• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

U.S. Treasury is paying $3 billion a day in interest on national debt, says the CBO—having spent $10 billion to prop up the currency of its top lender

2

Steve and Connie Ballmer are splitting their $8 billion philanthropy into three so the people closest to the work can decide how the money is spent

3

The stock market may be doing so well that it's causing more baby boomers and Gen Xers to drop out of the labor force

1

U.S. Treasury is paying $3 billion a day in interest on national debt, says the CBO—having spent $10 billion to prop up the currency of its top lender

2

Steve and Connie Ballmer are splitting their $8 billion philanthropy into three so the people closest to the work can decide how the money is spent

3

The stock market may be doing so well that it's causing more baby boomers and Gen Xers to drop out of the labor force
Finance

Even Millennials With 401(K)s Will Face Huge Retirement Challenges

Lucinda Shen
By
Lucinda Shen
Lucinda Shen
Down Arrow Button Icon
Lucinda Shen
By
Lucinda Shen
Lucinda Shen
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 28, 2016, 11:21 AM ET
performs onstage during day 2 of the 2015 Coachella Valley Music And Arts Festival (Weekend 2) at The Empire Polo Club on April 18, 2015 in Indio, California.
Photograph by Frazer Harrison—Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

In 1930, economist John Maynard Keynes made a prediction: Better living standards and a richer society in the future would allow people to work far less—just 15-hours a week.

But that vision is all but gone now, according to a Wednesday report from McKinsey and Company’s research division. Millennials today will have to work longer and spend less if they hope for a comfortable retirement. That’s because their investments, including those in their 401(k)s and mutual funds, will gain far less than the investments from the past 30 years. This period of weak gains on U.S. bonds and equities is expected to last for 20 years.

An average 30-year-old in the next 20 years will have to work seven years longer or almost double his or her savings rate in order to match the returns of the past, McKinsey projects.

While the boomer generation’s investments in equities averaged 7.9% in the U.S. and Western Europe from 1985 to 2014, workers just entering the workforce will gain between 4% to 5% annually, assuming that U.S. domestic growth averages around 1.9% annually, and growth in other major economies reaches around 2.1% annually. U.S. GDP growth reached 2.4% in 2015.

The picture for bonds is no better. While the past 30 years brought investors and average 5% return, for the nest 20 years, U.S. bonds will bring 2% returns at most.

Even if the economy perks up with GDP matching those of the past 30 years or technological innovations shoot ahead, returns on investments will still fall short.

[playbuzz-item url=”//www.playbuzz.com/fortune/when-do-you-expect-to-retire”]

According to McKinsey, it’s not that today’s market is abnormally weak—but because the period between 1985 and 2014 was simply a “golden era” of investing in which returns exceeded the 100-year average. Returns from that era were boosted by a confluence of factors that are unlikely to come together again: declines in inflation and interest rates, strong global GDP, low corporate tax, and rapid growth in China.

 

Though already, Americans face a retirement dilemma.

 

Earlier this month, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink pointed out that low to negative interest rates are cutting into retirement savings—forcing workers to set aside more each month to hit retirement goals.

And as a group, Americans going into retirement are are already financially unprepared. The aggregate retirement deficit in 2015 was about $4.13 trillion for all U.S. households, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

And its not just savers that are getting hit by lower retirement returns. If consumers have to save more, it also means less money circulating in the economy and boosting spending. Not only that, public and private pension funds could face a credit crunch and even deeper funding gaps.

“Endowments and insurers would also be affected. Governments, both national and local, may face rising demands for social services and income support from poorer retirees at a time when public finances are stretched,” McKinsey noted.

About the Author
Lucinda Shen
By Lucinda Shen
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.