Bloggers v. Pros on Apple: Another $2 billion revenue gap

April 14, 2011, 3:08 PM UTC

With Q2 earnings due next week, the two groups of analysts are once again miles apart

The amateur analysts who follow Apple can afford to be more bullish than the professionals who do it for banks and brokerage houses. After all, unlike the sell-side analysts who are telling investors to buy the stock, they don’t have clients who will be angry if the company doesn’t exceed expectations.

But with Apple set to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings next Wednesday, the gap between bloggers and pros that we remarked on last quarter is even more stark this time around, as the EPS chart above, courtesy of Alexis Cabot, makes clear.

Among the 58 analysts we polled in advance of Wednesday’s Q2 2011 earnings call — 14 amateurs and 34 professionals — the difference in their average revenue estimates, $25.25 billion and $23.26 billion, respectively, was $1.98 billion (8.53%), slightly smaller than last quarter. But in percentage terms, the gap between their EPS estimates — $0.95 — was even larger: a whopping 17.74%.

Ironically, it was a pro — Sterne Agee’s Shaw Wu — who turned in the most bullish revenue estimate, $26.741 billion. CORRECTION: The most bullish estimate came, as usual, from an amateur: Traderhood’s Nicolae Mihalache at $26.2 billion.

The most bearish estimate, $21.989 billion, comes from Goldman Sach’s Bill Shope.

Below: The numbers we’ve gathered so far, along with each analyst’s rank in last quarter’s earnings smackdown. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the closing bell on April 20.

For a deeper dive into the gap that separates the pros from the amateurs, see Daniel Tello’s fascinating Which analysts are the biggest sandbaggers.

Analyst, affiliationRevenue (billions)EPSDate of est.Q1 rank
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood26.206.673/27/114
Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board25.736.403/29/11NA
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board25.726.353/25/111
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna25.685.723/25/1131
Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board25.646.453/27/11NA
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold25.516.213/26/118
Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model25.266.323/21/116
Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide25.266.303/30/117
Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board25.186.203/22/11NA
Jeff Fosberg, Apple Finance Board25.006.343/27/119
Horace Dediu, Asymco25.006.213/27/1111
Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board25.006.263/30/113
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist24.796.383/23/112
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross24.736.203/31/115
Robert Cihra, Caris24.525.763/25/11NA
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.24.515.434/13/1123
Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board24.425.873/29/1121
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital24.015.754/12/1114
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan23.995.723/25/1135
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan23.835.213/25/1115
Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research23.805.753/2/1130
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.23.545.103/25/1117
Peter Misek, Jeffries23.505.444/13/11NA
William Power, Baird23.435.384/13/1134
Charlie Wolf, Needham23.415.113/29/1141
Shannon Cross, Cross Securities23.325.464/12/11NA
Maynard Um, UBS23.285.443/28/1137
Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee23.285.423/30/1127
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.23.195.553/3/1119
Andy Hargreaves, Pacific Crest23.145.613/30/11NA
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch23.145.633/21/1116
Steven Fox, CLSA23.005.443/29/11NA
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity23.005.223/28/1129
Rajesh Ghai, Think Equity22.945.333/25/1139
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer22.895.183/2/1110
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank22.855.234/5/1113
Scott Sutherland, Wedbush22.825.053/3/1124
Brian White, Ticonderoga22.755.133/28/1138
Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital22.705.104/13/1125
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray22.685.113/25/1133
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square22.654.951/19/1128
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley22.565.343/25/1136
Ralph Schackart, William Blair22.555.031/19/11NA
William Fearnley, Janney Capital22.224.991/19/1126
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital22.185.023/18/1120
Richard Gardner, Citigroup22.085.153/25/1118
Alex Gauna, JMP Securities22.005.103/16/11NA
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs21.994.993/25/1112

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