iPad sales estimates for fiscal Q3 range from 6.0 to 9.5 million

July 12, 2011, 10:15 AM UTC

Mean analyst estimate: 7.9 million. The amateurs, as usual, are more bullish than the pros

Analyst, affiliationiPads (millions)Date of est.Q2 rank
Navin Nagrani, Apple Finance Board9.506/26/11NA
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood9.306/24/1116
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross9.006/22/112
Charlie Wolf, Needham9.006/28/1136
James Cordwell, Atlantic Equities9.007/6/11NA
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board8.907/2/1110
Horace Dediu, Asymco8.806/26/115
Robert Cihra, Caris8.607/11/1117
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold8.526/24/1112
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan8.506/28/1120
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital8.507/11/11NA
Corey Forsberg, Apple Finance Board8.407/2/11NA
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.8.404/21/1122
Brian White, Ticonderoga8.227/7/1139
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley8.156/26/1134
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist8.136/17/117
Jeff Forsberg, Apple Finance Board8.106/24/111
Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board8.106/24/118
Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board8.107/3/1111
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs8.097/6/1148
Ralph Schackart, William Blair8.096/7/1144
Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide8.006/25/116
Peter Misek, Jeffries8.007/7/1127
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank8.007/5/1137
Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board7.906/17/119
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity7.807/5/1135
Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model7.757/1/114
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.7.757/8/1133
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna7.506/7/1121
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights7.507/7/1114
Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board7.205/9/1113
Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital7.006/28/1141
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray7.007/5/1140
Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee6.807/6/1129
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan6.757/5/1123
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch6.696/7/1124
Mark McKechnie, Think Equity6.006/7/1132
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square6.007/11/1146
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.6.007/5/1126

Source: Company reports, Apple 2.0

Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to report its fiscal third quarter earnings on July 19, a week from today, and in preparation for our quarterly earnings smackdown we’ve been gathering estimates from the small army of analysts — profession and amateur — who follow the company.

The biggest mystery this quarter — and the biggest discrepancy in unit sales estimates — is the iPad. The question is not so much how many Apple was able to sell (it sells them as fast as it makes them), but how many it was able to build and ship before the quarter ended on June 25.

Among the 39 analysts we’ve polled so far, the estimates ranged from a high of 9.5 million iPads sold (offered by Navin Nagrani, one of the growing team of amateurs who post their estimates on The Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board) to a low of 6 million (offered by three different professionals: Gleacher’s Brian Marshall, Hudson Square’s Daniel Ernst and Think Equity’s Mark McKechnie).

The average estimate, 7.92 million, represents a 142% increase from the same quarter last year, and would bring the total number of iPads sold in 15 months to nearly 27.4 million. The average amateur estimate is 8.38 million. The  Wall Street consensus is 7.72 million.

We’ll find out who was closest to the mark next Tuesday at about 4:30 p.m. EDT, when the quarterly results hit the business wires. Apple is scheduled to discuss those results in a 5 p.m. EDT conference call with analysts that the company will webcast here.

Below: The estimates we’ve gathered so far and the date they were submitted. The Q2 rank numbers show how accurate each analyst’s estimates were last quarter (the lower the better). [UPDATE: Ticonderoga’s Brian White raised his iPad estimate on Tuesday to 8.5 million, which pushed the consensus to 7.93 million and estimated total iPad sales over the 27.4 million mark.]