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F500-2021-407-Polaris

People turn to this Minnesota-based company when they want to add some action in their lives, whether that be cruising sand dunes with one of the firm’s off-road vehicles or plowing through snowy mountains with its popular snowmobiles. In May, the company announced Michael Speetzen was named CEO.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 66th running of the list.

F500-2020-442-Polaris

Polaris, which is headquartered in Medina, Minn., manufactures snowmobiles, ATVs, motorcycles, and more.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 65th running of the list.

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Polaris (PII): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Polaris

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Day, and welcome to the Polaris First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to J.

C. Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Alison, and good morning or afternoon, everyone. I am J. C. Weigelt, Vice President of Investor Relations at Polaris. Thank you for joining us for our twenty twenty five first quarter earnings call.

We will reference a slide presentation today, which is accessible on our website at ir.polaris.com. Joining me on the call today are Mike Sveetsen, our Chief Executive Officer and Bob Mack, our Chief Financial Officer. Both have prepared remarks summarizing the twenty twenty five first quarter as well as our expectations for 2025, then we'll take your questions. During the call, we will be discussing various topics, which should be considered forward looking for the purpose of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward looking statements.

You can refer to our twenty twenty four ten ks for additional details regarding risks and uncertainties. All references to twenty twenty five first quarter actual results and future period guidance are for our continuing operations and are reported on an adjusted non GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of the presentation for the GAAP to non GAAP adjustments. Now, I will turn the

call over to Mike Speetzen. Go ahead, Thanks, JC, and good morning, everyone.

Thank you for joining us today. 2025 has continued to be a dynamic period for our industry. These are certainly challenging times, but we're managing the situation thoughtfully.

And as I mentioned in our last earnings call, it has become increasingly evident over the last several months that one of Polaris' greatest strengths continues to be our determined and unrelenting team, one that is willing and able to conquer any challenge. Today, Bob and I will walk through how the business performed in the first quarter, share more on our strategic approach to mitigating the impact from tariffs and discuss how we intend to emerge stronger to deliver sales growth, stronger earnings power and higher returns. In Q1, we continued to focus on managing what is within our control. As expected, sales were down 12%, driven by our decision to continue reducing shipments to manage dealer inventory amidst a prolonged downturn in powersports and a higher promotional environment. Margins were slightly below our expectations due to elevated promotions in the industry.

Tariffs did not materially impact the first quarter results due to timing and the deferral of related costs. We partially offset these headwinds through ongoing operational savings, including lower manufacturing spend and favorable material and logistics costs during the quarter. Adjusted EPS of negative $0.90 came in at the midpoint of the guidance range we provided in January. North American retail was down 7% with relatively better performance in our utility business versus recreational products. On our prior earnings call, we highlighted the positive indicators around ridership, pent up demand and continued interest in the powersports category.

This point was reinforced this last quarter in our snowmobile business as late season snow in the Flatlands resulted in strong retail growth of approximately 50% in the quarter. Additionally, in a RZR consumer study we recently conducted that looked at vehicle usage and owner repurchase rates, RZR ridership and engagement within the category remains strong. In fact, over 90% of RZR riders in our study say they are planning to ride the same or more than last year. However, more than 40% of those we surveyed acknowledged that they're holding on to their vehicle longer than they typically would given factors like interest rates and economic uncertainty. The share story was mixed this quarter as we gained share in motorcycles and pontoons, but lost modest share in ORV.

Remember that we were among the first to execute a dealer inventory reduction strategy, demonstrating our commitment to a strong partnership with our dealers. We continue to see ORV share being impacted by elevated promotions from some of the Japanese OEMs that continue to lag Polaris in reducing dealer inventory. In our view, this is a short term issue, and we believe that we remain well positioned to gain back share with our innovative product line across ATBs and side by sides once inventory levels normalize and industry retail stabilizes. The uncertainty in today's market reminds me of 2018 when we were dealing with the initial wave of tariffs that were placed on China. The environment is fluid and changes daily.

My goals then as CFO and now as CEO are consistent, successfully navigate the situation with the best team in powersports by staying close to our dealers, preserving cash and positioning this great American company to emerge stronger than ever and further cementing Polaris as the leader in powersports. We've decided to withdraw our full year guidance that we provided in January. This was not an easy decision. However, given the fluidity of the tariff environment, including the frequency of new tariffs, changing tariff rates and the temporary suspension of certain tariffs coupled with the potential impact to consumer spending, we have determined that withdrawing our full year guidance is the most prudent course of action. We're actively monitoring developments and will reevaluate our decision on guidance once we have greater clarity.

Our commitment remains to stay focused on navigating these challenges and positioning Clarus for sustained long term success. Retail trends in the quarter were similar to what we've seen in recent quarters. Within off road, our utility retail was down high single digits, led by double digit declines in ATVs. Recreation was down high teens, driven by greater than 20% declines in RZR and youth vehicles. Volatility amongst intra quarter months was elevated with double digit swings month to month with February being down roughly 20%.

It's worthwhile calling out our premium products such as Polaris Expedition, Ranger XD and Ranger XP North Star as these products had positive retail in the quarter. The sustained demand for our premium feature rich products highlights strength among cash buyers. Within on road, the motorcycle market continues to be pressured both domestically and internationally due to its discretionary nature. However, Indian motorcycles outperformed the industry and gained share in North America driven by the new Power Plus lineup in our heavyweight portfolio of bikes. In marine, the boat show season is behind us and retail at those shows was flat to slightly down against last year.

During our recent dealer visits, there was a lot of excitement from dealers regarding the new boats we launched and while we expect sales pressure to remain in the marine industry due to high cost and the discretionary nature of the product, we believe we can win share with our innovative portfolio of boats. As previously mentioned, we also continue to see OEMs in the marine space impacting share with aggressive promotions to help dealers move non current inventory. While this negatively impacts us in the short term, we do not believe this is a long term strategy to move share. In the first quarter of twenty twenty five, Bob and I spent time meeting with some of our off road and marine dealers. This is an important part of the job and I always walk away from those meetings impressed with the partnership we have with our dealers and their commitment to Polaris.

My takeaway from those meetings are that partnership matters. They feel like we're listening and are making appropriate adjustments and they were appreciative of us meeting our commitment to reduce inventory last year and into this year. Innovation matters. Dealers feel we're listening to our customers and it can be seen in the features we added to our model year '25 lineup. Innovation also includes quality where we've seen significant improvements in model year '25 warranty claims and dealers confirm that Polaris is among the best in this regard.

Lastly, dealers voice concern and uncertainty for the remainder of the year. We assured them that we would remain close and make the appropriate adjustments to help ensure their businesses are protected. From our visits, it was clear that those dealers who are focusing on all five profit centers within their dealership are faring better financially given strength in service, used vehicles and accessories. So while uncertainty remains high, I feel our relationship with dealers is healthy and strong. We understand each other's priorities and are working hard to ensure we experience mutual success.

Now shifting gears to tariffs. Every day seems to bring a new headline or new information. So we're staying focused, keeping a level head and being proactive. This includes going to Washington D. C.

To meet with our elected officials and their staff to reemphasize the fact that we are the only major U. S.-based powersports company. Our story started more than seventy years ago as a small business founded in Minnesota. And while we have grown to be a global company, we maintain our strong sense of pride being headquartered in The U. S.

With the most significant U. S. Manufacturing, testing and R and D presence in the industry. We employ more than 8,000 Americans while supporting approximately 35,000 American workers employed by our U. S.

Dealers. In addition, approximately 65% of our U. S. Production value stems from U. S.

Content. Unfortunately, the tariff policies as written today have created an environment that disadvantages Polaris for our U. S. Manufacturing footprint. As we mentioned at our Capital Markets Day in March, we import approximately $250,000,000 of components from China to The U.

S. To be used to assemble vehicles. Under the current tariff regime for China, we are forecasting an incremental tariff rate of approximately 145% on our U. S. Imported Chinese components, equating to approximately 200,000,000 to $240,000,000 in new estimated tariff costs this year.

This 145% tariff rate doesn't apply to competitors who also source from China, but manufacture in other countries like Mexico or Japan and then ship products to The U. S. The same goes for many of the retaliatory tariffs throughout the rest of the world, which equates to a potential gross tariff impact this year of approximately $35,000,000 This current environment puts us at a competitive disadvantage because we have a U. S. Manufacturing footprint.

All in, we expect to incur between approximately $320,000,000 to $370,000,000 of gross tariff costs, of which approximately 60,000,000 to $70,000,000 was budgeted within our original guidance. With costs being capitalized in inventory, we can defer a large portion of these costs into the back half of the year and 2026. In response to the tariffs, we've launched a tariff mitigation strategy. Following the initial tariff announcements in February, we mobilized cross functional teams to evaluate the implications for our supply chain and cost structure. These teams meet daily, we have war rooms and have already implemented several actions to help mitigate the potential tariff impact.

To manage this complexity and reduce our exposure, we're executing a four pronged mitigation strategy focused on: one, making adjustments to our supply chain and manufacturing to diversify sourcing and optimize our production footprint second, initiating cost control initiatives to offset pressures elsewhere in the business third, reprioritizing markets and pricing where appropriate to preserve margin and finally, ongoing government affairs and advocacy to ensure our perspective as a U. S. Manufacturer is represented in policy discussions. Within our supply chain and manufacturing footprint, our immediate focus has been on our Chinese content given the size of the impact. We've started moving sourcing out of China and into other countries including The U.

S. In 2018. By the end of this year, we anticipate we'll have reduced our Chinese sourced parts by approximately 30% with plans in place to make further reductions in 2026. Regarding our manufacturing in Mexico and U. S.

MCA compliance, approximately 95% of our U. S. Imports from Mexico are U. S. MCA qualified.

We are working to increase that percentage to further reduce tariff exposure. On the cost control front, we acted quickly to reduce discretionary spending, including tightening travel requirements and placing a selective near term pause on hiring. As Bob will discuss shortly, we're taking a disciplined and proactive approach to managing costs, preserving liquidity and ensuring Polaris remains well positioned in this period of uncertainty. In response to retaliatory tariffs, we've taken action to reduce shipments of Slingshot and certain motorcycles to Canada and motorcycles to Europe for a short period. We do not fear losing any material sales and share given current dealer inventory levels in those regions and we can reevaluate this approach midyear.

We also pre positioned motorcycles in Europe ahead of the announcement of retaliatory tariffs. We're carefully assessing our pricing strategy to ensure we remain competitive while navigating the complexity of the current trade environment. We began meeting with congressional members as well as leaders from the administration a couple of weeks ago and will continue to do so. My takeaway from those conversations is that we're approaching this in the right manner and the message is resonating, that the only U. S.

Headquarter powersports company is being impacted the most. We believe the Trump administration understands our issues and we remain hopeful that productive negotiations on tariffs between the administration and key countries will progress in the near term. As you can see, there's a lot going on and we are implementing actions that can reduce our tariff exposure over the short and long term. What I just walked through is not an exhaustive list. There are several other actions identified that our teams are working diligently on and we'll execute them once we have further clarity on tariff policy.

Adding together the new net impact from tariffs, our mitigation efforts and the accounting deferral, we estimate the impact from tariffs in 2025 to be less than $225,000,000 Our teams are working hard on large a large funnel of mitigation actions with the goal of reducing the tariff impact even further. While we manage the immediate challenges of tariff, my leadership team and I remain focused on the critical long term initiatives that are expected to drive value for customers, dealers and shareholders long into the future. Mark Suarez, our VP of Off Road Operations did an excellent job at our Capital Markets Day in March laying out some of the actions his team has taken to build a more efficient operating culture in our manufacturing facilities. So far his team has executed their agenda and we're ahead of our plan in our manufacturing facilities. We also continue to push the pace on innovation and have some exciting products launching later this year that are expected to enhance our industry leading portfolio of vehicles and boats already in dealer showrooms.

Some of you saw the new Bennington digital helm at the Miami Boat Show and many of our analysts were able to experience the dynamic shock technology of our snowmobiles in West Yellowstone. Turning to working capital. We committed to you in January that we were focused on lowering our finished goods inventory and I'm proud to say the team did a great job of that during the first quarter. This effort helped us achieve our highest Q1 operating free cash flow in nine years. There's more work to be done, but the progress is measurable.

Lastly, on dealer health, a broader team and I have met with many dealers this year. I'm encouraged by the feedback I get from dealers and the rankings our team receives from dealer surveys. We're again ranked number one in the categories of sales and service. We achieved a Net Promoter Score of over 70, which indicates we're listening and making the right investments in our dealers. This partnership is vital in both good times and bad, and I'm confident that we are a trusted partner to our dealers.

So while there's a great deal of uncertainty in the market today, we have a plan in place to help mitigate the impact from tariffs. Additionally, we're executing our long term strategy to build to deliver shareholder value through sales growth, strong earnings power and higher returns. The current market conditions will not cause us to deviate from our strategy and I remain confident that Polaris will emerge as a stronger company and will generate above average return for shareholders. I'm going to turn it over to Bob to provide you with more details on the financials. Bob?

Thanks Mike and good morning or afternoon to everyone on the call today. Our first quarter sales met expectations and the decline versus prior year was driven by planned production cuts to help manage dealer inventory. Promotions were higher than we expected which was somewhat offset by slightly more volume than we had expected as our plants continue to improve build rates. Our international business dropped 16% due to weak markets in off road and on road. We believe our international dealer inventory is healthier now and now positioned to grow once retail demand returns.

PG and A sales were flat year over year with strong parts and aftermarket apparel sales offsetting attachments on lower whole good volumes. The main challenges to our margins were volume, promotions and FX, partially offset by lower operational and warranty expenses. There was no material impact on our results from tariff costs this quarter with much of the current tariff costs deferred to later periods. Turning to Off Road, sales were down 10% due to lower volume and higher promotions somewhat offset by a favorable mix. The ORV industry in North America continues to be driven by weakness in consumer sentiment and dealer focus on inventory levels.

While inventory continues to improve for the industry, it seems there is still more work to do before dealers feel comfortable with their position in this current environment. That said, we believe inventory levels of our vehicles and dealerships are healthy both relative to historical norms and in comparison to other OEMs. While the late snow did not have a material impact on our sales, it did provide some relief in dealer inventory after two consecutive week snow seasons. Strong retail in Q1 resulted in sequential dealer inventory coming down over 20% from Q4 twenty twenty four to Q1 twenty twenty five. Gross profit margin was down 147 basis points with much of the drag being driven by promotions and the prolonged downturn in powersports and the macro economy.

I do want to touch on warranty expense as this was a positive contributor to the quarter. We have invested heavily in quality over the past five plus years and believe we are beginning to see positive results from those investments in our model year 25 vehicles. Like our progress with lean and operational efficiencies, we should start to see improvements in warranty positively contribute to our margins in a normalized environment. In addition, customers are taking notice of these investments as indicated by our NPS scores for product sales and service, which are at five year highs. Switching to On Road, sales during the quarter were down 20% driven by a challenging motorcycle market and the timing of engine deliveries at our Exim business in France.

For Exim, we expect this issue to be resolved this quarter and to make up lost sales in the back half of the year. For motorcycles, it was encouraging to see the heavyweight business turnaround in the quarter, but that was not enough to offset the declining market. Indian motorcycles gained meaningful market share during the quarter driven by our heavyweight business. Adjusted gross profit was down four eighty nine basis points driven by a year over year mix headwind and elevated promotions. Margins were better than we had planned due to operational efficiencies.

In Marine, sales were down 7% in line with our planned reduction in shipments as we continue to take a build to order approach. The latest industry data we have shows the pontoon industry is down 11% year to date, which is a continuation of the prolonged downturn we have seen in Marines since 2023. Within Bennington, we continue to see good traction with our new M Series pontoon, which has a rich mix versus the prior model it replaced. Also in Bennington, we started recently started to ship a pontoon with standard features at a nationally advertised price, which is being well received by both dealers and consumers. Gross profit in Marine was down given unfavorable absorption from lower volumes.

Moving to our financial position, we have instituted our recessionary playbook given the combination of this prolonged downturn in powersports coupled with the uncertainty ahead of us around trade and economic policy. We did not make this decision lightly and this operating model could be short lived if we have favorable clarity after the ninety day pause on tariffs. However, we thought it was prudent to enact these principles proactively to protect cash and maintain strategic flexibility. Our first priority is cash preservation. We made good progress in Q1 reducing working capital and generating stronger than normal free cash flow.

We have also taken a fresh look at the CapEx budget and have identified a list of actions to defer at this time. These actions are focused more on maintenance versus growth or innovation. Emerging stronger is a key part of this operating model. And while you will see modest reductions in R and D, these reductions will not have an impact on product launch timing. The last big bucket of actions involves managing costs.

We have removed approximately 10% of our salaried workforce last year and have paused spending in some areas to help control costs. We are also evaluating a number of opportunities that would be acted on upon after we have clarity on tariffs and it makes sense both financially and strategically. We intend to be very prudent with capital until we return to a more predictable environment. But just to be clear, even as we model downside scenarios for Q2 given the current economic landscape, we do not anticipate concerns with liquidity. We are maintaining our regular dialogue with existing lending partners, including evaluating options for additional flexibility.

Therefore, we plan to remain agile in this environment and expect to have more clarity around tariffs in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we are positioning ourselves prudently to withstand the turbulence and come out stronger for our employees, dealers, customers and shareholders. Given that we have withdrawn full year guidance, we thought it would be helpful to provide more information on our second quarter assumptions with the caveat that these do not incorporate any change in the current global tariff policy as it stands today. We also do not know what the impact the current environment will have on retail demand and thus our assumptions today assume retail remains modestly lower year over year. First, we expect second quarter sales to be between 1,600,000,000.0 and $1,800,000,000 We intend on shipping fewer units than we retail due to softer retail environment and our desire to hold dealer inventory close to current levels, coupled with our decision to delay some shipments to Canada and Europe.

We are also assuming the current elevated promotional environment continues. We estimate incremental tariffs will impact the P and L between 10,000,000 to $20,000,000 for the quarter. Within our tariff mitigation strategy, we think it's important to know we have three buckets of action items. The first are live actions we are already executing. The second includes actions we are reviewing and likely to execute soon.

The last bucket of actions requires more clarity on trade policies before we can act. As Mike noted, if the current tariff levels do not change, particularly for China, we estimate the fiscal year twenty twenty five net new tariff impact to our P and L after mitigation and deferral will be less than $225,000,000 We are in the early stages of these efforts and the goal is to significantly reduce this burden. This does not include the original 60,000,000 to $70,000,000 of tariff costs we budgeted for the Section three zero one tariffs. We have strong relationships with our dealers. Our innovation is winning in the market and we continue We do not see anything in this current environment that derails our long term strategy to make Polaris the company with stronger earnings power and greater returns.

Yes, these are certainly interesting times, but a sound strategy has us aligned so we can manage through this dynamic environment with the goal of emerging stronger. With that, I'll turn it back over to Mike to wrap up the call.

Go ahead, Thanks, Bob. I'll wrap up with a few comments. First, we have a plan in place to mitigate a portion of the tariff costs impacting our business.

We are positioned to execute additional mitigation strategies as we gain clarity on tariff policy, including being prepared for the end of the ninety day reciprocal tariff pause on most countries. We've implemented our recession playbook focused on cash preservation and liquidity. We decided to implement this operating model as our industry has been in a prolonged downturn coupled with uncertainty around tariffs and consumer health. We'll continue to monitor the evolving environment and adapt our approach accordingly. Lastly, we haven't lost sight of our long term strategy.

I've been talking about since 2022. We strongly believe in our position as the global leader in powersports. We have clear long term financial targets that can unlock value for our shareholders. This is taking longer than we expected due to macroeconomic factors, but trust that we can measure meaningful changes happening within our operations and dealer partnerships that give me great confidence that we are making significant progress. We're focused on the items within our control and I believe with a little clarity it will become more evident that all the work we've done has positioned Polaris to emerge stronger from this.

We appreciate your continued support. And with that, I'll turn it over to Allison to open the line up for questions.

Thank you. And we will now begin the question and answer session. And our first question today will come from Joe Altobello with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. Just wanted to circle back on the tariff mitigation efforts that you guys are undertaking here. You did allude to potential pricing strategies.

And I'm just curious how much pricing might play a role, particularly in off road. I would think that you guys would be kind of a first mover there. And so I'm curious how much are we thinking about and when might you need to make that call?

Yes. We provided clarity to our dealers late last week that pricing is going to remain as is through the May. I mean, look, reality is we're going to be bearing significantly more costs than many of our competitors. But we're also dealing with an industry that has, I would say, a fairly inelastic buyer. We've got retail rates that are continuing to be down.

We've clearly been in a recession from a powersports perspective. And so adding price at this point becomes a very difficult proposition. So what I've done is I've told the team, we're not looking at that as a relief valve. We've got to look inside. It's why we're moving so aggressive around the supply chain.

The team is making really good progress. I mean, the fact that we had moved 15% of the content from China out prior to '25 And in 2025, we're going get that number up to 30%. And quite frankly, we've got the team out investigating if they can go even further or faster. And I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the negotiations with the administration. I was encouraged with the news that came out last night, whether it's substantiated or not, it's tough to know around relief for the automotive sector.

I think the administration has a far greater appreciation for some of the very detailed dynamics that we and others who manufacture in The United States and employ labor that works on high margin vehicles and the fact that we're relying on less than 9% of our total cost of goods sold coming in from China. So it's very low. And I think there's an appreciation for that. And I think we can find a way to work through that. So we've got a lot of different avenues, and we're not viewing prices some very easily movable item.

We obviously will take a look at it. It will probably be very detailed segment by segment, country by country, and there'll be more to come on that down the road.

Very helpful. And just to kind of follow-up on that. In terms of off road, you talked about the elevated promotion levels and a lot of your competitors that need to clean up some aged inventory. Where are we in terms of if you look at it as a baseball game, what inning are we in, in terms of that cleanup process? And when do you think you guys might be able to start regaining market share again?

Yes. I think as it relates to off road, I would say we're probably getting into the later innings of the game. The good news is that everybody has improved from where they were last year. But we still have some competitors that have DSOs that are 2x where we're at. Now granted they're much smaller player than us, but the day sales that they have sitting at the dealer are 2x and other competitors are 20%, maybe 30% above where we're at.

And their non current mix is unfavorable relative to us at the dealer level. And I think the concern is that we continue to see that non current discounting that's got a heavy impact and we're just not going to participate in that. Those are likely not buyers of our product anyway. Many of these products are being offered at $15,000 off to clear out inventory that's two, maybe three years old. So I think we're there's definitely been progress made and it's really going to depend on when retail starts to stabilize, because the two are heavily correlated.

But we're confident that once we get into an environment that the inventory is much cleaner throughout the network, there is some progress against that and the consumer starts to stabilize, we're going to be in a great spot to win. I talked about it. The new products that we've been coming out with as well as what we have left to come out this year, We know from talking with our dealers, they're resonating with our customer set. And I mentioned the razor survey. We're doing a lot of work behind the scenes to understand the dynamics with our customers.

And the great news is they're sticking with Polaris. The great news is they're still using their product. The bad news is they're deferring repurchase and trade in because of the current market conditions. So I think getting market condition clarity is going to be good on many levels and I think we're well positioned to take advantage of that.

Your next question today will come from Megan Klap of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Unsurprisingly, I wanted to follow-up on tariffs. Obviously, a lot of helpful detail in the slides, so appreciate that. I guess, you're saying less than $225,000,000 of net new post mitigation tariff impact this year, most of that in the back half. So if we just say, let's say, 200,000,000, the simple math of just doubling that would suggest it could be $426,000,000 but guess presumably some of your mitigation strategies also might ramp over the year.

So any possibility just to help us with how we should be thinking about at current rates what the annualized impact from tariffs would be in 2026?

Yes. We intentionally Megan steer away from that because of what you mentioned as you're asking the question. I mean, the team is working the mitigation. I mean, a lot of it is really coming down to resourcing components out of China. And so it's difficult to get at a run rate.

Your math, the simple math works, but I would argue ignores the fact that we will have taken 30% of the China purchase content out as we go through the course of 2025. And so you have to annualize that. And then obviously, we're looking to accelerate and do more in 2025. We don't have a number on that yet, but the team is off working on it. And then obviously, we have plans around 2026, which would then make further reductions as we layer those resourcing opportunities in through the course of the year.

So, a lot of detailed math. I mean, to be honest with you, we're just spending our time trying to get our arms around the current year. As you can imagine, it's a highly complex environment. And as you've seen just in the course of the last few days, tends to change pretty rapidly. And so we're really focused on just understanding the current impact, where do we think that's going and we'll have more to say as we get later in the year and have more clarity around tariffs as well as the output from our sourcing initiatives.

I think the other thing to think about Megan is, the bulk of our tariff pressure is coming from the increased reciprocal and IEPA tariffs on China. There's been discussion yesterday about potential relief from the for the autos because they have the same tariff stacking challenge we do. That's obviously a conversation we're having with the administration as well. And of all the tariffs that are out there, I think the one that's likely to come under the most pressure is the 100%, but for us is a total of about 175% when you stack it all on China, because that's creating a lot of pressure on the overall economy and the retail CEOs and the rest of the folks have been up in DC the last week or so and talking to the administration about what that's going to mean at retail level in places like Target and Walmart and Best Buy and how that's going to impact the consumer. And so, I think we'll see action on that probably ahead of many of the others.

And look, I'll give the administration a lot of credit. I mean, Bob alluded to it. They we attended a dinner last week here in Minneapolis and had a chance to talk to the CFO of Target. Obviously, Brian Cornell who runs Target was up with Home Depot and Walmart.

We were in Washington last week at the White House. We had the opportunity to sit down with the Director of the Economic Advisor to Trump. We're going to be talking to the Commerce Secretary this week. So they are asking a lot of questions to really understand how this is all embedded in the economy. And so things are developing fast and furious.

And we're trying to stay close to it and make sure that we have a voice that they understand how it works. The nice part is we're able to draft somewhat with auto because it's a very similar operating model. And so we'll obviously have more to say. But I would steer you away from trying to just annualize what we've got in front of us because there are a lot of moving parts.

Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you. And as a follow-up, I just wanted to ask about the balance sheet and liquidity. Bob, you did mention like even modeling downside scenarios, you don't anticipate any concerns with liquidity.

I guess, I'd just be curious whether those downside scenarios that you're modeling would contemplate any additional actions to preserve cash, whether it be maybe cutting the dividend or taking actions to raise equity. And I guess the reason I ask is even in a base case scenario, I guess assuming that just put that tariff impact into our model, it does seem like leverage could be hitting six, seven times at some point this year. Obviously, a lot of assumptions have to go into that, but would just be curious, in those downside scenarios, how you think about additional actions to preserve cash?

Yes. Let me start and then I'll flip it over to Bob. First and foremost, I mean, we've been a dividend payer for twenty nine years as a dividend aristocrat. That's important. This company has sustained that through a lot of challenging times.

That said, liquidity is more important. And so that will factor in heavily in our calculus. We're early days. We're not going to jump to a decision. Like I said earlier, I mean, I was preparing for this call and saw the Wall Street Journal article pop across the screen that Trump was contemplating relief for the autos.

I would hate to make a decision that takes away twenty nine years' worth of history without having all the facts. So it is an item that is on the list. It's something that we will talk like we do with our Board at every Board meeting. But our immediate focus is going to be around things like working with our lending group to see what kind of flexibility we have around covenants. And we're doing everything we can to preserve liquidity and trying to work to stave off those things that could take the liquidity away primarily around tariffs.

Yes. So at the end of the quarter, we had $1,000,000,000 available on our revolver plus another $300,000,000 in cash, so effectively $1.4 of available liquidity. We have been making progress on working capital. We had good strong cash generation for the quarter.

So we're very focused on that as a first level just because it's fairly immediate. CapEx, we're reviewing as we said, we started the year with a plan of about two fifteen. Right now, we're targeting about 200. I think there's more opportunity there as we continue to go through that. As Mike said, it's early innings here.

So, we're continuing to scrub that and make sure that we keep it focused on innovation and growth, but look to defer things that aren't critical for this year. We've been focusing on unprofitable business lines. As you've seen, we discontinued production of the FTR and Timber Sled as those were not profitable businesses for us. So wound those up. And we're just going to we'll continue to look at all the other options that are out there as Mike talked about.

But we're also going to be conservative to not make any long term decisions that really deal with the short term problem if we can avoid it. We do have a great bank group. It's been our bank group for many, many years. They've been supportive historically, in these type of situations. They were extremely supportive of us during COVID.

We've had a lot of discussions with them. They're aware of our projections as we look out through the year. And so, we'll continue to discuss with them as we need it covenant holidays, things like that, and likely an extension of the $400,000,000 term loan that comes up in July. So, we're actively looking at those issues and working through how we'll deal with them. But like I said, we have a very supportive bank group and I don't foresee that being a problem.

And our next question today will come from Alice Wicklund of Baird. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thanks gentlemen for all the helpful color on tariffs. Obviously dealing with a lot, but maybe switching gears, I want to just dig in on retail a little bit more. I mean you talked about some pretty wild swings month to month in the quarter. Maybe share a little more detail on that, what you think is driving that?

And is there any color you can share on what you've seen so far in April?

Yes. It's really tough to draw any conclusions. I mean the problem is there was so much noise. Weather wasn't great. You had the fits and starts around tariffs, economic data.

I think when we step back it's I think it's going to be chalked up to a lot of the same attributes we've been speaking to in terms of persistently high inflation, interest rates obviously remaining high. But I think what's getting added to that is the uncertainty index has gone through the roof and you can see that showing up in things like the consumer confidence index, which is now I think at a twelve or a fourteen year I think people are just nervous. And they're seeing there's a good portion of our customer base that is invested in the stock market, 401s, etcetera. And they're seeing these wild swings. And when they look at products like ours, of which about 40% are highly discretionary, things like razors, snowmobiles, spending a lot of money when you're worried about the could there be higher inflation in the economy?

Is there risk to your job? I think those things are all playing in and we're seeing that volatility. I would tell you April really, we haven't seen anything much different than what we saw in March. The good news is we haven't seen it get significantly weak relative to where we were expecting. But at the same time, we were hoping to start to see some positive green shoots.

And I think just the overhang created from tariffs as well as just the uncertainty that that drives into the broader economic equation is probably causing a fair amount of consumer reluctance to spend on very large items purchase items.

Mike talked about promo, and obviously we've seen promo in the market to move used or older units, prior model year units with some of the Japanese, as they look to clean up that inventory. But the other piece of promo that's come in has been a fair amount of interest rate buy down and that has been relatively effective in getting retail moving. I think all the manufacturers put more interest rate promo in the market in March and that sort of turned the tide a bit from February. We continue to see that in April.

So what that shows is that part of the consumer reluctance to buy is driven by interest rates. And I think now people are pretty convinced that we're not going to see interest rates come down in the near term. So, that type of promo has been effective. Unfortunately, it's kind of expensive.

Polaris (PII) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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