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<span data-sheets-value="{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Operating profits for this Fortune 500 mainstay nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 10 spots in the rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.&quot;}" data-sheets-userformat="{&quot;2&quot;:12673,&quot;3&quot;:{&quot;1&quot;:0},&quot;10&quot;:2,&quot;11&quot;:4,&quot;15&quot;:&quot;Calibri, Arial&quot;,&quot;16&quot;:12}" data-sheets-textstyleruns="{&quot;1&quot;:0}{&quot;1&quot;:27,&quot;2&quot;:{&quot;6&quot;:1}}{&quot;1&quot;:34}">Operating profits for Northrop Grumman nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 42 spots in the Global 500 rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.

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F500-2021-86-Northrop Grumman

<span data-sheets-value="{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Operating profits for this Fortune 500 mainstay nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 10 spots in the rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.&quot;}" data-sheets-userformat="{&quot;2&quot;:12673,&quot;3&quot;:{&quot;1&quot;:0},&quot;10&quot;:2,&quot;11&quot;:4,&quot;15&quot;:&quot;Calibri, Arial&quot;,&quot;16&quot;:12}" data-sheets-textstyleruns="{&quot;1&quot;:0}{&quot;1&quot;:27,&quot;2&quot;:{&quot;6&quot;:1}}{&quot;1&quot;:34}">Operating profits for this Fortune 500 mainstay nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 10 spots in the rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.

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G500-2020-368-Northrop-Grumman

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F500-2020-096-Northrop-Grumman

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Northrop Grumman, founded in 1939, is a global aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The company is structured into four primary segments. The aeronautics systems segment is responsible for the design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of aircraft systems. This division specializes in both manned and unmanned aircraft, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic ISR systems, vertical takeoff and landing tactical ISR systems, strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighters, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. In the defense systems segment, Northrop Grumman focuses on tactical weapons and missile defense solutions. This division also provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems. Their product range includes integrated command and control battle management systems, precision strike weapons, high-speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems, high-performance gun systems, ammunition, and advanced fuzes. Additionally, they offer logistics support, sustainment, operations, modernization, and warfighter training services. The mission systems segment specializes in command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. This division develops and produces technologies including radar systems, electro-optical/infrared and acoustic sensors, electronic warfare systems, advanced communications and network systems, cyber solutions, intelligence processing systems, navigation systems, and maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems. The Space Systems segment focuses on space-related technologies and systems. This includes the development and production of satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads. The division also works on ground systems, missile defense systems and interceptors, launch vehicles and related propulsion systems, and strategic missiles.

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Q4 2024

Northrop Grumman (NOC): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Northrop Grumman

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Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's 4th Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr.

Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's Q4 2024 Conference Call. Before we start, due to technical issues with our provider, we have provided a new dial in information for the analysts, so please use that to dial into the call. Moving on, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2025 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward looking statements pursuant to Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings.

These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially. Today's call will include non GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. In addition, we will refer to a presentation that is posted to our Investor Relations website. On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President and Ken Crews, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy.

Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. At Northrop Grumman, we remain steadfast in our mission to innovate and deliver cutting edge technologies that enhance national security for the U. S. And our allies.

We are harnessing our investments to manufacture at scale the integrated hardware and software solutions that give our customers an advantage. Our strategy, which is based on technology differentiation, has resulted in another year of strong financial performance. We set a new record backlog, including significant new competitive wins and follow on awards. We ended the year with a backlog of approximately $91,500,000,000 and a book to bill ratio at 1.23x, providing a solid foundation for future growth. This was driven in part by a new competitive win on the TACOMO program and an award for the 2nd LRIP lot on B-twenty 1 in the Q4.

Over the past 3 years, our book to bill is 1.15x, reflecting strong ongoing demand for our capabilities across U. S. And international markets. In the Q4, we also booked $900,000,000 for the next iteration of Poland's IBCS system, bringing our international book to bill ratio for the year to 1.4x. Given this strong demand, we now expect our international business to accelerate and grow faster than U.

S. Sales in 2025. Our proven ability to grow backlog and deliver key capabilities to our customers has led to another year of strong top line growth with 2024 sales up more than 4%, building on the momentum over the last 5 years where our top line has grown by 30% organically. Meanwhile, our focus on performance and driving efficiencies in our business is leading to margin expansion, with segment operating margin dollars growing faster than sales. And our free cash flow performance for the year was outstanding, increasing 25% year over year to over $2,600,000,000 at the high end of our guidance range.

As we look forward, our guidance reflects our expectation for continued solid organic growth of 3% to 4%, further segment margin expansion and double digit free cash flow growth again in 2025. This guidance is consistent with the outlook we provided you in October. At Northrop Grumman, our portfolio is well positioned to provide critical deterrence capabilities and differentiating technology that address peer threats and achieve the shared goals of equipping the world's greatest military, reaching new frontiers in space and improving the ways industry and government do business. We look forward to partnering with the Trump administration to accomplish these objectives. We expect Congress to complete FY 'twenty five appropriations this spring, which is assumed in our guidance.

As discussions continue regarding the U. S. Defense budget and potential additional investments, we continue to see strong bipartisan support for national security. And global defense budgets are growing as our allies seek to counter aggressive from aggression from increasingly sophisticated threats. This is driving an increase in demand, particularly in areas such as crude and uncrewed aircraft, advanced weapons and missile defense.

These dynamics give us confidence in our strong international growth outlook. At our core, we are a technology company, and we are well positioned on programs that are essential to the U. S. And our allies' national security. More than just an integrator, we possess technology depth throughout Northrop Grumman, not only in what we produce, but in how we produce it.

This combination allows us to compete and win on priority programs and support our customers' goal of peace through strength. One example is our government trusted design and development of specialized microelectronics for the Department of Defense through our accredited foundries. In our microelectronics center, we build on our path to innovate for the future and continually disrupt our own technology to bring unmatched capabilities to the U. S. Military.

Our terahertz microchip, which operates at 1 trillion cycles per second, is the fastest in the world according to the Guinness World Record. This type of innovation is realized through material science, new hardware design and manufacturing techniques and advanced software development, all capabilities that we have built and refined over time and possess at scale so we can deliver for our customers' most challenging missions. As a result of having this capability, our microelectronics business grew over 20% in 2024. And equally important, it creates competitive advantages for Northrop Grumman by providing mission critical technologies that flow upward through our value chain, are married with Mission I software and then are designed into product areas such as sensors, communications, processing and security solutions. We deliver these game changing capabilities as a prime contractor on platforms we build and also offer them as a trusted supplier to other platform manufacturers.

As technological change accelerates, it becomes more important that we continue to deliver technology discriminators, whether that's tying together capabilities for family of system solutions or developing additional use cases for our missionized AI that enhance our solutions or accelerate decision making. We are leveraging our own hardware and software and also partnering with leading companies in areas such as AI to ensure our customers have the most advanced equipment in the world. Innovation and having the capabilities to meet our customer needs are important, but the ability to scale production and field new systems at speed are core to ultimate mission success. As we've grown our capacity, we've also been implementing advanced manufacturing techniques, automation and digital factories across our company. We are designing, manufacturing and sustaining our next generation systems with digital ecosystems that are improving our agility and efficiency and therefore, lowering our costs and time to field.

These new manufacturing technologies, along with the capacity investments we've made, enable us to rapidly ramp production. We've done this in areas like solid rocket motors, advanced weapons and satellite manufacturing. And these investments also allow us to more seamlessly transition major programs from design to production, like we've done with the B-twenty 1, all of which have been and will continue

to be important drivers of growth for our company.

Next, I'd like to update you on the plans we've previously shared to drive margin expansion. We continue to expect favorable mix to be a driver as we ramp on production programs and grow our international sales over the next several years. Beyond this, we are taking proactive actions to drive efficiencies across the company. These actions include implementation of digital tool sets that reduce process time, automate tasks and maximize output for our technical teams. We're streamlining our organizational structure, optimizing our supply chain spend and reducing costs through improved utilization of our resources and facilities.

We removed over $200,000,000 of costs in the enterprise in 2024 alone. We have a laser focus on performance excellence driven by delivering first time quality and robust risk management processes. Altogether, these cost efficiency initiatives, mix shifts and focus on performance give us confidence we can reduce cost to the taxpayer while also enhancing segment margins as we progress through this decade. This margin expansion, coupled with continued growth in our business and reduced capital investment, are the drivers of our multiyear free cash flow growth outlook. We continue to pursue a balanced capital deployment strategy that supports our customers' requirements and returns cash to shareholders.

Over the past 2 years, we've invested over $3,500,000,000 in CapEx to expand our capacity and implement the advanced manufacturing lines across our company. And we are planning to invest another $1,500,000,000 in 2025. We've also delivered over 100% of free cash flow to shareholders last year. We continue to believe we have the best portfolio that is aligned to our customers' highest priority mission. However, as we always do, we continuously evaluate the portfolio to ensure that we are investing in the businesses that are core to achieving our strategic vision.

This includes accessing any gaps that may emerge over time or businesses that may make sense to exit. With this in mind, we've decided to exit our training services business that is part of Defense Systems segment. Today, we announced that we have signed an agreement to sell the business to Serco Inc. For $327,000,000 and we forecast this transaction to close towards the middle of the year. This is an important capability for our customers, and we expect the team to continue to deliver world class training services under new leadership, allowing us to focus on our core business.

2024 was marked by strong program execution, compelling financial performance, implementation of operational improvements and impactful strategic initiatives that have positioned us for long term success. Our ability to capitalize on opportunities and deliver exceptional results is a direct testament to the hard work and dedication of every member of our company. Our strategic priorities remain focused on fostering innovation, enhancing operational excellence and expanding our impact for our customers. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Ken to discuss our Q4 and full year financial results as well as our 2025 guidance. Ken?

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. As Kathy outlined, we delivered another strong year of financial performance in 2024, delivering on or exceeding the financial commitments that we communicated a year ago. This sustained performance is a reflection of our strategic positioning, continued focus on operational excellence and disciplined approach to financial management. We continue to see robust and enduring demand for our capabilities in both domestic and international markets. Reflecting this demand, we booked $17,300,000,000 in new awards in the Q4 and approximately $51,000,000,000 for the full year.

This led to a record backlog of over $91,000,000,000 an increase of 9% compared to last year, positioning the company for continued growth. Moving to top line, we generated sales of $10,700,000,000 in quarter 4 and $41,000,000,000 for the year. 2024 sales increased by 4.4% with growth across 3 of our 4 businesses. Transitioning to segment performance. NGAS grew to $12,000,000,000 in 2024, an increase of 12% compared to the prior year.

Sales volume increased throughout the portfolio and was driven by the production ramp on B-twenty one and from higher activity on the F-thirty five program. Sales were also higher on autonomous programs such as Triton and Global Hawk and we saw higher volume on E2 sustainment and modernization work. DS posted sales growth of 3%, driven by higher sales on Sentinel, advanced weapons and ammunition programs, partially offset by lower volume due to the completion of an international training program. Mission Systems sales increased by 5%, led by higher volume on advanced and microelectronics and technology programs. And in the Space segment, 2024 sales were down modestly as expected compared to the prior year due to the wind down of a restrictive program in the NGI.

As we previously stated, the remaining Space portfolio grew at mid single digits in 2024, driven by higher sales on Space Development Agency satellite programs and numerous other programs. Turning to the bottom line. 2024 segment operating income was over $4,500,000,000 and our segment operating margin rate expanded to 11.1%. Margins improved due to the proactive steps we've taken to further enhance performance and drive efficiencies across our business, as Kathy described earlier in the call. This performance led to an increase in net favorable earnings adjustments totaling $350,000,000 for the year.

Strong segment performance was the driver for higher year over year earnings per share as shown on slide 6 in our earnings deck. 2024 mark to market adjusted EPS was $26.08 and exceeded the high end of our guidance range provided in October. Higher net pension income and a lower share count also provided an uplift. Moving to cash. We had an excellent quarter of cash generation in Q4 as is our historical pattern.

Our full year operating cash flow was $4,400,000,000 and we invested roughly $1,800,000,000 in capital expenditures. This resulted in over $2,600,000,000 in 20.24 free cash flow, near the high end of our guidance range and up a notable 25% compared to 2023. Next, I would like to provide an update on our pension results and multiyear estimates. Asset returns in 2024 were 4.7%, below our long term expected rate of return of 7.5%. Meanwhile, the FAS discount rate increased by roughly 60 basis points to 5.73%, more than offsetting the impact from lower asset returns.

The net result, along with updated census data, is a 2024 mark to market after tax benefit of $332,000,000 or $2.26 a share. Looking forward, these results translate to slightly higher expected CAS recoveries and a reduced FAS pension benefit lowering overall net pension income compared to the prior outlook. Importantly, our pension plans remain fully funded and we continue to project minimal cash pension contributions over the next several years. Before covering our 2025 guidance, I'll highlight recent changes to our portfolio. In addition to the upcoming divestiture of the training services business, which has an annual run rate of $300,000,000 in sales, the Strike and Surveillance Aircraft Services business unit has been realigned from Defense Systems to Aeronautics Systems, effective January 1st this year.

This business provides a variety of support and sustainment activities, primarily on aircraft programs in our AS portfolio. This now aligns the full product life cycles of Northrop Grumman aircraft, allowing for more seamless development and sustainment of next generation aircraft. These actions coupled with the completion of an international training program create a portfolio at DS that is now centered around strategic deterrents, advanced weapons and missile defense. 4th quarter 2024 results have been reported in the prior organization structure and we've provided a few tables in our earnings release and slide deck that recast sales and margins for current and historical periods. Moving forward, we'll report Q1 2025 results and beyond in the new structure and our 2025 segment guidance also reflects the new structure inclusive of the divestiture.

Turning to 2025. Our segment guidance is included on Slide 8 in our earnings deck. Aeronautics sales are expected to be in the low $13,000,000,000 representing mid single digit growth. This includes nearly $400,000,000 of sales from the realignment previously mentioned. Aeronautics margins are expected in the mid to high 9% range and reflect higher sales on the LRIP phase of B21.

2025 DS sales are projected in the low $8,000,000,000 We expect DS to be our fastest growing business in 2025, with double digit organic sales growth driven by higher sales on Sentinel, IBCS and our diverse weapons portfolio. Segment operating margin at DS is expected to grow faster than sales with an OM rate of mid to high 9%. Sales at Mission Systems are projected to grow mid single digits again in 2025 with sales reaching approximately 12,000,000,000 dollars and operating margins are expected to expand approximately 50 basis points to mid-fourteen percent as productivity initiatives continue to drive improved performance. We expect sales in the Space segment of roughly $11,000,000,000 reflecting a year over year headwind of $900,000,000 from the wind down of our work on the restricted space and NGI programs. And we expect an OM rate of high 10% at Space ahead of where we ended 2024.

At the company level, our 2025 guidance is consistent with the outlook we provided on our Q3 call. Full year sales are expected to grow 3% to 4% on an organic basis with 1st quarter sales and margins comparable to Q1 of last year. Keep in mind, the Q1 year over year company sales growth will be flat due to the program wind downs in space, with the majority of the year over year growth occurring in the second half of the year. Full year segment margins are projected to expand roughly 10 basis points, with margins also ramping throughout the year. This year over year expansion is driven by the continuation of our efficiency and productivity initiatives as well as international growth.

Our guidance for mark to market adjusted EPS is $28.05 at the midpoint, up more than 7% year over year. Next, I want to take a moment to highlight several contributing factors to this outlook. First, the total FASCAS pension adjustment is projected at $800,000,000 down $60,000,000 compared to our prior outlook in Q3. 2nd, we are projecting corporate unallocated expenses of $280,000,000 this year, up compared to our 2024 results and reflective of a normalized level of recurring expenses. The primary drivers of the reduced 2024 expense were state tax and environmental related benefits that are not expected to recur in 2025.

3rd, we expect a pre tax gain from the training service divestiture of $205,000,000 which will also flow through corporate unallocated. Our 2025 estimated tax rate is projected at lowtomid17 percent and we are reaffirming our 2025 free cash flow guidance range of greater than 15% growth at the midpoint. Speaking of cash, due to our strong performance in 2024, we ended the year with a cash balance of nearly 4,400,000,000 dollars In early January, we repaid $1,500,000,000 of notes that matured. This year, our investments in R and D and CapEx are projected at over $2,500,000,000 and we expect to return 100 percent of our free cash flow to investors. As we look ahead, there are many opportunities in front of us.

The foundation we have built sets the stage for continued growth and value creation. Our investments in advanced technologies, forward thinking strategies and disciplined financial management ensure we are well prepared to capitalize on emerging opportunities. I'm confident that together we will continue to deliver outstanding results for all of our stakeholders. With that, let's open the call to questions.

you. Our first question comes from Ronald Epstein with Bank of America. You may proceed.

Hey, good morning. So there's been a lot of talk lately about an Iron Dome. Given the kind of work that you guys do both in space and in missile protection and so on and so forth, missile defense. Can you give us any thoughts on how you're thinking about Iron Dome?

Yes. Thanks, Ron. So we welcome the urgency that the Trump administration is placing on protecting the homeland from escalating global missile threats. We think it is very timely. And as you've noted, we do offer end to end integrated air and missile defense capabilities.

Just a few examples that might be relevant to a U. S. Iron Dome include capabilities that can disrupt missile launch. So this is capability left of launch. We also have satellite based missile detection and tracking.

And we have interceptors for hypersonic weapons under development. And this, of course, is all in addition to the air and missile defense command and control systems that we build. So when you think about an architecture to defend the U. S, particularly with the range that these missiles will need and the advanced threats that are emerging with hypersonic weapons, we think we're very well positioned to support that architecture.

Got it. Got it. And then maybe just one quick follow on. When we think about growth in 2025, how much of a contributor is B21 and GBSD?

Both will contribute to growth in 2025. Both are more modest than the growth rates that percent. Both are more modest than the growth rates that they've experienced in the past just because of the place that they are in their life cycle. And so we do continue to expect those to be less than 10% of sales in the company, but continuing to gradually increase from 2024 into 2025.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Duchaw with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.

elect to accelerate production on B-twenty 1, would the incremental units that get accelerated have similar unit pricing as the existing aircraft in those lots? Or would that be more of an open negotiation for any accelerated units?

We would work with the Air Force to look at when those units would come into the contract. And obviously, we are accumulating more and more actual performance to help inform discussions with them about the right pricing. So it would be premature for me to comment on where we expect that to land, but it would be a discussion.

Okay. And then Ken, the guide implies some pretty solid margin expansion at Mission Systems. Maybe you could talk a little bit through the specific drivers that are supporting that margin expansion? Thank you.

Sure. Thanks for the questions, Scott. And as you've mentioned, when we looked into in 2025, the expansion of margin in Mission Systems is about 50 basis points. Really proud of the Mission Systems team, particularly if you look at 2024, we had as we scaled the business, initial headwinds in Q2. And if you look at their performance since Q2, it's grown and done they have done exceptionally well, ending the year with a 14.9% booking rate in quarter 4.

As we look forward, we're continuing to see the performance improvements driven by multiple factors. It's continuing to drive cost out of the business, leveraging the improvements that we made in our factories. As we progress and the business has scaled, we have made sure that we've developed our team in terms of being able to operate in a more effective and efficient manner as we produce those products. And then, obviously, the various digital technologies and the focus on cost reductions. And if you look at Mission Systems, they have focused on reduced costs and even as a percentage of G and A, we're seeing it continuously reduce.

And so those are some of the primary drivers that give us confidence in terms of their ability to expand margins in 2025.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. You may proceed.

Good morning and thank you. Happy, I think you called out in your script $900,000,000 of headwind from NGI and classified when it comes to space, implies rest of the business is growing 2%. How are you thinking about just growth from LEO, GEO, NASA programs? And how as a follow-up to that, when does the segment return to margin expansion or growth?

So in terms of margin expansion, I'll take your second question first with space is, as you've seen year over year significant improvements when we think about earnings adjustments from what we saw in 2023 to 2024 and that's focused on the performance elements and then driving efficiencies and reduced costs. And we continue to expect that focus and improvements from those efficiency initiatives. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks is, we do expect space to continue to expand margins and deliver in 2025 above what they delivered in 2024 at the high 10% range. And in terms of what's driving space overall growth is, we do have I just want to clarify the $1,500,000,000 of 20.25 sales That became a headwind with about $600,000,000 in 2024 with $900,000,000 in 2025. That $900,000,000 is primarily focused on the first half of the year and we expect space to contribute to growth or return to growth towards the end of 2025 and then continue that expansion into 2026.

The primary drivers of driving the growth overall is strategic comms, restricted space, the continued expansion of propulsion systems is what's driving that growth.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Douglas Arnett with Bernstein. You may proceed.

Very good. Thank you. Good morning. On defense systems, you've made a number of changes there. Kathy, could you describe what the what we should think of as defense systems sort of the theme there?

In other words, it's much different than it was just a year ago. What are you trying to do with that segment?

Yes. So we have transitioned that segment over the course of the last year with the divestiture of training services and the movement of the sustainment portfolio into our AS business. Defense Systems now is largely a strategic missiles, tactical weapons and command and control business. And so that aligns their customer focus. More simply, It also creates synergy across those three businesses.

You would expect it's the life cycle of missile defense, if you will. And so we're excited about that. But I also will say this synergy with AS to receive that sustainment business, which is largely work on either existing or soon to be fielded AS systems allows us to complete that lifecycle within the AS business looking at sustained systems and what's required to modernize them. So we think this is beneficial to both segments in terms of the movements that we've made.

And then related to that, Rocket Motors has been a big issue kind of industry wide. Clearly, you have your own capability there. How do you see the Rocket Motor portion of that business, both in terms of if there's any bottleneck or any constraints for what you're trying to do, but also externally the ability to grow sales there?

So our solid Rocket Motor business sitting inside of Defense Systems is mostly focused on tactical weapons, and we have been growing that capacity and continue to execute funding to add to the capacity in the late 'twenty six time frame. We believe that the demand will be there to consume all of that capacity and probably continue to require more over time, but we are taking this in incremental steps to make sure that we don't get out ahead of capacity. And it's a whole variety of systems that we're supporting. It's often talked about as driven by stockpile replenishment of weapons that are being expended in regional conflicts, but it's also supporting new weapons that will be fielded to go into production in the later part of this decade. And so that business is very diverse in terms of its pipeline and channels to market.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. You may proceed.

Good morning. Kathy, in this administration and also some of the folks around it have been pretty vocal about looking to I'm sure you've gotten questions over the years about defense startups and commercial technology. It seems like there is an effort in this administration to kind of accelerate both tapping into commercial technology and tapping into the capital that's in the commercial world. I guess, how does that make you think about anything related to the portfolio and what should be in it, what shouldn't be in it, where the focus should be, Northrop's own capital deployment, any of those kind of big picture issues?

Yes. Look, first of all, we embrace new entrants into the space. We often, and in this case, are teaming with companies that bring new ideas or new technology. It does not cause me to question our strategy and technology differentiation, but it certainly does sharpen our focus on where we should invest relative to the competitive landscape. And as I think about how this might evolve over time, the defense landscape is continuing to grow both domestically and internationally.

We are advancing into new technology areas, and I think there's room for all of us to work together to provide the U. S. And our allies what they need.

Great, great. Thanks. And then just as a follow-up, you talked about international growing faster this year. And given the mix with space, that makes a lot of sense. When we look out further, I guess, international had been running about $5,000,000,000 of sales.

When you think longer term, is there either a dollar number or a percentage that you think about like later on in the decade?

Yes. Well, this year, we're expecting growth to accelerate, as I said, and we expect double digit growth this year. And we see a path for that continuing for multiple years based on the backlog we've built. I noted that we had a 1.4 times book to bill in international in 2024, and we have a strong pipeline emerging across a wide variety of products, IBCS, E-2D, Triton, just to name a few. And so as those mature in the pipeline, turn into awards and backlog, we could see the path to continue to grow international above U.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Akers with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for the question.

I wanted to ask about Sentinel and just if you've heard anything new around the program review there and as you think of kind of the long term outlook. Is there you said there's risk to the downside if that program sort of gets shifted out or is there risk to the upside sort of doesn't or do you think it's sort of well calibrated?

Well, let me directly answer your question first, and then I'll provide a little more context. We think that it's well calibrated in the outlook that we have provided. You'll recall last year, we made some adjustments in both awards and booking rates that indicated our best estimate of the profile of how that program will be executed even through the restructure and that indeed is still what we believe today. We are working with the government on the restructure, but in the meantime, we are performing and meeting important milestones on the EMD contract. The government has said that they project the restructure to take 18 to 24 months, so we are still very much in that window.

And we are even though they have paused work on some small infrastructure efforts in the Command and Launch segment, that is reflected in what we have shared with you. We currently expect our 2025 Sentinel revenue to be in the mid single digit percentage of total revenue, as I said, and continuing to grow from 'twenty four into 2025.

Yes. Okay. And then I guess the free cash flow outlook on Slide 11, if I look at the years, I mean, 2025 much bigger step up than 2022, 2026, 2027. I know the pension starts to be kind of less of a tailwind after this year, but just curious if there are any other kind of moving pieces that kind of the growth slows down after 2025?

Yes. So what you're seeing in 2025 is a few things. It's the continued management and robust management of our balance sheet and the working capital as well as the profitable growth of the business and converting those margins to cash quickly. To your point, we also see tailwinds near term from CAS, but also are more normalized level of investments in capital expenditures. And then when you move past 2025 into 2026 and beyond, we have it's really driven by the overall growth of the business and continuing to manage our working capital, which I consider best in class.

We're in the low single digits when you think about adjusted working capital as a percentage of sales. And so it's really making sure that we continue to stay diligent managing the balance sheet and then as we grow the business converting those margins to cash quickly, which is why it more normalizes with the overall growth rate of the business.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gavin Parsons with UBS. You may proceed.

Aeronautics margin pressure not too much year over year in 2025 given the B-twenty one ramp. I mean, is there any change in the dilution consideration there? Or is that just kind of being offset by better performance in the core Aeronautics segment?

So you've highlighted in 2024 extremely proud of the team and what they've been able to accomplish even as B-twenty one has continued to ramp, driving efficiencies and implementing performance improvement initiatives across the portfolio. And we've been able to maintain earlier in the quarter early 1st 3 quarters double digit returns with quarter 4 slightly diluted just based on timings of mix. As we look to 2025 is you hit it as we're continuing to expand on B21, but the team has opportunities given those efficiencies to continue to drive performance improvements and allow us to maintain that mid to high 9% level of returns.

Okay, great. How big is the microelectronics business?

The microelectronics center is a business that feeds the rest of the portfolio, as I discussed. So it contains our foundries and our work in developing chips, but we actually sell most of that embedded in systems in other parts of our company or sell them directly to external entities. So the vast majority shows up in revenue in our segments, and it's largely our Space business and our Mission Systems business where that revenue resides. It's a significant portion of both of those businesses that have value creation starting in the microelectronics center.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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