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Economy

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Goldman raises recession odds to 30% on higher inflation, lower GDP outlook as oil prices surge

Goldman said it expected six weeks of Hormuz disruption, with Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80.

By Nick LichtenbergMarch 25, 2026
shinkarovsky
The job market is so bad that ‘reverse recruiters’ are charging $1,500 a month just to help people look for jobs
By Jake AngeloMarch 25, 2026
Why QVC is making such a big bet on TikTok
By Phil WahbaMarch 25, 2026
trump
Iran, the $39 trillion national debt and dedollarization: How Trump exposed America’s Achilles Heel in Hormuz
By Nick LichtenbergMarch 24, 2026
A man in a green ERO vest walks through an airport terminal.
ICE agents can make twice the salary of TSA employees—and economists warn their pay is more ‘shutdown proof’ than other government jobs
By Sasha RogelbergMarch 24, 2026
Latest Stories
NewslettersThe growing problem of ‘tech addiction’ spawns a new detox economy
By Allie GarfinkleMarch 25, 2026
America’s largest Medicaid insurer is making a move into building affordable housing, Centene CEO Sarah London announced at Fortune's Brainstorm Health conference in Dana Point, Calif., on Monday, May 20, 2024.
NewslettersThe youngest-ever female Fortune 500 CEO is reinventing the largest Medicaid insurer amid funding cuts and rising costs
By Diane BradyMarch 25, 2026
Personal FinanceToday’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on March 25, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganMarch 25, 2026
Personal FinanceTop CD rates today, March 25, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.20%
By Glen Luke FlanaganMarch 25, 2026
NewslettersAI plot twist: Why did OpenAI kill its Sora video star?
By Alexei OreskovicMarch 25, 2026
retirement
CommentaryOur retirement system gets a C-plus; policymakers have an opportunity to make it A grade
By Chris MahoneyMarch 25, 2026
America’s Most Innovative Companies
By FortuneMarch 25, 2026
david-f
CommentaryEurope has survived 3 energy shocks in 4 years. The only way out is to stop buying power from its enemies
By David FrykmanMarch 25, 2026
More EconomyPage 4 of 100
Brooke Rollins stands in front of a line of men wearing black cowboy hats.
EnergyMeet a third-generation Tennessee farmer paying an extra $100k for fertilizer because of the Iran War
By Jack Dura and The Associated PressMarch 18, 2026
Female sculptor using a digital tablet in her art studio
EconomyGoldman Sachs says small businesses are embracing AI, but fewer than 1 in 5 are good at actually integrating it
By Tristan BoveMarch 18, 2026
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 10: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell listens as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen presides over a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the Treasury Department on May 10, 2024 in Washington, DC. The council received an update from the Financial Market Utilities Committee and an update on market developments related to corporate credit, as well as a presentation and to vote on a report on nonbank mortgage servicing. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
EconomyThe Fed holds rates steady and punts on the Middle East: ‘uncertain’
By Eva RoytburgMarch 18, 2026
train tunnel construction
PoliticsNew York is suing the Trump Administration again—This time over $58 million in withheld subway funding
By The Associated PressMarch 18, 2026
oil
EconomyStocks sink as market digests $110-per-barrel oil
By Stan Choe and The Associated PressMarch 18, 2026
Chris Wright, US energy secretary sitting next to US President Donald Trump
EnergyTrump officials say gas prices will return to normal in ‘a few more weeks,’ but his own Energy Department says it will be 2027
By Tristan BoveMarch 18, 2026
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 18, 2026 in New York City.
EnergyOil prices hit nearly $110 as Iran vows to escalate the war in ‘new ways’
By Eva RoytburgMarch 18, 2026
freeze
Commentary66% of CEOs are freezing hiring while betting billions on AI. It’s a costly miscalculation
By Katica RoyMarch 18, 2026
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink
SuccessBlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns AI is creating a ‘crisis’ for Gen Z workers: the class of 2026 could face the highest unemployment in years—even without a recession
By Preston ForeMarch 18, 2026
A sign displays the price of diesel fuel, which is at $5.99 at a Maverick gas station
Energy‘I just want all of it to end’: U.S. gas prices reach highest level since 2023 with no end for the Iran War in sight
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressMarch 18, 2026
A technician in Germany works on a battery system for a Volkswagen electric vehicle.
EconomyThe world’s EVs were already replacing 70% of Iran’s oil exports. The war just made that matter
By Tristan BoveMarch 18, 2026
SuccessSri Lanka has just launched a 4-day week because of the Iran war—now, the nation is giving workers Wednesdays off in a desperate bid to conserve fuel
By Orianna Rosa RoyleMarch 18, 2026
Customer Jann Gregg of Schenectady pumps gas at the GasWay Xpress Mart at 1120 Erie Blvd. pump gas on Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025, in Schenectady, N.Y.
EconomyEconomists are ‘loath’ to call a recession, but the odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist
By Eleanor PringleMarch 18, 2026
PHOTO: DONALD TRUMP
Big TechAs Trump rages against his allies, Republicans are asking what the plan is to end the chaos in Iran
By Jim EdwardsMarch 18, 2026
trump
Personal Finance$39 trillion national debt is ‘an embarrassing milestone,’ think tank says. ‘Clearly headed in the wrong direction’
By Nick LichtenbergMarch 18, 2026
EconomyMcDonald’s newest $3 value menu is sounding an alarm about America’s K-shaped economy
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMarch 17, 2026
wilson
InvestingStocks haven’t hit bottom yet, says the analyst who called a ‘rolling recession’ when everyone else saw a boom
By Nick LichtenbergMarch 17, 2026
broker
EconomyScott Galloway wants the stock market to crash. Gen Z is already betting like it will
By Nick LichtenbergMarch 17, 2026
Three men standing in front of a white background.
Economy‘100% completely unsustainable as a society.’ Billionaire advisor calls out widening inequality that leaves America’s poorest 80% ‘falling behind’
By Tristan BoveMarch 17, 2026
Bill Gurley sits onstage with his arms resting on his knees.
InvestingBenchmark’s Bill Gurley: the AI bubble is about to burst—and a reset is coming
By Sasha RogelbergMarch 17, 2026
Elon Musk stares
Economy‘This is the way’: Elon Musk endorses Warren Buffett’s famed 5-minute plan to fix the national debt
By Jacqueline MunisMarch 17, 2026
Young sad college graduates
SuccessServiceNow CEO says that new college graduate unemployment could reach 30% thanks to AI automation
By Emma BurleighMarch 17, 2026
Jeremy Siegel, the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School, speaks during the Wharton Global Alumni Forum in Madrid, Spain, on Thursday, June 24, 2010.
EconomyA market correction of 10% could be on the cards as consumer psychology shifts due to gas prices, says top economist
By Eleanor PringleMarch 17, 2026
Photo: President Trump.
EconomyBackchannel talks between U.S. and Iran offer Trump an off-ramp—if he wants it
By Jim EdwardsMarch 17, 2026
trump
CommentaryAmerica’s $38 trillion debt crisis is already here. The reckoning comes next
By David K. YoungMarch 17, 2026
josh macey
CommentaryYour electricity bill keeps rising. Here’s what’s actually causing it—and how to fix it
By Josh MaceyMarch 17, 2026
Photo: Taoiseach Micheal Martin
EconomyIreland courts U.S. companies as taoiseach brings deals to Trump on St. Patrick’s Day
By Diane BradyMarch 17, 2026
Photo of a sign reading Billionaire Tax Now
PoliticsOnly 6 billionaires left California over its proposed wealth tax—but they took $27 billion in potential revenue with them 
By Jacqueline MunisMarch 17, 2026
Smoke rises from the direction of an energy installation in the Gulf emirate of Fujairah on March 14, 2026. Smoke could be seen rising from the direction of a major UAE energy installation on March 14, in what appeared to be the latest strike targeting the Gulf's petroleum facilities hours after the US struck Iran's Kharg Island.
EnergyVenezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but it can’t solve for the Strait of Hormuz ‘math problem’
By Jordan BlumMarch 17, 2026
Stock market numbers are displayed as traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
InvestingS&P 500 will return just 3% a year for the next decade, top strategist warns
By Shawn TullyMarch 17, 2026
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Magazine
The youngest-ever female CEO of a Fortune 500 company is fighting Trump's cuts to keep Medicaid strongAn image of a popular article
By Fortune EditorsMarch 24, 2026
Commentary
The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed itAn image of a popular article
By Fortune EditorsMarch 23, 2026
Economy
It took 200 years for national debt to hit $1 trillion. Annual interest alone now exceeds that—a 'crushing legacy we must reverse,' says budget chairAn image of a popular article
By Fortune EditorsMarch 23, 2026
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