Analysts: iPod sales expected to decline 7.2% year over year

July 15, 2011, 10:28 AM UTC

For once, the amateurs and the professionals are in agreement

Analyst, affiliationiPods (millions)Date of est.Q2 rank
Ralph Schackart, William Blair9.766/7/1144
Peter Misek, Jeffries9.707/7/1127
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.9.277/8/1133
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights9.227/7/1114
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood8.956/24/1116
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square8.947/11/1146
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.8.904/21/1122
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital8.827/14/1118
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross8.806/22/112
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold8.756/24/1112
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist8.706/17/117
Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model8.707/1/114
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank8.707/5/1137
Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board8.605/9/1113
Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board8.506/24/118
Richard Gardner, Citigroup8.507/13/1145
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.8.477/5/1126
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board8.477/2/1110
James Cordwell, Atlantic Equities8.477/6/11NA
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch8.476/7/1124
Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board8.457/3/1111
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs8.407/6/1148
Charlie Wolf, Needham8.406/28/1136
Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee8.307/6/1129
Corey Forsberg, Apple Finance Board8.207/2/11NA
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray8.207/14/1140
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna8.186/7/1121
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity8.107/5/1135
Shannon Cross, Cross Securities8.107/13/11NA
Navin Nagrani, Apple Finance Board8.006/26/11NA
Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide8.006/25/116
Horace Dediu, Asymco8.006/26/115
Robert Cihra, Caris8.007/11/1117
Maynard Um, UBS8.007/13/1128
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan8.006/28/1120
Gurinder Kaira, Montrose Securities7.907/13/11NA
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital7.817/11/11NA
Scott Sutherland, Wedbush7.807/14/1143
Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital7.756/28/1141
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan7.537/14/1123
Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board7.406/17/119
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley7.356/26/1134
Brian White, Ticonderoga7.217/12/1139

Source: Company reports, Piper Jaffray

iPod sales hit 22.7 million in the Christmas quarter of 2008 and have been going downhill, with seasonal spikes, ever since.

The quarter that ended nearly three weeks ago is likely to continue that trend, according to the 43 analysts — professional and amateur — we polled in advance of our quarterly earnings smackdown.

For once, the two groups are in agreement. According to their median estimates, they both expect Apple to report sales of 8.39 million units in Q3 2011 — down 7.2% from the same quarter last year.

That’s not to say there aren’t disagreements. There is still a 2.5 million unit difference between the estimates of Wedbush’s Ralph Schackart (9.76 million) and Ticonderoga’s Brian White (7.21 million).

But the trend is clear. Although Apple (AAPL) still owns more than 70% of the MP3 player market, the company has shifted its attention to smartphones and tablets that also play music. Even the iPod touch, which according to Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster has accounted for more than 50% of iPod sales every non-holiday quarter since 2010, is getting less love from Apple. This summer, for the first time since it was introduced, a free iPod touch is not being thrown in with every Mac purchased as part of the company’s Back to School promo.

Below: The iPod unit sales estimates we’ve gathered so far and the dates they were submitted. The Q2 rank numbers show how accurate each analyst’s estimates were last quarter (the lower the better).