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The energy infrastructure company Sempra was formed by the 1998 merger of Pacific Enterprises, the parent company of Southern California Gas, and Enova, parent of San Diego Gas &amp; Electric. Sempra operates through three business lines: Sempra California provides energy to consumers in Southern and Central California through utilities SDG&amp;E and SoCalGas. Sempra Texas includes Oncor Electric Delivery, an electric transmission and distribution utility. And Sempra Infrastructure develops, builds, and operates energy infrastructure. The company was previously known as Sempra Energy and rebranded to Sempra in 2021.

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Sempra (SRE): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Sempra

sempra

Okay, welcome to Sempra's fourth quarter earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Louise Bick. Please go ahead.

Good morning and welcome to Sempra's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our website under the Events and Presentations section. We have several members of our management team with us today, including Jeff Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Karen Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Justin Bird, Executive Vice President of Sempra and Chief Executive Officer of Sempra Infrastructure, Caroline Winn, Executive Vice President of Sempra, Allen Nye, Chief Executive Officer of Oncor, and other members of our senior management team. Before starting, I'd like to remind everyone that we'll be discussing forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement we make today.

The factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially are discussed in the company's most recent 10-K filed with the SEC. Earnings per common share amounts in the presentation are shown on a diluted basis, and we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for reconciliation to GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2025. I'd also like to mention that forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as of today, February 26th, 2026, and it's important to note that the company does not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements in the future. With that, please turn to slide five and let me hand the call over to Jeff.

Thank you all for joining us today. Our success in 2025 reflects how well we performed against our priorities. In that regard, we introduced five value creation initiatives last year designed to simplify Sempra's business model, mitigate risk, and improve financial strength. The first value creation initiative was to prioritize utility investments with improved returns. During the year, we deployed $13 billion in CapEx, Sempra California increased CPUC-based operating margin, and Oncor improved capital efficiency through the implementation of the Unified Tracker Mechanism. Together, these factors contributed to Sempra achieving record adjusted EPS of $4.69 at the high end of our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range while establishing a strong foundation for continued growth through 2030. We continue to see compelling investment opportunities in Oncor's service territory, with historic levels of transmission expansion continuing to advance.

In order to support this buildout, we're excited to introduce a new record capital plan of $65 billion for 2026-2030, representing a 17% increase to last year's plan. Karen will speak to this later in the call, including details about $9 billion of upside opportunities that we're tracking within the plan period. The second initiative was to highlight value in our LNG franchise. In September, we announced the sale of a 45% stake in SI Partners for $10 billion, implying over a $22 billion equity value. We're pleased to recognize the significant value created on behalf of our shareholders at an attractive multiple, and we continue to expect to close that transaction in the second or third quarter of 2026, subject to closing conditions.

Sempra Infrastructure also made progress during the year on several LNG projects by declaring FID on Port Arthur LNG phase II and reaching mechanical completion at ECA LNG phase I. Port Arthur LNG phase II construction continues to proceed on schedule, and we're excited by the prospect of all these projects driving the growth profile of that business well into the next decade. Our third priority was to simplify the business and reduce portfolio risk, including the sale of non-core assets in Mexico. In December, SI Partners entered into an agreement to sell Ecogas for the equivalent of approximately $500 million in U.S. dollars. We believe the implied 12.7 EBITDA multiple provides further support for the overall value of Sempra Infrastructure's portfolio, and we look forward to completing that sale in the second or third quarter of 2026, subject to closing conditions.

Our fourth initiative was to execute Fit for 2025, which focused on reducing our cost structure to meet our future business needs and included modernizing our workforce to improve organizational efficiency. We have more work to do in this area. It will continue to be a focus in 2026. Lastly, we wanted to elevate community safety and operational excellence across the enterprise, which culminated in California Legislature passing SB-254, which strengthened the long-term stability of the state's wildfire fund and called for further reductions to wildfire risk exposures through the Natural Catastrophe Resiliency Study to be published in April 2026. SDG&E need to be recognized as best in the West in electric customer reliability for the 20th consecutive year. Now, please turn to the next slide, where Karen will walk through our financial results.

Thank you, Jeff. Earlier today, Sempra reported fourth quarter 2025 GAAP earnings of $352 million or $0.54 per share. This compares to fourth quarter 2024 GAAP earnings of $665 million or $1.04 per share. The full year 2025 GAAP earnings were $1,796 million or $2.75 per share. This compares to 2024 GAAP earnings of $2,817 million or $4.42 per share. On an adjusted basis, fourth quarter 2025 earnings were $841 million or $1.28 per share. This compares to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings of $960 million or $1.50 per share. Full year 2025 adjusted earnings were $3,066 million or $4.69 per share. This compares favorably to our previous full year 2024 adjusted earnings of $2,969 million or $4.65 per share. We're pleased with our execution as adjusted EPS for the year came in at the high end of our previously announced 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range.

Please turn to the next slide. Variances in the full year 2025 adjusted earnings compared to the same period last year can be summarized as follows. At Sempra Texas, we had $80 million of higher equity earnings from the UTM, higher invested capital and customer growth, partially offset by higher interest expense, depreciation, and O&M. Turning to Sempra California, we had $213 million primarily from lower income tax benefits and higher net interest expense. As a reminder, fourth quarter 2024 and full year 2024 results were impacted by the recognition of two years' worth of income tax benefits from last year's GRC final decision. Sempra California also had $148 million of higher CPUC-based operating margin, net of operating expenses, regulatory disallowances, and a lower cost of capital.

At Sempra Infrastructure, we had $123 million primarily from higher asset and supply optimization, higher transportation results, and lower depreciation on assets held for sale, which were partially offset by lower income tax benefits. At Sempra Parent, the $41 million of higher losses is from higher net interest expense, partially offset by higher income tax benefit, higher investment gains, and other. Please turn to slide nine. To start, I'd like to extend our appreciation to our current shareholders for supporting our mission, and as we look to build upon the momentum established in 2025, Jeff has laid out a series of priorities for 2026, and I'm pleased to note that we're already hit several important milestones. Oncor has successfully reached a comprehensive settlement in its base rate review. The settlement contemplates improvements to the authorized equity layer, ROE, and cost of debt.

If approved by the PUCT, this outcome will better align Oncor's cost structure to the current environment and is also expected to improve Oncor's financial strength and credit metrics during this period of exceptionally high growth. A final order is expected in the first half of this year, and importantly, Oncor expects to earn very close to its authorized ROE over the 2026 to 2030 time frame. At Sempra Infrastructure, Port Arthur LNG phase I remains on schedule for achieving COD at or near the end of 2027. Finally, in California, I'd like to note we continue to be engaged in efforts to improve public policy to support SB-254 follow-on legislative efforts. We look forward to updating you on these priorities on our next earnings call. With that, please turn to the next slide.

We're excited to announce our 2026 to 2030 capital plan totaling $65 billion, an increase of $9 billion over last year's plan. In support of our mission, 95% of Sempra's overall capital program is targeted for utility investments. The capital plan is primarily driven by strong growth at Sempra Texas, most notably from the acceleration of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan. As the remaining 765kV Strategic Transmission Expansion Plan continues to advance, we've taken a conservative approach in developing Oncor's base plan by only adding major transmission projects with existing regulatory approvals and those that are part of the Permian Plan. As a reminder, Oncor is expected to build more than half of the total of ERCOT's estimated $32 billion-$35 billion in required transmission investment. Consequently, nearly 70% of Oncor's planned CapEx is dedicated toward transmission.

Within the plan period, we're tracking significant incremental capital opportunities at Oncor, currently estimated at $10 billion or $8 billion based on Sempra's proportionate ownership share. This upside opportunity primarily includes the non-Permian Plan portion of the 765kV STEP, additional transmission upgrades currently pending ERCOT approval, and potential System Resiliency Plan updates. Oncor accounted for certain LC&I interconnections in the incremental CapEx category. These projects may not have currently met all development milestones to be included in their base capital plan, there's a high likelihood these projects come into the plan in the future. Keep in mind, too, that Oncor's service territory has some of the highest concentration of AI-related and data center growth, which represents additional potential investment opportunities. Please turn to the next slide.

Driven by our expanded capital program, we project overall rate base to increase from $57 billion in 2025 to $97 billion in 2030, an impressive 11% five-year CAGR. Our disciplined capital allocation strategy is designed to produce attractive returns with improving cash flows and distributions to help efficiently fund the exceptional growth we're seeing in Texas. Sempra Texas rate base is projected to grow at a remarkable 18% CAGR over the plan period, while California rate base is projected to grow more modestly as we continue to prudently invest in improvements to safety and reliability. In combination, these investments will help grow our overall regulated footprint as we expect Sempra Texas to surpass Sempra California as the majority of our rate base by 2030. Please turn to the next slide.

With over $50 billion provided by operational cash flows and expected transaction proceeds, we've eliminated the need for new common equity issuances to fund the base capital plan. Due largely to our accomplishments in 2025, operating cash flows have increased by about $5 billion from last year's plan and are expected to be the predominant funding source for our capital campaign. As always, we'll continue to seek the most efficient and lowest-cost financing available to fund the capital plan and other future growth, and we're well-positioned in that regard. For example, we anticipate an additional $2.2 billion of cash generated from the Sempra Infrastructure Partners transaction beyond the 2030 planning period. We'll also retain a 25% residual stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners with an implied equity value of approximately $5.5 billion, which provides further flexibility.

Across the plan period, we remain dedicated to providing investors with an attractive total return complemented by a growing dividend while retaining funding flexibility over the longer term to support our strong expected earnings growth. Please turn to the next slide. We're committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings. The pending SI Partners transaction remains a key driver in helping us meet our goals in this area. After closing, we expect regulated earnings to comprise approximately 95% of our business in 2027 and beyond as we transition to a more pure-play utility holding company. We also have the opportunity to deconsolidate SI Partners debt and have held constructive discussions with the rating agencies about the potential to lower downgrade thresholds once we complete our capital recycling program.

After we close the transaction, we're targeting at least 50-150 basis points of cushion on average above our FFO-to-debt thresholds over the plan period. Please turn to the next slide. Simplifying our portfolio and concentrating our focus on utility investments continues to strengthen our visibility into future financial performance. The growth we see through 2030 and beyond really stems from the work and accomplishments from this past year. As Jeff highlighted earlier, those efforts are driving meaningful improvements across the businesses, including improving financial returns, growing earnings and cash flows. Recycling capital to fund our record capital plan while also strengthening the balance sheet. In combination, these improvements have positioned us to launch a record capital plan without the need for common equity issuances and give us the increasing confidence to be able to provide a robust 2030 earnings per share outlook.

Today, Sempra is affirming our full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.80-$5.30, introducing our full year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10-$5.70, and issuing a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70-$7.50. With today's update, we believe we have one of the highest projected growth rates in the sector, and our 2030 outlook shows that our strong long-term growth expectations continue through the end of the decade. For additional context on our guidance, please refer to slide 17. Now I'm going to hand it back to Jeff to wrap up on our next slide.

Thank you, Karen. Allow me to conclude our prepared remarks today by outlining Sempra's value proposition and key investment highlights. First, we're launching a record $65 billion capital plan that projects 11% annualized growth in rate base across the plan period with visibility into another $9 billion of potential upside opportunities. Second, we're aiming to provide investors improved returns at lower risk in markets with constructive regulation, targeting long-term 95% regulated utilities earnings. Third, our capital allocation is increasingly directed toward Texas, where we expect to derive nearly 60% of our rate base by the end of the decade. Fourth, we've been successful in creating a clear path to fortressing our balance sheet and improving our credit metrics. With efficient sourcing of capital, we now have no need for common equity issuances to fund the base capital plan.

Finally, we're committed to returning capital to shareholders and are targeting annual dividend growth of 2%-4% over the plan period. To summarize, we believe Sempra offers investors an attractive combination of current yield, durable earnings growth, and long-term capital appreciation. We're pleased with our 2025 performance and view it as a foundational year that sets us up for long-term success. Now, I'd like to open the line for your questions.

Thank you. This concludes the prepared remarks. We will now open the line to take your questions. Please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 11 on your telephone keypad. Please make sure your mute function is turned off. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone to signal for questions. Our first question will come from Shar Pourreza from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Morning, Jeff. Maybe just starting off on the 2023 guide that you introduced today, the range obviously seems to indicate about that 7%-9% CAGR you reiterated today from the 2026 base. Can you just help maybe elaborate what moves you into the top half of that 2030 range? Does that variability include any of the $9 billion upside opportunities that you continue to highlight, or could that be accretive to, let's just say, the $7.50 you've got out there? Thanks.

Sure. I appreciate the question, Shar. You recall that we set an expectation for our future growth last year of having a long-term growth rate of about 7%-9%. I think a couple of the key takeaways from the call today is that with all the accomplishments I noted in my prepared remarks back in 2025, we're now seeing the quality and the certainty of our future earnings and cash flows improve. In large measure, that's what's given us increased confidence to be more transparent about our expectations for 2030. That's why we were confident today to go ahead and issue the outlook that you're referencing. The larger items that can impact the long-term outlook are regulatory matters.

I think we've talked about this before. Our 2028 GRC in California, this is something we've been working on in terms of regulatory strategy over the last six months. Caroline and her team should be in a great position to make that filing in May of this year. Second, we'll be working hard to do exactly what you just referenced, which is in the roll forward capital plan, make sure that we're really addressing that $9 billion of future upside. I think there's been some calls or questions earlier today about whether that $9 billion is in the plan or outside the plan. Be very clear, it's certainly outside the plan.

One thing that I think that would be helpful guidance for you, Shar, is recall at this time last year, we had about a $12 billion upside opportunity that we noted, and we were able to move roughly $9 billion or $10 billion of that into the current plan. I think we've got a track record of identifying stuff that's doable. We feel very good about that $9 billion, that's the type of capital that can move us well into the upper end of that 2030 guidance. In terms of key takeaways from my perspective about the outlook, quality and certainty of future earnings and cash flows have improved. How are we going to evaluate our expected growth? It's trending in line or above our long-term guidance of 7%-9%.

Got it. That's perfect. just maybe diving a little bit deeper on California, I guess what's embedded in the earnings growth in 2027, just given the smaller contribution versus prior years? Is there incremental ROE lag that you continue to anticipate, and does a potential reconsideration of attrition year revenues potentially drive that higher? It just seems like, Jeff, just California continues to be somewhat further de-emphasized as you think about capital allocation within the company. just give it a little bit of a sense on that mix. Thanks.

A couple of things here. Really, what you're seeing is that really reflects the impact of the approved attrition from the last GRC as you move from 2026 into 2027. It's also why Caroline and her team are really working aggressively about improving efficiencies and modernizing that business. That's good for affordability too, right? I think we have opportunities there to continue to drive value in California. She also has a basket of regulatory items that she'll be pursuing both this year and into 2027, which could have an impact. We feel like there's continued opportunity, both Shar, in 2026 and 2027 for improvements, but I think we're comfortable with the guidance we have out there for Sempra California at this point.

Got it. Super helpful. Thanks, Jeff. Congrats on the execution today. It's pretty noteworthy. Appreciate it.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. Thank you. Just maybe I appreciate given 2026, 2027, 2030, because there was definitely shaping in 2026 higher, 2027 lower growth prior year, could you give us some sense of just the shaping of the 2028 to 2030? Is it a little more linear just given that it's driven by the rate base growth and the UTM, or just any color on that if possible?

Yeah, Steve, I appreciate the question. I'll give you a couple of thoughts here. Over time, we try to get a lot of input from the investment community and from the sell side about how we can be more transparent about what we think we can accomplish in the future. This includes surveying the other 31 companies in the S&P 500 utility index. As you know, because you follow the sector, some folks have one-year guidance, some people have two-year guidance, a few companies have three-year guidance. Some companies pull their guidance when you're facing a rate case. I think what we wanted to do is there was a lot of really helpful improvements in 2025, right? We've improved our capital plan. We've improved our capital efficiency. We've improved and have a clear path to improving our balance sheet.

I think what's taken place is we're moving from a set of cash flows that were slightly higher beta, Steve, to cash flows now which are more certain. It's really a tribute to the work that Allen and Don Clevenger done in Texas over the last 12 months. This has allowed us to give a lot more visibility into 2030. On top of that, obviously, you can look at all the interim growth rates that you might expect. We're still kind of guided into this longer-term, beyond-the-plan-period 7%-9% growth. Look, it's never going to be a straight line as we've talked about before, but this is a very robust growth story.

It's backed up by what I think is a solid dividend story, and I think you're going to continue to see us find new ways to deploy capital and to officially finance it.

Okay. My other question, thank you for that, is the $9 billion upside at Oncor, Texas. Maybe I know you gave the pieces there. Could you maybe give a little sense of timeline when we'll know the likelihood of that happening and maybe any color just on growth through senior management?

Well, this is an interesting question because it kind of goes to your prior question. If you look at the way we've laid out in our slide presentation, the bar chart for our base capital plan, Steve, and if you look at where that $9 billion of upside capital can layer in, it's really a 2028, 2029, and 2030 story. I think we feel very good about the shape of 2026 and 2027 in that capital plan, but the upside opportunity that you were inquiring about really layers in nicely around growth in 2028, 2029, and 2030. Certainly, Steve, that could shape really the longer-term growth profile as you think about a CAGR through 2030.

What I would do on your current question is refer you to slide 22, and perhaps, Allen, it'd be helpful, if you don't mind, for context, go ahead and highlight what you've pushed into your base capital plan and, to Steve's point, how you think about spending in the upside case.

Yeah, you bet. Thanks for the question, Steve. Starting from the top, I think you all know our prior plan was $36 billion in base capital and $12 billion in incremental opportunities. What we announced today was $47.5 billion in base capital plan and $10 billion in additional incremental opportunities. It was about $11.5 billion increase to the base plan, as is shown on the slide that both Jeff and Karen have referenced, divided into four main categories: Permanent Plan projects at about $6 billion, New Transmission projects about $2 billion, Distribution Upgrades about $2 billion, and the Delaware Basin and Transmission projects about $1 billion. Now, with regards to the incremental bucket, we think we have a really high-quality group of potential projects here that total up to about $10 billion.

I'll give you a little more color on these opportunities that are listed on slide 22. For the first one, the ERCOT non-permanent projects and the 765kV STEP plan, that's about a $3 billion opportunity. Additional transmission upgrades that are referenced as the second bullet, those are transmission upgrades that are presently in the stakeholder process or for which we are awaiting ERCOT approval. That is about another $2.5 billion. The System Resiliency Plan updates for 2028 to 2030 is approximately $2.7 billion, and then the additional LC&I interconnections is approximately $1.2 billion. We feel very solid about our base plan. We think it's heavily de-risked. It's primarily transmission that's either gone through the ERCOT or the PUC process. About 70% of that base is transmission. It's not contingent on things like data center development, and we have a high degree of confidence in the base number.

With regards to incremental, we think and we believe that part or potentially all is very realistic or possible in the next five years. Some of the things that could drive a shift from the incremental bucket to the base plan, I think it's consistent with what Jeff said, and kind of the outer years of the plan, are things such as ERCOT releasing additional transmission projects that we've applied for or in a Regional Transmission Plan. If we were to achieve CCNs for some of these projects that are listed in the incremental bucket, especially for non-permanent base and 765kV projects, that could shift from incremental to base. We're targeting an SRP filing in 2027. When we make that filing, some of those dollars can obviously move into base.

Things like the Batch Zero process that's ongoing at ERCOT and the PUC right now, or ERCOT's Regional Transmission Plan, if there's additional projects for us that are presently incremental, those would move potentially some dollars into the base as well. That's kind of where we are. I feel very good about both the base and incremental.

One last thing I would add, Steve, to your question is I made reference to slide 10 before, but you can graphically see that with a lot of confidence across our management team and as Allen outlined, I think we have the opportunity to go back and do exactly what we did last year, is add this opportunity capital into the plan primarily in 2028, 2029, and 2030. Obviously, you can see that's going to have a fairly dramatic improvement to the projected long-term growth rate.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Nicholas Campanella from Barclays. Your line is open.

Hey. Morning, morning. Thanks for taking the questions and appreciate all the updates. I just wanted to follow up on one of the prior answers, just trying to understand the $9 billion of capital putting you into kind of the upper end of the guidance of, I think that would be $7.50. Just what's kind of the offset that's keeping you at the high end of the range, or is that just being conservative? I do recognize on the prior fourth quarter call, we kind of talked about trending and striving to be above the $7-$9. You had the $0.20 of Oncor accretion, the UTM, a very large capital acceleration at Oncor. I guess just what is that kind of offset that's not really accelerating you beyond that $7.50 high end? Thank you.

It's obviously a high-class problem. When I'm answering questions like this, Nick, so I certainly appreciate you teeing that up. I would say that what's really been dramatic year-over-year, this is really a credit to the work that's taken place in our planning group with Karen, is that we've been able to increase our projection of internally generated cash flows by just over $5 billion. That's a really big deal. We're continuing to improve the credit quality in California, which is important. Even though we've moderated the growth a little bit in California, you've seen continued increase in the growth at Oncor. We're projecting, obviously, not only higher cash flows and earnings there, but a lot higher rate base growth at the 18% level across the five-year plan.

To your point, I feel very good about what Allen just outlined. We have a real opportunity to flex up into the higher end of that 2030 outlook. We're pleased to be able to be one of the few companies in our sector that have that type of certainty of future performance, and we're pleased to announce it on today's call. As you've seen the improvement from last year, what a difference a year makes, right? We've been really working hard to be able to give this type of visibility to our shareholders. I think, to your point, we're going to try to do it again this year. I think Karen laid out the 26 value creation initiatives. The only caveat I would share with you to the heart of your question is we want to get the settlement finalized in Texas.

We're confident we can do that. Secondly, we have a very big transaction at Sempra Infrastructure, and we want to get that done. As we continue to take execution risk off the table, we'll look for opportunities to continue to update about how we think about the future.

Thanks for answering that question. I appreciate it. Then just you said in your prepareds, and I think this is kind of the mantra of how you're operating as always, you're always going to seek the lowest-cost financing to fund CapEx. Just thoughts on the remaining 25% in terms of maybe using something to fund the $9 billion or other strategic actions to limit common equity or otherwise? Thanks.

Look, I appreciate that, Nick. Obviously, the central theme here is we're continuing to build a great business. To do that, we've got a robust growth story, and I think we've got a solid financing plan in place for the base capital plan. I think the heart of your question is how do we think about continuing to officially finance these upside opportunities like some of the ones that Allen talked about today? I think we're in great shape. I'd start with this. Remember, it always starts with improving your operating cash flows. We talked about making this a priority over the last 12 months. Obviously, I've referenced this $5 billion of projected new internally generated cash flows, which is absolutely instrumental in our current capital plan.

Second, it's important to remember that we have $2.2 billion, Nick, of additional proceeds that are owed to us as part of the Sempra Infrastructure transaction that currently fall outside of the plan period. That's something that's important for investors to track. Finally, we have a demonstrated track record. We've actually got a slide in the appendix to our materials about being committed to capital recycling. Recall, too, that we still have a 25% interest in Sempra Infrastructure. As you referenced, that too remains a potential funding opportunity. As I outline these opportunities, remember, we've said this many times in the past, we're going to compete capital. As these large capital programs come forward, utility company by utility company, people continue to be focused on the capital program, but it's just as important that you're focused on sourcing capital efficiently.

That's really been the big story for us over the last 12 months. I think the key takeaway for us is we'll work hard in this fall planning process with Karen's team to make sure, as we roll the plan forward, as we've done in the past, we'll continue to bring forward what we think is going to be a best-in-class, efficient financing plan.

Thank you. Our next question will come from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning to you. Hey, Jeff, what a difference the year makes. Incredible outcome here. Nice to be down, I got to say.

Absolutely. Absolutely. Let me come back to what Nick was pressing you on a second ago. When you think about the moving pieces in the $710 million midpoint here for FY 2030, he was pressing you on the sell down of SIP. What else really would move the deal, right? We talked about the $9 billion. We talked about the SIP. What else would really drive you within that range here? If I can lead you in a certain direction here, how do you think about California in that vein, whether that's a strategic decision or, frankly, whether that's just finding other avenues to accelerate? As much as it hasn't really changed here year-over-year for the CapEx plan, for instance.

Well, let me go back to about 12 months ago. We were facing an opportunity for a rate case in Texas that had four or five years of uncertainty for us. We were in the beginning of the rate case in California. Now, 12 months later, think about this. With the settlement that we have in hand in Texas and with the efforts to kind of finalize that this spring, we're going to have certainty from the regulatory side with that new 2024 test year all the way through 2030, with no expectation of filing a new rate case there probably until the April, May time frame of 2030. Likewise, in California, we've got this year and next year certainty from the last rate case. As you think about 2030, we've got to do a good job of executing on the 2028 GRC.

What you really think about is, let's get the settlement approved in Texas. Let's get the SI transaction closed. Let's spend time with the rating agencies and make sure we're really thoughtful about fortressing our balance sheet. Then we've got a great strategy in place to improve in California. As some of those risk factors to execution come off the table, you should expect this management team to look for opportunities to provide more visibility. Let me come back to a point that you're making around California. California has really high equity layers. Over the last 2 decades, Julien, it's been a top decile regulatory environment. I think there's a lot of positives going on in California today. This really is probably another rerating opportunity for all the investor-owned utilities in the state.

What we have going on with the study bill right now, I think, is quite positive. The other thing you got to remember is we have very high FFO-to-debt. By moderating the growth a little bit, we're still going to meet all of our safety and reliability needs. The cash flow generation from California is really important. At no time in our history have California and Texas been more complementary, and it's happening at just the right time. Texas has the leading growth story in the country. It was the leading growth story last year, and it's even better now. One of the things you should count on, Julien, is we're going to work really hard to continue to improve that growth story. I think Sempra as a whole has a great plan in place.

I think the key takeaway from me as a CEO is we're really earnest about building a better business.

Excellent. Jeff, let me put that to a final point. Do you think you'd come back subsequent to getting this settlement resolved, some degree of California visibility with the next step here with Track 3 or the next study phase, and do something of an analyst day or a full look? Do you think, look, you've given us an incredible FY 2030 to begin with, enough for now? I just want to understand on how you're thinking about cadence of updates, etc.

Well, look, there's no question that we have the opportunity today, relative to the last 12 months, to provide more visibility and more transparency. We think that's always good for the investment community. I think one of the themes that we've been pursuing in the last 12 months is this continued effort to simplify your business, Julien. I think you and I have had this conversation through the years that when you can simplify your business, take risk and challenges away from your investors, that always leads to a rerating story. If there's an opportunity for us to come back and maybe have an analyst day, I think that's really a great idea. We'll take that on board, and that's something we'll think about as we move through the year.

Awesome. All right. I wish you and the team all the best of luck. Cheers. We'll see you soon.

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hey. Thank you so much. Good morning. Maybe digging into the Data Center pipeline, the LNG pipeline in Texas, I was wondering, have you seen slippages, challenges in all of those data centers just physically getting built and online? We've been hearing more about supply chain challenges with labor, certain equipment, transformers, etc. Curious what you're seeing on the ground and what can actually get built?

Yeah. I think we've got a slide that Allen's team's put together at slide 23, which I'll ask Allen to comment on a second. Let me do a couple of things before I pass it to Allen. As we've laid out the $65 billion base capital plan, one of the points we've made on the call, David, is it's really centered around highlighting how much growth we're seeing in Texas. What's really remarkable to me, having been in this industry for close to 30 years, it's really built on the back of transmission. Transmission is the key enabler for generation to come on the system as well as large load customers and to serve residential class.

I think what I've never seen before, and this is probably one of the most valuable pieces of infrastructure in the energy value chain, is Oncor's capital plan is about 70% geared to transmission. The large load growth is important. I know as we go from one earnings call to another earnings call, there's a big focus on data centers. The great news is we're going to try to serve that growth, but that's really upside to our current plan. Let me stop there, Allen, and see if you could give a little bit more color on what you're seeing relative to slide 23 and how you're thinking about making sure that we serve not just the data centers, but many of the other large customers that are really in the queue to sign on to your system.

I'll tell you, as a guy who talks to many, many data center developers in and around our system, I've said for many quarters now, the Oncor queue, last quarter, it was at 226 GW with 210 GW of data. This quarter is at 273 GW with 255 GW in data. The first part of the answer is data centers are continuing to show up looking for service on our system. The variance in the quality or the likelihood of those data centers varies by party. I've explained this on calls many times. You have ones that are very serious and are likely to make, and you have ones that are significantly less serious and are chasing a gold rush. There's many factors that go into the likelihood. I can't predict whether or not they'll make, but you can generally tell where the serious parties are.

We are trying to work the data center and the large load customer angle a number of ways. Obviously, we are working very heavily in the Batch Zero process. ERCOT's working very hard to come up with cross-criteria in the process. They're going through the stakeholder process now with the idea that they'll try to get something to the board by June. There's actually a workshop this morning. I think it's too early to tell the outcome, obviously, of what's going to happen there. More to come on Batch Zero as that develops. We at Oncor are working multiple avenues and not just the Batch Zero process. I'll give you a few examples. We have a number of projects right now that have been pending at ERCOT for a while.

We continue to work those projects through the ERCOT process independent of the Batch Zero process that's being developed right now. A couple of examples, we have a South Dallas project that's nearing completion at ERCOT, we believe, that would provide for 4 GW of load serving capacity in the South Dallas area. It would all be brownfield projects. It could be completed relatively quickly once approved. That's potential opportunity there. In addition to the South Dallas project, we have projects related to about 10 additional GW elsewhere on our system that all those projects are presently moving through the RPG process. Another avenue that we're working on, we are presently developing a list of loads. For ERCOT's 2026 RTP projection, TDUs are due to file by April 1.

Customers would need to meet a number of RTP 26 criteria that align generally with the SB 6 requirements for customers to, one, demonstrate financial commitment, two, provide proof of site control, three, fund ERCOT study cost upfront, four, disclose intended generation sources, and five, identify any other active projects that could impact system reliability. As we sit here today, we have at least 38 GW that meet these standards. We are continuing to actively work with our customers between now and April 1. I strongly believe we'll have more than 38 GW by the time we get to April 1, reminding you, obviously, that our entire system right now is a current peak of about 31 GW. Finally, we are, as has been mentioned on this call and many times before, constructing more than half of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan and the STEP 765kV Plan.

Those transmission projects would obviously provide for additional load additions on our system as well. I'm sorry, Jeff. Go ahead. There's been a lot of focus on Batch Zero. It's very important. We'll continue to be heavily involved. We're working multiple avenues to try and address the need of our large load customers. We'll continue to do so.

Thank you, Allen. The only thing I would add, David, is as you follow the opportunity for data centers and large load customers all across the country hear about different jurisdictions where these things are going forward, we're very confident at Sempra that the largest opportunity in the United States for data centers on Texas. In the Texas region, the largest opportunity sits in the footprint at Oncor. You can see that on slide 23 where they now have upwards of 273 GW that are kind of in the queue. We remain optimistic that this AI process moving forward, the commitment to data centers, is very important all across the country.

We're going to be very aggressive supporting the governor and the economic agenda in Texas to make sure we can be accommodative of all customers through the lens of also making sure that we can manage cost for our residential and other customer classes.

Yeah. Excellent. No, thank you for all that color. Really helpful context. Separately, I was just curious if you could touch on how do your credit metrics maybe trend through the plan here through 2030? Are there peaks and troughs that you need to manage as you go?

Sure. I mean, obviously, this was an issue that was front and center last year. We've got a lot of work that we've done in the last 12 months to make sure that we've got a clear path to not only a stronger balance sheet. I think you can see on one of our slides, we've talked about guiding toward improving our whole code to total debt ratios, driving down our debt to equity ratio to 49% or below. Karen, you've done a lot of work on the balance sheet. You want to provide a quick update generally about how we're thinking about it?

Sure. Absolutely. Thanks, Jeff. Yeah. Maintaining the balance sheet really is a priority for us together with those investment-grade credit ratings. The SI Partners transaction is key to this. The proceeds are going to support our balance sheet, eliminate the need for common equity in our base plan. After closing, we're aiming for our regulated earnings to comprise approximately 5% of our total earnings composition. As a reminder, that's really important with the rating agencies. In addition to that, we're going to be able to deconsolidate Sempra Infrastructure's debt. We've had really constructive discussions with the rating agencies about what this means for our downgrade thresholds. We'll be meeting with them and getting updates from them. Over the last 12 months, we've also improved our cash flows for our five-year plan by $5 billion. Again, adding to those credit metrics.

Our target of 50-150 basis points, we feel really good about that. I think we'll fine-tune that later this fall once we close the SI transaction and have an opportunity to go meet with the rating agencies, go through all of that. I think the key takeaway here is over the period, I feel really good about where they are. They're not going to fluctuate. They're going to fluctuate a little bit, but there's not a lot. It's pretty solid once we get past this transaction. It's only going to get better when we start improving those cash flows.

David, the only thing I'd say, and I've made this comment earlier in the call, our focus right now is making sure we get a great outcome for the base rate review in Texas, which we're expecting this spring. We're also focused, with Justin's help, on making sure that we successfully close that SI transaction. Over the next three, four, five months, there'll be a lot of work done closely with the rating agencies. We've made this a priority. I think Karen's team want to make sure that we gave a little bit of guidance about how much cushion we want to put on the balance sheet. This will be an evolving conversation where we can provide more details to you as we get further along in our plan execution.

Okay. Perfect. All makes sense. Thank you so much.

Thank you. Our next question will come from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho. Your line is open.

Hey. Good morning, team. Good morning, Jeff. Just two quick ones, more housekeeping. On slide 12, that $6 billion chart, you talk about the $2.2 billion of cash expected after the plan period. Do you have to do some bridge financing or something to meet the needs through 2030? How do you handle that? I have another follow-up.

Yeah. Currently, in the current base capital plan, we've got our financing lined up. We're not going to need to basically go into that type of financing approach. There are opportunities, obviously. I think as people think about Anthony, future capital increases, those are the type of things we'll look at as you get into that 2032, 2023 time frame, and you have the opportunity to monetize that $2.2 billion. One other thing I would mention is when there are capital recycling opportunities in our company or even at SI, those proceeds could be helpful in returning more capital out of SI earlier in the plan instead of waiting until that 2032, 2033 time frame.

Great. You may have answered this with Steve's question earlier. Slide 10, you talk about $9 billion of CapEx opportunities. Slide 21 on Texas or slide 22, I'm sorry, you talk about $10 billion of CapEx opportunities. Is just some of the Oncor opportunities outside the five-year plan?

No. I'm sorry for that confusion. It's just our relative ownership, right? They're talking about their 100% opportunity. When you see it on slide 10, that's really our 80.25% interest of what they're projecting.

Great. Thanks so much. Congrats on a good quarter.

Sempra (SRE) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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