades keep getting in the way
By Matt Brown and The Associated PressMay 25, 2026
15 hours ago
g
North Americawater use and conservation
America’s largest oil export hub is so starved of water that it’s been illegal to have a green lawn for 2 years
By Michelle Hummel and The ConversationMay 25, 2026
16 hours ago
g
EnvironmentLaw
You can’t repair your tractor because Hollywood was terrified of the VCR
By Oana Godeanu-Kenworthy and The ConversationMay 25, 2026
16 hours ago
r
Environmentclimate change
Rice feeds more than half the world. It’s also the climate equivalent of 239 million cars
By Hanqin Tian, Jingting Zhang, Pep Canadell, Shufen (Susan) Pan and The ConversationMay 25, 2026
16 hours ago

Most Popular

The pig in the python: Baby Boomers are strangling the economy they built by refusing to move or retire
Economy
The pig in the python: Baby Boomers are strangling the economy they built by refusing to move or retire
By Nick LichtenbergMay 25, 2026
24 hours ago
The U.S. campaigned to host the World Cup. Now soccer fans will trade their countries' train system for the U.S.'s 'D' rated infrastructure
Travel & Leisure
The U.S. campaigned to host the World Cup. Now soccer fans will trade their countries' train system for the U.S.'s 'D' rated infrastructure
By Catherina GioinoMay 25, 2026
20 hours ago
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
5 days ago
Elon Musk's best friend could make more than $100 billion from SpaceX's IPO. His firm is also owed billions by SpaceX
Investing
Elon Musk's best friend could make more than $100 billion from SpaceX's IPO. His firm is also owed billions by SpaceX
By Eva RoytburgMay 25, 2026
19 hours ago
A billionaire and an A-list actor found refuge in a 37-home Florida neighborhood with armed guards—proof that privacy is now the ultimate luxury
Real Estate
A billionaire and an A-list actor found refuge in a 37-home Florida neighborhood with armed guards—proof that privacy is now the ultimate luxury
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 25, 2026
20 hours ago
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
Lifestyle
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.