Leave aside for the moment the likelihood that Apple tomorrow will report the most profitable quarter in the history of capitalism. Or the chances that the latest extensions to its product line—Apple Watch, Apple Music, and the new Apple TV—had a pretty good Christmas. Or that monthly service payments from Apple’s huge customer base may have grown 10% year over year, faster than sales of the iPhone, iPad, or Mac.
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None of that will matter tomorrow. Because what Wall Street is waiting for is not results from last quarter, but Apple’s guidance for this quarter, the one that ends in March. Specifically, they’re waiting to hear how much revenue Apple expects to collect—usually given as range, plus or minus $1 billion—and what that range implies about sales of the iPhone, the product around which the rest of its business revolves.
Apple (AAPL) doesn’t share iPhone sales targets, but here’s a rule of thumb you can use Tuesday when the company releases its March quarter guidance. Take the revenue in billions, knock off three zeroes, and you’ll have iPhone unit sales in millions, give or take a few million. For example, average revenue in our survey of 40 analysts—29 pros and 11 amateurs—was $56.6 billion. Average iPhone unit sales: $55.2 million.
Within those averages there’s quite a spread, from a low of $49.5 billion (45 million iPhones) to a high of $63.6 billion (66.5 million iPhones).
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Since Apple began offering “realistic” guidance ranges a few years ago, it’s always reported at or above the top of that range. So look at that top number to see whose estimates are probably the best.
Below: The individual analysts’ latest revised estimates for the December quarter (For now, due to software limitations, pros and amateurs are mixed together.)
Thanks, as always, to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.