• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow

The Matt Drudge market indicator

By
Duff McDonald
Duff McDonald
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Duff McDonald
Duff McDonald
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 8, 2011, 3:09 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE — Matt Drudge has been called many things but, unless I am mistaken, a stock market seer is not one of them. On Wednesday, someone did just that. Or, to be more specific, someone suggested that the Drudge Report is a contrary indicator. Same difference, really.



Matt Drudge, market seer?

Drudge made his name covering Monica and the blue dress, and continues to be a player in the political conversation. Anybody familiar with his site knows there’s one big link at the top of it, and when he links, traffic follows. The enduring nature of his influence is awe-inspiring.

And that’s all he does, if you can believe it. The man has made a fortune, and continues to do so, one link at a time. He is the envy of all bloggers. In 2007, I tried to put a value on his operation, but in retrospect—we concluded $10 million to $20 million at the time—it seems absurdly low. Sorry for underestimating you, Matt.

What Drudge does not do with any regularity is post finance-related links. And here’s why that gets interesting. Paul Hickey and Justin Walters, the ridiculously prolific quantitative researchers behind Bespoke Investment Group, published a piece of research on Wednesday called The Drudge Headline Indicator. The gist of it is this: you might be able to use Drudge in your investment strategy.

According to the Bespoke report: With 30 million daily views, Drudge is arguably the most widely followed news source on the web. Conventional wisdom says (and it is largely correct on this matter) that once financial news stories go mainstream, and pessimism or optimism (it doesn’t matter which) seems to have gone all the way down to the last man, then you would best serve yourself by looking in the other direction. With his audience—which is bipartisan, despite his own right-leaning inclinations—Drudge is as mainstream as you can get. (That is, until Facebook gets into the news game. Which you know it will at some point. Mark Zuckerberg will soon own everything.)

As Paul Hickey of Bespoke puts it, once a financial-page headline has moved into front-page status for a sustained period of time, “it’s probably getting close to an inflection point, whether it’s a bottom or a top.” And here’s the thing with Drudge: he isn’t a happy, smiley kind of headline writer. So when he does finance, it’s usually some sort of horror story. Some recent examples: Economic Horror as Data Plunges (6/2/11), $6 Gas by Summer? (4/20/11).

To the statistics, then. Bespoke compiled 50-day rolling periods of finance-related headlines on Drudge since mid-2003. The day of maximum concentration—that is, the day with the most days out of the previous 50 with a finance headline—was February 27, 2009, with 21. The bear market low happened less than two weeks later, on March 9th.

Hickey also points out that there was a day with exactly zero finance headlines over the trailing 50 days in the summer of 2008, just before the it all hit the fan with Lehman Brothers. No one saw it coming, and so come it did. Drudge’s mood, in other words, is something to bet against.

In recent weeks, finance-related headlines on Drudge have reached their highest levels since the depths of the financial crisis. And for good reason: we have Greece, U.S. unemployment, that whole debt-ceiling thing, and more. Bad news, right? According to Hickey, maybe not. “Ten years ago, a 1% drop in the market was a great time to buy,” he says. “Now, it’s, ‘Ah, shoot, I should have sold yesterday.’ A too-confident consumer is a long way off, and that’s likely a bullish sign.”

I personally have a hard time staring possible Greek debt contagion or persistent mass unemployment in the U.S. in the face and calling it a buying opportunity. Maybe that’s why I’m just a lowly journalist and not a portfolio manager. But according to Bespoke, even my opinion may not be not a bearish sign, but its opposite.

Drudge told his readers on June 1 of this year that, We Are on the Verge of a Great Great Depression. “You don’t tend to see that at the top of a market,” says Hickey. To invert a common phrase, then: Sellers beware. If Drudge is to be believed, we’re in store for one hell of a rally.

(Thanks to Brad Lipsig at UBS for pointing this study out to me in the first place.)

About the Author
By Duff McDonald
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

Anthropic debuts Claude Opus 5 with feature that lets users toggle between cost and capability
AIAnthropic
Anthropic debuts Claude Opus 5 with feature that lets users toggle between cost and capability
By Emily ForliniJuly 24, 2026
2 hours ago
grandparents grandkid on a tablet
AIGoogle
Kids don’t ‘Google it’ anymore. AI chatbots taught them to ‘search it up’ instead
By Catherina GioinoJuly 24, 2026
2 hours ago
Sunlighten Sauna Review (2026): Features, Cost, and Our Take
HealthDietary Supplements
Sunlighten Sauna Review (2026): Features, Cost, and Our Take
By Emily PharesJuly 24, 2026
2 hours ago
Kim Ng broke barriers in baseball. Now she’s giving pro softball its biggest stage yet
NewslettersMPW Daily
Kim Ng broke barriers in baseball. Now she’s giving pro softball its biggest stage yet
By Emma HinchliffeJuly 24, 2026
3 hours ago
lebron
Arts & EntertainmentSports
LeBron James, the only billionaire currently active in the NBA, signs a minimum contract with the Philadelphia 76ers
By Catherina GioinoJuly 24, 2026
3 hours ago
Wealthy man in car
SuccessMillionaires
120 millionaires have signed a letter begging the British government to tax them more: ‘We can afford it’
By Emma BurleighJuly 24, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
Big Tech
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
By Sydney LakeJuly 23, 2026
2 days ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
12 hours ago
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
Economy
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
Real Estate
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 22, 2026
2 days ago
Spain lifted the World Cup, but the IRS still gets a cut of its $50 million pay day as players, coaches and refs all face complex U.S. “jock taxes”
Personal Finance
Spain lifted the World Cup, but the IRS still gets a cut of its $50 million pay day as players, coaches and refs all face complex U.S. “jock taxes”
By Joshua HongJuly 23, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.