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Employees say:"The company's strong commitment to building not just homes, but thriving communities, is unique. There's a deep sense of purpose in knowing that our work has a lasting impact on families and neighborhoods. The culture here supports innovation, collaboration, and continuous learning, especially in cross-functional roles like mine, where land development, HOA management, and resident experience intersect. Leaders truly empower employees to lead with integrity and heart, which makes it both fulfilling and inspiring to be part of the team."

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F500-2021-452-Taylor Morrison Home

Taylor Morrison builds mid-to-upscale, first-time, and mid-market homes in 10 U.S. states. It makes its Fortune 500 debut this year.

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Founded in 1936, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is a land developer and homebuilder that designs, builds, and sells single-family and multifamily detached and attached homes. It also develops various types of planned communities. Under the Urban Form brand name, it develops and constructs multiuse properties that include commercial space, as well as multifamily properties. Under the Yardly brand, it operates a build-to-rent homebuilding business. Other brands it holds include Darling Homes Collection by Taylor Morrison and Esplanade.

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Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Taylor Morrison Home

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Ladies and gentlemen, the Taylor Morrison Q2 twenty twenty five Earnings Webcast and Conference Call will begin shortly with your host, Mackenzie Aron. We appreciate your patience and ask to prepare your session today. During the call, we encourage participants to raise any questions they may have. We will begin shortly. Good morning, and welcome to Taylor Morrison's Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call.

Currently, all participants are in listen only mode. Later, we will conduct question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I'd now like to introduce our host, Mackenzie Aron. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Before we begin, let me remind you that this call, including the question and answer session, will include forward looking statements. These statements are subject to the Safe Harbor statement for forward looking information that you can review in our earnings release on the Investor Relations portion of our website at taylormorrison.com. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections.

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the SEC, and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward looking statements. In addition, we will refer to certain non GAAP financial measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in the release. Now I will turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Cheryl Palmer.

Thank you, Mackenzie, and good morning, everyone. Joining me is Kurt Van Hefty, our Chief Financial Officer and Eric Huzer, our Chief Corporate Operations Officer. I am pleased to share our second quarter results, which met or exceeded our guidance on substantially all key metrics despite the unique environment. We delivered 3,340 homes at an average price of 589,000. This produced 2,000,000,000 of home closings revenue with an adjusted home closings gross margin of twenty three percent and ninety basis points of SG and A expense leverage.

Our performance reflects our diversified product portfolio that serves a broad and well qualified consumer set with to be built and spec offerings concentrated in core locations. Especially in volatile markets, this balanced strategy is a valuable differentiator that we believe contributes to greater financial resiliency. As I shared on our last call, the start of the spring selling season had been muted as consumers digested stock market volatility, tariff uncertainty, immigration reform, and high interest rates. As the season progressed, sales trends remained softer than normal with some choppiness throughout the quarter. This drove moderation in our monthly net absorption pace to 2.6 per community.

Although this was consistent with our historic second quarter average, it was lower than our expectations in normal market conditions due to increased competitive pressures, especially in first and first move up locations as well as a pickup in cancellations. In this environment, our overall bias between pace and price leans more heavily towards price and ultimately margin and returns given the value of our attractive land positions, desirable communities, and discerning customers, especially in our amenity rich move up and resort lifestyle neighborhoods. We continue to believe that our emphasis on working with each customer hand in hand with our Taylor Morrison home funding team to personalize incentives is the most effective way to create value for both our buyers and our company. This process allows us to educate and inform our customers through prequalification and tailor programs that provide stability and strengthen their financial goals and needs during homeownership. We pride ourselves that our mortgage programs are aligned to serve the consumers that most need the support.

As an example of just one of our programs that has proven successful in driving traffic and assisting a small subset of customers with their financial goals has been a recently introduced 3.75% conventional seven year adjustable rate mortgage with no discount fees. To put the power of such an offer in perspective, this promotional interest rate would increase our typical customer's purchasing power by about a $138,000 on a $500,000 home financed with a 20% down payment as compared to financing and market interest rates. The point being assuring that we have a wide range of programs and products to meet each customer's needs continues to be key to our success. Affordability continues to be top of mind for our first time buyers, while quality of community and choice remain critical for our other consumer segments as Eric will detail in just a moment. We are by no means immune from the headwinds facing our industry.

However, we believe our strategy of serving well qualified homebuyers across the consumer spectrum with a well balanced portfolio of to be built and spec homes, primarily in attractive core submarkets where fundamentals tend to be healthier throughout housing cycles, provides important benefits, including a more stable gross margin profile. In contrast to significant industry gross margin compression, our adjusted home closings gross margin has been relatively range bound between 23% and nearly 25% for the last two and a half years. This is much stronger than our historical average due to the improvement in our scale and operating capabilities. And most importantly, as we look ahead, our gross margin is expected to remain within the bounds of our long term target in the low to mid twenty percent range despite the outsized incentive offers and overall pricing pressure we are competing against, especially on spec sales. The prevalence and depth of these incentives has shifted consumer preferences even among traditionally to be built customers towards spec homes as some are willing to trade personalization for the deeper incentives currently available for spec inventory across the industry.

As a result, our share of spec sales increased in the second quarter to a new high of 71%, including a higher than typical 50% in our Esplanade segment. With specs carrying gross margins below that of to be built homes, we expect that this temporary mix shift will impact our home closings gross margin in the third and fourth quarter as our margin is expected to moderate sequentially to approximately 22%. However, for the year, our adjusted home closings gross margin is still expected to be approximately 23%. And longer term, we expect our business to remain more equally balanced between to be built and spec home offerings. By consumer group, our second quarter orders consisted of 33 level, 50% move up and 17% resort lifestyle.

As a reminder, in the first quarter, our overall resort lifestyle segment was the only to post year over year net order growth during its peak selling season, while our move up sales were roughly stable and the entry level was down most deeply. In the second quarter, we saw more consistent sales activity across the consumer spectrum with our resort lifestyle and entry level segments both down in the high teen range, while our move up sales were down in the mid single digits driven by a shared lack of urgency due to less confidence. With our broader resort lifestyle portfolio, our Esplanade communities, which account for about 10% of our total, have held up with greater resiliency as we would expect given its affluent customer base. In the second quarter, Esplanade's net sales orders declined just 8% versus 12% in total for the company and its home closings gross margin was slightly improved year over year in the high 20% range. This strong margin is driven in part by outsized combined average lot and option premiums of nearly $270,000 three times that of the rest of our business.

During the quarter, we broke ground on our newest Esplanade in Summerlin outside of Las Vegas, which already has a robust interest list even before we have initiated our first campaign for the community. We remain committed to a robust expansion of this unique brand in the years ahead. Taking a step back from our current sales environment, we believe the need for affordable, desirable new construction remains intact across our markets of operations given the aging of the population, migration patterns, and evolving buyer preferences. We believe that our diverse portfolio is well positioned to serve this need in the years ahead. While the near term outlook calls for a more patient growth trajectory as we prioritize capital efficiency and returns over volume in today's intensely competitive marketplace, we strongly believe we have the platform and opportunity to jump start growth as market dynamics stabilize.

In the meantime, with a healthy land pipeline already controlled and healthy balance sheet, we have flexibility to return capital to shareholders on top of the roughly $2,000,000,000 we have invested in share repurchases since 02/2015. As you would expect, our teams are highly focused on controlling costs and working with our trades to further increase production and purchasing efficiencies, which has driven year over year improvement in our stick and brick costs. Additionally, our one of a kind digital sales environment is another source of meaningful cost savings that continues to gain traction and support our healthy SG and A structure. Across the business, our operating priorities are grounded in a disciplined model that we expect can generate mid to high teen returns on equity throughout the course of the cycle, including this year. With that, let me now turn the call over to Eric.

Thanks, Cheryl, and good morning. At quarter end, we owned or controlled 85,051 homebuilding lots. Based on trailing twelve month closings, this represented six point four years of supply, of which two point six years was owned. We control 60% of our lot supply via options and off balance sheet structures, up from 57% a year ago. We continue to make steady progress towards our goal of controlling at least 65% of lots.

During the quarter, we invested $612,000,000 in homebuilding land, 43% of which went towards lot development. For the full year, we continue to anticipate our total homebuilding land investment to be around $2,400,000,000 with a downside bias given our heightened diligence in these market conditions. As always, our ultimate cash investment will be dependent on our use of financing tools and market opportunities as the land market has recently exhibited some softness. As a reminder, all previously approved transactions as well as future phases of development are re reviewed by our investment committee for final alignment or any necessary adjustments before closing. We remain committed to executing as a community developer as the vast majority of our prospective customers tell us that they value the community at least as much as the home we provide.

While time lines associated with entitlements remain the most notable development challenge, tariffs have not had a meaningful impact to our horizontal costs, and in fact, these costs have moderated and access to trades has eased. We continue to keep a careful eye on competitive and supply measures across our portfolio. Our research suggests that our spec count by community is less than the new home averages in the majority of our markets, which we believe is a function of our core location focus. With regards to resale inventory, there has been some moderation in months of supply across many of our Florida and Texas markets, and the average months of supply for our overall market footprint was lower than the national average. To focus upon our consumers for a moment, we've engaged them in attempts to more deeply understand their sentiment.

Among our shoppers hesitating, our surveys indicate that their primary concern is the overall environment and less so their own personal financial situations. When market conditions stabilize, we believe this suggests that shoppers will be willing and able to move forward with their desired home purchase. We are pleased that despite a more challenging demand environment, our customer satisfaction scores have increased as we engage with both our shoppers and buyers, validating our efforts of creating a differentiated customer experience. Lastly, I wanted to provide a brief update on our ForRent Yardley business. With long term confidence in positioning this operation to provide an efficient model targeted to address housing availability and affordability challenges by leveraging our core competencies in land and construction, we continue to navigate the interest rate environment in evaluating optimal project disposition strategies.

At this time, we now expect to exit as many as four communities this year. As detailed in this morning's press release, we have executed a flexible finance facility that will enhance cash generation, balance sheet relief and greater optionality as we seek to optimize returns over time in targeting asset exits. The magnitude of this facility is material, covering total project costs of $3,000,000,000 serving both existing and new acquisitions. Kennedy Lewis, with whom we have significant land banking experience, will be the capital provider, and we are jointly committed to our unique platform in producing efficient communities that will assist customers who simply cannot afford a new home today, but who desire a single family living experience. With that, I will turn the call to Kurt.

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. For the second quarter, reported net income was $194,000,000 or 1.92 per diluted share, up from $1.86 a year ago. After excluding inventory impairment and certain warranty charges, our adjusted net income was $2.00 $4,000,000 or $2.2 per diluted share, up from $1.97 a year ago. Our closings volume increased 4% year over year to 3,340 homes, slightly ahead of our prior guidance of approximately 3,200 due to a higher number of specs that were sold and closed during the quarter. The share of closings from specs increased to 65% in the second quarter from 58% in the prior quarter and 59% a year ago.

This higher spec penetration contributed to a 2% decline in the average closing price to $589,000 This was slightly ahead of our prior guidance of $585,000 As a result, home closings revenue increased 2% to approximately $2,000,000,000 With 8,192 homes under production at quarter end including 3,888 specs of which eight forty two are finished, our inventory remains slightly elevated compared to targeted levels. Therefore, we expect our spec closings penetration to remain higher than normal through year end as we prioritize the sale of these homes and meet recent customer preferences for quick move in homes. We also expect to slow our starts volume following a monthly starts pace of 3.4 per community or 3,500 homes in the second quarter, which allowed us to put the universe of homes in the ground for a full year delivery target. For the remainder of the year, the expected slowdown in new starts will be community specific as we look to optimize our working capital and manage our inventory. Also in support of reduced starts volume, we continue to see improvement in cycle times throughout the build process.

We realized more than two weeks of sequential savings in the second quarter, driven by both to be built and spec home production. We believe that this ongoing improvement strengthens our ability to flex our growth potential as market conditions evolve. For the full year, we still expect to deliver between 13,000 to 13,500 homes, including between 3,200 to 3,300 homes in the third quarter. Based on the anticipated mix of deliveries, we now expect the average closing price to be in the range of $595,000 to $600,000 for the full year, including approximately $600,000 in the third quarter. In the second quarter, home closings gross margin was 22.3%.

Adjusted home closings gross margin, which excludes inventory impairment and certain warranty charges was 23% in line with our prior guidance. As we look into the remainder of the year, we expect incentives to increase and our spec penetration to remain higher than typical as we continue to normalize our inventory position. As a result, we expect our third quarter home closings gross margin to be approximately 22%. Excluding the inventory impairment and warranty charges realized in the first six months of the year, we expect our full year adjusted home closings gross margin to be approximately 23%. Including the charges and assuming no additional charges through the remainder of the year, we expect our GAAP full year home closings gross margin to be approximately 22.5%.

Now to sales. We generated 2,733 net orders, down 12% year over year as our monthly absorption pace moderated to 2.6 net orders per community from three a year ago. At quarter end, we had three forty five communities consistent with our prior guidance. Based on our updated sales expectations and timing of community openings and closings, we now expect our ending outlet count to be between three forty to three forty five in the third quarter and approximately three fifty by the end of the year. Our cancellation rate was 14.6% of gross orders, up from 9.4% a year ago.

As a percentage of our beginning backlog, cancellations were 9.2%, up from 5.2 a year ago. While this increase reflects the change in consumer confidence of late, we believe this remains below industry averages reflecting our strong customer profile, prequalification processes, and backlog customer deposits of approximately $47,000 per home. SG and A expense as a percentage of home closings revenue was 9.3%. This represented 90 basis points of year over year expense leverage due primarily to lower payroll related costs and commission expense. For the year, we continue to expect our SG and A ratio to improve to the mid 9% range due to proactive management of our overhead costs, ongoing back office consolidation efforts and growing efficiencies from our digital sales tools.

Financial Services revenue was $53,000,000 with a gross margin of 51.1%, up from $49,000,000 and 42.5% respectively a year ago. Helping to manage our incentives effectively, our financial services team achieved a strong capture rate of 87% during the quarter. Among buyers using Taylor Morrison home funding, credit metrics were healthy and consistent with recent trends with an average credit score of 751, down payment of 22% and household income of $188,000 Turning now to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with liquidity of approximately $1,100,000,000 This included $130,000,000 of unrestricted cash and nine fifty two million dollars of available capacity on our revolving credit facility. We continue to have financial flexibility with our net homebuilding debt to capitalization ratio equaling 22.9% at quarter end and no senior note maturities until 2027.

During the quarter, we repurchased 1,700,000 shares of our common stock outstanding for $100,000,000 At quarter end, our remaining repurchase authorization was $675,000,000 For 2025, we are now targeting total share repurchases of at least $350,000,000 Since 2015, we have repurchased a total of approximately $2,000,000,000 of our shares outstanding or roughly 60% helping to drive improved earnings and returns for our shareholders. Going forward, we remain committed to both programmatic and opportunistic repurchase strategies to manage our capital and take advantage of the attractive valuation opportunity in our equity. Inclusive of this year's repurchase target, we expect our diluted shares outstanding to average approximately $101,000,000 in the full year including $100,000,000 in the third quarter. Now I will turn the call back over to Cheryl.

Thank you, Kurt. In closing, I would like to highlight that we released our annual sustainability and belonging report earlier this week on Monday. This year, the report is built around the theme of resiliency, a term we believe captures not only our financial performance in the face of challenging market dynamics, but also the performance of our homes as well as the long term desirability and livability of our carefully planned well located communities. This intentional effort to build resiliency into every facet of our operations is core to who we are as a builder and community developer as you can read more about in this week's publication. To end, let me express a tremendous thank you to the Taylor Morrison team.

I am continually impressed by our team members' execution and enthusiasm to be the best we can be. Thank you to each of you for all you do and all you will do to make the second half of the year a success. Now let's open the call to your questions. Operator, please provide our participants with instructions.

Thank you. We'd now like to open the lines for Q Our first question comes from Matthew Bouley from Barclays. Matthew, your line is now open.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. Guess I'll start with a question on the spec mix in the quarter. So that 71% of sales, think you said. I guess my question is that kind of like a market driven, I don't know, softness on the to be built side, kind of increasing that spec mix therefore, sort of your own decisions around price over pace with the to be built side?

I mean, it seemed like the spec production at the end of the quarter was not too different versus Q1. So I guess just trying to understand the reasoning behind that jump in spec and then obviously going forward, should we expect it to kind of stay at these levels? It sounded like that's what was expected in the second half, but just any more detail on that. Thank you.

Yeah. Hi, Mike. Thanks and great question. Matt. Sorry, Matt.

Yeah. Relative to the specs, I think last quarter when we talked about what kind of Q2 was going to be, we kind of set that up that we were going to have a higher spec concentration overall coming through the P and L based on kind of some of where the inventory was throughout all of our communities, whether it was entry level and or move up, and as Cheryl alluded to, even from kind of a resort lifestyle. So it's a function of that. And on a go forward basis, we still expect that we're going to continue to have a higher concentration of specs coming through here in the near term kind of as we work our way through the year. But going forward beyond that, we continue to kind of be fans of a more balanced kind of approach relative between the mix between our specs and to be built.

Yeah. And I think, Matt, Kurt's exactly right. The only thing I'd add to it is it's and you nailed it, in your question. It absolutely is a function of what we're hearing from the consumer. You know, Eric can go into more detail, and I think some of his comments articulated that the buyer has really begun the consumer has really begun to understand the value proposition that's available with inventory homes.

Even in some instances where we would generally expect to see a to be built buyer, and some, you know, it's not one size fits all. Some to be built absolutely know what they want and are willing to pay for it a little differently. But the consumer understands the incentive environment that's sitting with inventory, and they're prioritizing that in their in their decision process. So we wanna make sure we have the inventory in the market to address it.

And maybe just to triple down really quick, Matt, we do ask our consumers. We've been asking them for years, you know, what percentage of you of shoppers need a spec, have an interest in spec or would be open to a spec? And it's been really interesting to see over the last couple of quarters to see that elevate. I think to Cheryl's point, to some degree, it's because of looking for that deal and the economics. But we've we've tended to try gravitating our spec count to the demand from our shoppers.

Yeah. And the only real difference for us is we are seeing a stronger pickup in what I would say that move up or even the resort lifestyle buyer, which, generally that was a smaller piece of that business.

Okay. Got it. Yeah. No. Great great color.

Helpful. Yeah. So a lot of it seems like consumer driven, and you guys making sure you have the right product on the ground for that for where that demand is. Okay, super helpful. So then I guess secondly, just jumping down to the gross margin side, just to double click on that.

I mean, sounded like the spec mix was behind the Q3 gross margin guide. I just wanted to check if we're talking '23 adjusted for the full year, is the implication that the fourth quarter is actually expected to be higher than the third quarter within that or roughly flat? Just any kind of detail on the kind of cadence there in the second half. Thank you.

Yes, Matt, another great question. As we kind of look at it, we've guided Q3 that we're expecting 22% for Q3 based on the higher spec penetration. For the full year, when we kind of think about what adjusted margin is for the full year at roughly 23%, I think you can probably do the math on there and I think it's going to be pretty close to around 22% for Q4. We're not guiding to that right now. But I think just based on how the math falls out, it'll be approximately 22%, roughly speaking, in q four.

And probably you agree, Kurt. The only thing that will move that one way or the other, generally speaking, obviously, you have a mix impact, but it's really gonna come down to what happens to rates and the incentive load based on, the forward commitment, the, you know, the the programs that we have available for the consumers in the mortgage market.

Understood. Perfect. Well, thanks everyone and good luck.

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan. Michael, your line is now open.

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I want to delve a little bit into the announcement with Kennedy Lewis regarding the $3,000,000,000 facility.

The press release cited greater some balance sheet relief and greater optionality, specifically, I guess, terms of disposition of assets. So I'm kind of curious in terms of, you know, if this would if this agreement is going to result in some movement of assets off of your balance sheet into the facility, I suppose? Or and and if you could just go into a little more detail in terms of, you know, the you know, what you mean by greater optionality, and if there's, you know, you know, an improvement in, perhaps cost of financing for the projects.

Yes. Mike, I'll start with that. And good question. Appreciate it. We're really excited about it.

As we've mentioned too in the press release, we've done some business with Conway Lewis before. We understand how each other think. And I think this works for both of us. And so to answer one of your questions relative to current assets versus prospective assets, the facility is intended to serve both. And so we do own about 35 assets, and a fair number of those are contemplated to move over in the facility in the coming couple of quarters.

And then, of course, as we think about new deals, the intention is for those to go into that facility as well. For all intents and purposes, from a functional standpoint, it's akin to a land bank, and that we jointly underwrite deals. Kennedy Lewis would be assigned the contract. They would purchase it, and we would pay for a kind of an interest rate along the way. The interesting thing on this one is that it will serve all the way through stabilization of the asset, so through vertical construction.

Lastly, on the optionality piece, I would tell you that our job is to option to basically optimize the value of those assets. And as we think about the competitive arena for each asset in terms of what other assets are available around it as well as cap rates, where we are from a leasing standpoint, lease rate. And so it just provides a little bit more timing in terms of just having the ability to optimize the value of each asset as we think about the environment and the valuation that the market's telling us.

And, Eric, is it fair that on the existing assets, you know, land tends to be the smaller piece of the overall investment. We won't get the even though we'll move, and we won't necessarily get the balance sheet relief, but we'll get all the support on the development side. Right?

Very true. So, yeah, typically, the land burden, as a percentage of this revenue for these assets is a little bit lighter, just sort of Cheryl's point. We do expect the magnitude to be noticeable as we think about conveying those early assets. But some of them, if they're just land, it's not going to be a huge dollar amount day one.

Okay. So in terms of just, you know, the just to clarify, when you talk about moving some of the assets off the balance sheet, that are you talking about maybe like initially, it would be a couple 100,000,000 and so it wouldn't have that much of a demonstrable impact on return on assets or return on equity?

For the overall organization, perhaps not. But like I said, as we alluded to, it's $3,000,000,000 so we do expect it to ramp over time. So really not framing the day one magnitude. But like I said, of those 35 owned assets, 13 of them are with the prior joint venture that we've alluded to. And so the balance, most of the others are intended to transfer over.

Okay. Then just secondly, in terms of, you know, maybe trying to get an early sense of of growth for 2026. You know, you've obviously laid out goals in terms of where you wanna get over the next several years. You had a competitor talk maybe about community count growth. One of your larger competitors at least maybe in the mid to high single digit range for 2026.

Just given the current backdrop, given your own land option and owned pipeline, Is that a reasonable way to think about growth for for Taylor in the upcoming, '26 calendar year? Or, you know, are are there other variables to consider?

Yeah, Mike. Thank you. Obviously, you know, we haven't we're not ready to guide for 2026. But I think as we've implied in our investment day and our last couple calls, you know, we continue to expect growth in each of the out years. Having said that, you know, and I think I said in my comments, you know, we really want to look at the market and make sure that we do the right thing on every single asset.

We certainly have the operational capabilities. We have the team to take what the market gives us. But the way we look at new land spend, as we continue to pry prioritize returns is really gonna be based on the market. You know, as you heard from Eric, we still are guiding to something no more than 2,400,000,000.0 in land spend. But as we sit here today, I think you give us another quarter to understand how the market's responding.

And if we continue to see a reduction in inventory, I think it will be a lot easier in our next call to talk more about '26.

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Trevor Allinson from Wolfe Research. Trevor, your line is now open.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Cheryl, I wanted to follow-up on that last comment. Just thinking about prioritizing price and margin here in the current environment. How should we think about your willingness to slow pace further from here if demand were to remain soft as we enter a seasonally slower tummy?

Or is there a lower bound, on absorption pace, that you would you would not like to dip below if demand were to remain soft?

Yeah. I think there's a lot of factors that go into that, Trevor. Obviously, if I think about, you know, confidence today, sales are all about confidence in with the consumer in today's environment. It's not really about the financial capabilities of our buyers, Eric pointed out, from what we're seeing in our surveys and in the macro data. But we do know the buyers want a deal.

And in some of our assets, that's gonna make a lot of sense where we have inventory and we look at the competitive environment in that local submarket. There are some places where we're gonna move pace, and there will be a cost to do that. Having said that, there are other, assets that, honestly, we will be very patient, and we're not going to, put them on sale. We have a very strong book of assets. And as we move to our active adult and our move up buyers, some of those assets in more core locations become very difficult to replace, and we're not gonna put those on sale.

You know, we've said that, structurally, we think our paces should be somewhere long term in the low threes. Obviously, we saw a little bit of a reduction in our pace in q two. There are a couple of reasons. I look at our active adults specifically, and we had, you know, a couple of astronauts push out because of power issues that would have had our Esplanade business, you know, actually up year over year. So there's you know, you actually have to peel back the onion to really understand it.

When I look at the combination of our closeouts in the third quarter, which tend to sometimes move a little slower, but then I offset those with some of, our openings, that's what gives us confidence in the overall year, gives us confidence in our closing and margin guide.

Okay. Thank you for that, Sheryl. Was very helpful. And then switching over to the cost side, a peer of yours yesterday was talking about potentially seeing some relief on development costs. In your guys' prepared remarks, you all mentioned seeing some softness in the land market.

Can you provide more color there? How widespread is that? Any specific markets you're seeing the most relief? And then when do you expect to potentially see some of that benefit start to come through? Thanks.

Hey, Trevor. Eric here. Yes, I think it's both sides. I think on the acquisition side, that was really what we were alluding to with regard to some softness. And as you think about what that looks like over time, it starts with kind of timing and terms in deals, and then eventually, it works its way into some of the pricing.

And so we have had some success in our underwriting and kind of recalibrating the market and realizing some of that through our acquisition underwriting. We expect that to continue a bit. And really, what we're alluding to is a little bit of a normalization relative to the price inflation that we're seeing in the market. If the long term trend is something like 10%, that's really been cut in half. You're talking low single digits.

On the development side, similarly, I think because development has slowed to some degree across the markets, you're seeing a little bit more access to trades. You're seeing a little bit greater ability to negotiate on those terms. So again, whatever the long term trend might be in terms of inflation, think about half of that on the development side. So that's what we're really seeing.

If you think about everything that's coming through the investment committee, would it be fair to say that, you know, a lot of success in structurally negotiating kind of new assets, maybe even assets that are controlled today. Price, you know, a little harder to get, but we're seeing some success in some some specific positions.

Yeah. Which is kind of the normal the normal train. Right? It starts. As markets Yep.

And and we'll see how long this hesitation in the market lasts. And, if it continues, we'll continue to rereview every single deal coming through. And we'll ask for something, and and in many cases, we'll get it.

Very helpful. Thanks for all the color, good luck moving forward.

Our next question comes from Mike Dahl from RBC. Mike, your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Mike. My first question,

I just wanted to go back to just going back to Trevor's question, maybe trying to put a finer point on things. Can you talk about what you've seen in July so far? And to the point on pace that are moving pieces, but given the back half is normally seasonally lower, yet you're just coming off a quarter that was well below normal seasonal trends? Can you help us understand, like, do you think you'll hold pace flattish in the mid-2s? Should we still expect a further drop off?

Your closings, you can hit with some of the backlog and specs, but just trying to understand that near term pace dynamic and and Angela comments.

Yeah. You know, as the we had a nice finish to June, and June started a little slower. Nice finish. I would say as we rolled into the third quarter, Mike. I mean, the holiday, the way it fell on the calendar, I would tell you the first week of the month was slow.

We have seen a pickup in traffic and website activity and sales activity had a last, you know, last week a nice week. So early results into the quarter, obviously, but it's you know, I think our perspective on managing price and pace on a community by community asset holds, which and with our community openings, I like to think we'll be somewhere in a, you know, similar place. If I look historically, generally, we do see a fall off, from q, you know, '2 to q three. We also expect, you know, early August, you start getting some normalcy back into this the seasonality with kids back in school and normalized activity, but a little early to comment on kind of the macro with August and September.

Okay. Fair enough. And just sticking with the price versus pace dynamic, I mean, it makes sense. I hear what you're saying. Your order ASP was still down quite a bit.

I assume some of that is mix related. But when we think about kind of the the order ASP and how you're managing that pace versus price dynamic, any any color on on whether that side should start to stabilize a little bit because we were down 5% quarter on quarter or 6% year on year? Any help on on that would be good.

I mean, Kurt shared kind of our expectations for price for the balance of the year, but you're absolutely right. It was even though it was a little bit ahead of our guidance, it really was a mix issue and both a geographic mix issue as well as a spec penetration as much as anything. Mike, remember that, you know, we we have made some comments that we've got, you know, inventory more universally across all consumer groups, but the majority of that inventory is always gonna address that first time buyer, and that's just at a lower price point. Even when I look at the active adult penetration, specifically a couple positions in, Florida, Sarasota specifically, we had some strong townhome penetrations which had our lower price than our normal resort lifestyle or esplanade. So not just one thing, but I think all of those contributed to the overall price.

Did I miss oh, and then Indy. You had that's really fair, Kurt. We had a full quarter of Indy, which is primarily Indianapolis, which is primarily a first time buyer market for us so far. And you think about last year, we had, you know, nine weeks in the quarter. This year, we had a full quarter at that penetration.

Good news is when I look at the Indianapolis results, you know, their pace doubled year over year. So good it's it's a good result, but it absolutely is gonna have an impact on the ASP.

Thank you very much. Next question comes from Alan Ratner from Zelman and Associates. Alan, your line is now open.

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks as always for the great detail.

First question on the cancellation rate. I know I don't want to make a mountain out of Molehill here because it's still a pretty healthy overall level. But you did flag it as kind of something that was a bit of a downward surprise in the quarter and up year over year. I was just curious if you can give a little bit more color on these cancellations because I know you guys take a pretty hefty deposit and generally with the build to order business, although it's shrinking, that tends to mitigate some of the cancellations. So at what stage are you seeing these cans?

At what price point market specifics? Maybe any any additional color you can give to understand what's what's driving that would be great.

Yeah. It's a really fair question. We did highlight highlight it, Alan. You know, it's hard to find, a company wide trend. Let me start there.

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