The Israel-Hamas conflict has revived memories of the Yom Kippur War that sparked the 1973 oil crisis. Deutsche Bank’s strategists even warned this week that the odds of 1970s-style stagflation—a toxic combination of low growth and high inflation—are increasing around the world amid the escalating war in the Middle East.
But Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, told CNBC Tuesday that he doesn’t believe history is repeating itself. “Everybody looks back at the oil crisis of 1973, but this is so different,” the oil guru said.
Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize–winning author of multiple books on the energy markets, argued that the major oil producers in the gulf, including Saudi Arabia, still want a “constructive relationship” with Israel. That means the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is a “geopolitical risk” that could increase the price of oil somewhat in the near term, he said, but it’s not the harbinger of a full-on oil crisis like the lines-around-the-block 1970s.
After surging 4.2% to $88.15 per barrel Monday in response to the war in Israel, international benchmark Brent crude prices fell 0.74% to $87.50 by Tuesday afternoon.
Some 50 years ago, Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria fought over territory in the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights, which were occupied by Israel in 1967. The U.S.’s decision to back Israel in the conflict ultimately led to an oil embargo and production cuts from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), which caused the price of oil to surge 300% in a matter of months.
But Yergin doesn’t believe oil prices will spike so dramatically this time, largely because the supply-and-demand dynamics in the crude market are far different now. He noted that U.S. crude production has continued to surge in 2023, even with a declining oil rig count. The Energy Information Administration’s latest data shows that U.S. crude oil production rose nearly 10% from a year ago in July to 12.9 million barrels per day.
“Basically, non-OPEC+ oil, the growth in that this year, is greater than the growth in [oil] demand,” Yergin explained, arguing that current demand for oil won’t be able to support higher prices, barring a much more major conflict in the Middle East.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, an Australian investment bank with over $550 billion in assets under management, echoed Yergin’s comments in an interview with Fortune Tuesday, saying that he doesn’t expect a repeat of the 1970s.
“At this point, as long as it doesn’t broaden out beyond the more local conflict, I have a hard time seeing this having a significant impact on our [global economic growth] outlook,” he said, arguing there will only be a mild impact “at the margin” on inflation from rising oil prices for now.
“I think in order for there to be a more significant impact, you would need to see the conflict escalate into a more regional conflict and then you could see more significant ramifications flowing from that,” he added.
The big risk
A repeat of the 1973 oil crisis clearly isn’t currently under way, but that outcome still isn’t out of the realm of possibilities if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates. “The big question is, will it involve Iran?” S&P Global’s Yergin told CNBC Tuesday.
The oil guru fears that if Iran gets involved in the conflict in Israel, the U.S. might increase its sanctions against the nation. Iran produces only around 4% of the world’s oil supply, but the country has been increasing its crude exports at a time when OPEC+ has cut its output. Iran produced 3.15 million barrels of oil per day in August, the most since 2018, Reuters reported.
As a result: “An escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, hence the U.S., could have severe consequences for global oil production,” Ipek Ozkardeskyay, a senior analyst at the online bank Swissquote, said Tuesday.
And while crude supply out of Iran could be affected if tensions in the Middle East escalate, the real threat to the global energy markets may be attacks on U.S. or other Western oil tankers.
“Obviously, if Iran is involved, that raises the stakes. The question then is, does the U.S. tighten sanctions on Iranian oil and does Iran respond by seizing tankers? But we’re not there yet,” Yergin concluded.
