In a note to clients issued Thursday, RBC’s Mike Abramsky shares the results of a ChangeWave survey of 2,600 early adopter types. Two key findings:

• 5% of those surveyed said they had pre-ordered or were very likely to buy Amazon’s (AMZN) new Kindle Fire, exceeding the 4% who said they were very likely to buy the original iPad in 2010.
• 26% of those 5% said they would delay or put on hold the purchase of a new iPad.

“Sustained Fire uptake and ‘buzz,’” writes Abramsky, “will depend on consumer/reviewer reactions to Fire’s user experience.”

In a separate note, Rodman & Renshaw’s Ashok Kuman repeats rumors that Apple (AAPL) may have scaled back iPad production by 1 to 2 million units “due to moderating sell-through.”

Below: Comparing pent-up demand for the Fire and the iPad.