• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As U.S. Treasury intervened in the bond market, the Netherlands rushed 86 tons of gold out of America because of ‘geopolitical unrest’

2

'Critical employees will begin to retire': Trump’s new pay plan will deny most federal roles a raise, and it has workers warning of a retention crunch

3

New LA Angels owner Stan Kroenke is quietly America's largest private landowner, boasting 2.7 million acres and besting Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos

1

As U.S. Treasury intervened in the bond market, the Netherlands rushed 86 tons of gold out of America because of ‘geopolitical unrest’

2

'Critical employees will begin to retire': Trump’s new pay plan will deny most federal roles a raise, and it has workers warning of a retention crunch

3

New LA Angels owner Stan Kroenke is quietly America's largest private landowner, boasting 2.7 million acres and besting Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos

Is Apple undervalued at $404?

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 26, 2011, 4:05 PM ET
Google source logo
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Now that the stock has finally broken through the $400 barrier, how high can it go?



Click to enlarge. Source: Seeking Alpha

Last summer, when Apple (AAPL) was trading for $260 a share, we ran an item on some analytical work by Nicholae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris. He had prepared a series of charts tracking Apple’s performance using various criteria, from the familiar P/E (price to earnings) ratio to the more obscure P – $EG (the difference between share price and cash holdings per share divided by annual growth rate).

He concluded, based primarily on Apple’s PEG (price over earnings divided by growth), which at the time was 0.25, that Apple at $260 had considerable room to grow. (Traditionally, any stock with a PEG less than 1.0 is considered undervalued.)

Mihalache returned to the subject Tuesday, exactly one year later, with an article in Seeking Alpha that asks whether Apple at $400 is still undervalued.

In fact he concludes that, based primarily on the PEG ratio, Apple’s shares are even more undervalued now than they were a year ago. The company’s earnings over the past 12 months have grown at the rate of 90% per year while its stock is up about 50%, moving Apple’s PEG from 0.25 to 0.17.

On that basis he makes some forecasts:

“In order to be conservative and to avoid ridiculously high valuation predictions,” he writes, “I will assume further P/E compression (12 and 10) and earnings growth cooling off in 2012 and 2013 (respectively, 80% and 60%). Barring any market meltdown, I predict that one year from now AAPL will be at $550 or more, $650 by the end of 2012, and at least $850 by the end of 2013.”

[The stock closed Tuesday at $403.41, up $4.91 (1.23%) for the day, having traded as high as $404.50.]

Mihalache tends to set high bars for Apple. But in our most recent earnings smackdown, in which we compared the Q3 2011 estimates of 48 Apple analysts — professional and amateur — Mihalache’s were, by a large margin, the best.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Google source logo
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in


Most Popular

Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

    Latest in


    Most Popular

    © 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
    FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.