The Russian population is shrinking at an alarming rate, which could change the fabric of its society.
The country recorded its lowest birth rate in the past 25 years for the first six months of 2024, according to official data published in September. Births in Russia also declined for the first time in June to below 100,000.
During the first half of this year, 599,600 children were born in Russia—16,000 lower than the same time a year ago.
“This is catastrophic for the future of the nation,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in July, according to AFP. “It [the birth rate] is now at a terribly low level—1.4 [births per woman]. This is comparable to European countries, Japan, and so on.”
Russia has been tending toward a demographic crisis for several years now. The Kremlin has tried to intervene to boost birth rates by offering tax breaks and expanding childcare for low-income families.
But a lot has changed since. Russia has now been at war with Ukraine for two and a half years, causing mortality in the country to spike and exacerbating its population crisis. The invasion has also prompted a mass exodus, especially among young men.
The Eastern European country has seen similar troughs in its population over the past century. During World War II, Russia’s male-to-female population ratio became so skewed as millions lost their lives on the front lines that it went on to impact its birth rate several years after.
The country struggled with a shrinking number of births as recently as the 1990s, just after the Soviet Union collapsed. Plummeting fertility rates, a crippled health care system, and economic conditions such as rising employment among women were among the factors that impacted births.
Russia has shown no signs of retreating or ending the Ukraine war, which could mean more trouble for its population. The Atlantic Council foresees this demographic crisis lasting through the 21st century and resulting in a dwarfed pool of ethnic Russians. As more young people get conscripted into the army, it could change how the labor market looks in the next decade and alter the course of the Russian economy.
The country is struggling with the twin crises of a shortfall in the overall population and a funding deficit. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been trying to lure foreign nationals to join the army in exchange for citizenship. Earlier this year, the country significantly hiked divorce fees to fund its war efforts.
Putin has repeatedly called for an increase in Russia’s population. Four years ago, the president said it was the Russians’ “historic duty” to respond to the crisis. He repeated these calls in his 2024 address.
“Unless Russia’s leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa,” Harley Balzer, a government and international affairs expert focused on Eastern Europe and Russia, wrote in a paper for the Atlantic Council last month.
Russia isn’t the only country dogged by demographic challenges. Japan, Italy, and Hungary are in a similar boat, albeit with varying severity. Population challenges are tricky to fight, as they’re the culmination of long-drawn economic and social trends.
The United Nations expects the world population to peak at 10.9 billion by 2100. Countries like Russia will have much more work to do to get to that point without tumbling into a crisis.
A version of this story originally published on Fortune.com on September 10, 2024.
