• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
TechGlobal 500

Apple’s $100 billion haircut: What the analysts are saying

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 6, 2015, 7:37 AM ET
Source: Morgan Stanley

With the stock solidly in correction mode despite record quarterly sales, Apple analysts must be getting hounded this week by clients wondering what the hell is going on. Their responses are all over the lot. Here’s what I’ve seen so far.

I lead with Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, who weighed in early Thursday, because she’s a cautious, middle-of-the-road type who backs her opinions with actual research. Wamsi Mohan at Merrill Lynch—whose downgrade got so much attention Wednesday—is a relatively untested newbie, having taken over from Scott Craig in 2014. Berenberg’s Adnaan Ahmed is a veteran Apple naysayer who hasn’t been right yet. Global Equities Trip Chowdhry blows hot and cold on Apple; this week, he sounds a bit hysterical.

Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley: Addressing Investor Debates. “AAPL shares are down 12% since earnings mainly on the back of fears that iPhone units will decline in FY16… We believe iPhone units will grow next year, supported by continued upgrades of the installed base and the compelling value proposition of a discounted iPhone 6/+. Our 3% FY16 iPhone unit growth is predicated on continued upgrades with slowing new user additions. More specifically, only 27% of the 82% of US consumers who planned to upgrade to the larger screen iPhone have done so to-date suggesting Apple is less than 1/3 through the upgrade cycle… We are buyers on weakness ahead of iPhone unit and gross margin expansion in FY16. Rating: Overweight. Price target: $155.

Wamsi Mohan, Merrill Lynch: Although the long term opportunity is significant, we expect near term pressure on shares driven by (1) significant slowdown in revenue growth as iPhone growth decelerates and other initiatives like Apple Watch, Apple Pay, Apple Music take time to ramp, (2) China now accounts for ~25% of iPhone sales (C2Q) and share gains will be more difficult to come by, (3) the stock price is correlated to gross profit dollar growth (Figure 6), which despite the mix benefit of the iPhone will decelerate significantly over the next few quarters, (4) the magnitude of the beats is diminishing creating higher risk to negative revisions particularly as the Apple watch expectations are likely too elevated in 2016 , (5) the iPhone 6S/6S+ are likely to be an incremental upgrade (force touch), but not likely compelling enough for driving a significant change in the pace of share gains, and (6) we do not see incremental capital return announcements beyond the already announced plans in the near term. Downgraded from Buy to Neutral. Cut price target to $130 from $145.

Adnaan Ahmad, Berenberg: The next shoe to drop? “Adjusted gross margins have increased from 40.2% to 42.3% in the last 12 months, ie a 200bp improvement relative to the reported flat gross margins. Not bad, one may think, but herein lies the rub: this is at a time a) when Apple has raised prices on its iPhones (to offset the larger screen bill of material hike) and b) when revenue and volume growth has been in the 30-40% range, which should theoretically give leverage to the model, c) when initially at least Samsung had no product and is now cutting prices on its high-end product and d) when industry growth is slowing. We think group gross margins have peaked, or will peak again soon, and that is the next debate on the world’s largest market cap stock. Sell. $85.

Trip Chowdhry, Global Equities: Slowing China economy is disastrous for Apple’s Business. “We are using the Global Recession of 2008 and 2009 as the proxy for projecting a decline in China’s GDP and the consequential effect on Apple’s business. We are expecting a disastrous China business for Apple and are reducing Apple’s revenue estimates from China for both 4QFY2015 and full FY2016 by 8% (2% higher than the decline in Revenue suffered by any of the closest proxies during the 2008-09 Global recession).” Reduced price target to $155 from $170.

New arrivals:

Daniel Ives, FBR: Taking a Bite Out of the Apple Bear Thesis. “While Apple has apparently become a “battleground stock” since reporting B-plus June results, we have seen this story play out before (e.g., concerns around iPhone 5 product cycle) and believe near-term weakness represents a golden buying opportunity… These concerns are pressuring Apple shares, [but] we are seeing the forest through the trees, as we believe the unrivaled fundamental strength behind the company’s iPhone 6 product cycle (less than 30% of customers have upgraded to date), a massive greenfield China market opportunity, and a host of growing new products/services (e.g., Apple Music, streaming TV possible later this fall, Apple Pay) are setting the stage for the company’s next leg of growth in FY16/FY17.” Outperform. $175.

William Powers, Baird: Remain Positive on Fundamentals. “Multiple concerns have weighed on Apple’s stock over the past few weeks, headlined by tough upcoming iPhone comps. and China sales risks. While a potential China slowdown clearly poses risk, we believe the current fundamentals remain strong with stock historically performing well in the month in advance of new iPhone launches, even in S cycle years. Coupled with what we view as a compelling valuation, we would be buyers on recent weakness.” Outperform. $155.

 

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple (AAPL) coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Tech

SpaceX’s next-gen rocket is the key to its sky-high valuation, early investor says: ‘Starship also enables all kinds of frontier markets’
Startups & VentureElon Musk
SpaceX’s next-gen rocket is the key to its sky-high valuation, early investor says: ‘Starship also enables all kinds of frontier markets’
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 24, 2026
21 hours ago
Dara Khosrowshahi speaks on stage and holds his palms in front of him, pressed together.
LifestyleUber Technologies
Uber CEO says rideshare ‘freed up’ his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he’s one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
22 hours ago
bofa
AIProductivity
BofA says you’ll be 10x more productive with AI. Ignore the 0.1% result so far
By Nick LichtenbergMay 24, 2026
22 hours ago
Inside the ‘stealth wealth’ playbook: How Silicon Valley’s elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
Real EstateLuxury
Inside the ‘stealth wealth’ playbook: How Silicon Valley’s elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
By Sydney LakeMay 24, 2026
23 hours ago
David Bennahum
CommentaryMedia
I was one of the internet’s first influencers. AI just killed the whole category — and created something better
By David S. BennahumMay 24, 2026
24 hours ago
Someone leafs through titles stacked in a library
AIResearch
AI hallucinations are infiltrating expert work—and entering the permanent body of knowledge
By Tristan BoveMay 24, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
4 days ago
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
Lifestyle
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
22 hours ago
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
Real Estate
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
By Sydney LakeMay 24, 2026
23 hours ago
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Success
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
By Emma BurleighMay 22, 2026
3 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
6 days ago
This 39-year-old quit his lineman job during the pandemic and built a $50 million company in his backyard
Success
This 39-year-old quit his lineman job during the pandemic and built a $50 million company in his backyard
By Nick LichtenbergMay 23, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.