The world’s biggest brewers are hoping warmer weather and major sports events this summer will help them recover from a “brutal” 2023 — but spirit makers could still face challenges for months to come.
Heineken NV, Carlsberg AS and Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch InBev NV are among the beer companies that will benefit if good weather coincides with the Euro 2024 football tournament in June and July, analysts predict.
European football championships help drive beer sales in Europe, especially in bigger countries like the UK, France, Spain, Italy and Germany, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Duncan Fox. If these countries progress to the latter stages of the tournament as expected, brewers are likely to see a surge in volumes. Betting odds show these countries as favorites, with England leading the pack. Germany, the UK and Spain are among the top 10 beer consumers worldwide, according to Statista.
“If you get the sort of Goldilocks scenario of a beautiful summer, England playing Italy in the finals, or England versus France, that will of course be pretty helpful to the industry,” said Barclays analyst Laurence Whyatt.
Brewers including Carlsberg expect better weather to boost sales this summer after a washout last year that saw people avoid going to the pub and ultimately drink less beer. Heineken Chief Executive Officer Dolf van den Brink called last summer “brutal” because of the amount of rain across Europe in July and August that kept people indoors. They could be in for a better 2024, which Britain’s Met Office forecasts will be warmer than last year.
Bar groups expect the taps to flow in the summer when sales are usually better, according to JD Wetherspoon Plc Chairman Tim Martin.
He has “high hopes for an Irish summer,” with strong sales of Guinness, which “normally associated with older, male drinkers has become highly fashionable among younger drinkers,” Martin said via text message. Major football tournaments provide less of a boost to the chain than rival operators because JD Wetherspoon only shows the big games and is less centered around sports.
For makers of cognac, vodka and aperitifs, however, the outlook isn’t as rosy. European spirit manufacturers have struggled to retain their pandemic-era performance in the US, where stimulus checks and stay-at-home restrictions contributed to a boom in consumer spending, Whyatt told Bloomberg News. They’re also more exposed to the US than European brewers.
“There was an expectation that people’s habits would form to some degree, that if you’ve learned to make cocktails at home, you may well continue doing that after lockdown,” he said. “But what we’ve seen in the data over the last year is that all of the growth during the pandemic has really been lost.”
Trying to sell high-end brands to US consumers was a difficult task in 2023 as the economic malaise deepened, and it may remain so in 2024. Beer, on the other hand, benefits from its perceived status as an “everyday purchase” that appeals to cash-strapped consumers, according to BI’s Duncan Fox.
Spirit makers are also still trying to reduce inventory after retailers and wholesalers stocked up during the pandemic. Beer did not suffer the same fate as it has a much shorter shelf-life, Morgan Stanley analyst Sarah Simon said in an interview.
Still, cocktails aren’t completely out of favor. For instance, UK grocer J Sainsbury Plc said it is expecting rum and tequila-based drinks to grow in popularity, and also anticipates people will start drinking different types of Spritzes beyond the popular Aperol version. And while beer is tipped to fare well this summer, it too is vulnerable to inflation and downtrading. Brewers have been forced to raise prices to keep revenue growing as consumers cut back on the amount they drink.
Challenges are also mounting for spirit makers in China. A robust Lunar New Year may have provided a boost, but weak consumer confidence, a declining youth population that increasingly eschews nightclubs, and the threat of tariffs on the cognac industry may continue to hinder Remy Cointreau SA, which makes Remy Martin cognac, and Martell maker Pernod Ricard SA, Whyatt said.
“There’s reason to be a bit more optimistic about the US consumer,” he said. “I’m much more pessimistic about the Chinese market, because a lot of those concerns do appear quite structural.”
