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<span data-sheets-value="{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Operating profits for this Fortune 500 mainstay nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 10 spots in the rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.&quot;}" data-sheets-userformat="{&quot;2&quot;:12673,&quot;3&quot;:{&quot;1&quot;:0},&quot;10&quot;:2,&quot;11&quot;:4,&quot;15&quot;:&quot;Calibri, Arial&quot;,&quot;16&quot;:12}" data-sheets-textstyleruns="{&quot;1&quot;:0}{&quot;1&quot;:27,&quot;2&quot;:{&quot;6&quot;:1}}{&quot;1&quot;:34}">Operating profits for Northrop Grumman nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 42 spots in the Global 500 rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.

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F500-2021-86-Northrop Grumman

<span data-sheets-value="{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;Operating profits for this Fortune 500 mainstay nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 10 spots in the rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.&quot;}" data-sheets-userformat="{&quot;2&quot;:12673,&quot;3&quot;:{&quot;1&quot;:0},&quot;10&quot;:2,&quot;11&quot;:4,&quot;15&quot;:&quot;Calibri, Arial&quot;,&quot;16&quot;:12}" data-sheets-textstyleruns="{&quot;1&quot;:0}{&quot;1&quot;:27,&quot;2&quot;:{&quot;6&quot;:1}}{&quot;1&quot;:34}">Operating profits for this Fortune 500 mainstay nudged higher as the aerospace and defense giant pulled in $53 billion in new business contracts last year. The crowning achievement came from its Space Systems unit, which landed a $13.3 billion missile-systems deal from the U.S. Air Force. Overall, sales jumped 9% year on year, enabling Northrop Grumman to leap 10 spots in the rankings. In January 2021, the company’s board authorized a new plan to buy back $3 billion in shares. The stock has been on a tear since then, far outperforming the S&amp;P 500.

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G500-2020-368-Northrop-Grumman

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F500-2020-096-Northrop-Grumman

Northrop vaults into the Fortune 100 this year, up 12 spots from last year, as it continues—or perhaps caps—a decade-long turnaround. Revenue grew a solid 12.4%, though profits slumped more than 30%, in part due to operational challenges. Northrop faced a threat in 2019 when rival Boeing dropped out of the competition for an $85 billion missile contract, and demanded that regulators intervene over Northrop’s 2018 purchase of rocket engine maker Orbital ATK. The Federal Trade Commission started an inquiry, but no further action followed. That set up a game-changing 2020 surprise: With Boeing out of the picture for the missile contract and Northrop the de facto winner, the Air Force said that it may award Northrop the deal ahead of schedule.

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Wal-Mart stayed on top as its sales crept closer to half-a-trillion dollars. Apple moved into the top five. And UnitedHealth Group continued its steady climb. 

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Northrop Grumman, founded in 1939, is a global aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The company is structured into four primary segments. The aeronautics systems segment is responsible for the design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of aircraft systems. This division specializes in both manned and unmanned aircraft, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic ISR systems, vertical takeoff and landing tactical ISR systems, strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighters, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. In the defense systems segment, Northrop Grumman focuses on tactical weapons and missile defense solutions. This division also provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems. Their product range includes integrated command and control battle management systems, precision strike weapons, high-speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems, high-performance gun systems, ammunition, and advanced fuzes. Additionally, they offer logistics support, sustainment, operations, modernization, and warfighter training services. The mission systems segment specializes in command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. This division develops and produces technologies including radar systems, electro-optical/infrared and acoustic sensors, electronic warfare systems, advanced communications and network systems, cyber solutions, intelligence processing systems, navigation systems, and maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems. The Space Systems segment focuses on space-related technologies and systems. This includes the development and production of satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads. The division also works on ground systems, missile defense systems and interceptors, launch vehicles and related propulsion systems, and strategic missiles.

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Northrop Grumman (NOC): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Northrop Grumman

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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Northrop Grumman's third quarter 2025 conference call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Bella, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Todd Ernst, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

Thanks, Bella, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's third quarter 2025 conference call. Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2025 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially. Today's call will include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. In addition, we will refer to a presentation that is posted to our Investor Relations website. On the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President, and Ken Crews, our CFO.

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Disciplined execution of our business strategy has continued to position us well as global defense demand grows and our customers transform the way they acquire capability. We continue to prioritize providing technology leadership to our customers through innovation in both the way we do business and the capabilities we deliver. In doing so, we are building a strong backlog of future business. We are also performing well on our current programs, building the capacity for sustainable growth, and transforming our operations by embracing digital technologies to deliver with speed, quality, and affordability. The Northrop Grumman team delivered another strong quarter of performance amidst a dynamic global environment. We achieved mid-single-digit growth, expanded our segment operating margins, and grew free cash flow year-over-year. These results are aligned to our long-term financial outlook.

The investments we have been making in capacity and capability over the last six years enable us to deliver with urgency against our customers' highest priorities. In fact, we achieved an exceptionally strong book-to-bill of 1.17 in the quarter. Our organic growth rate was 5% year-over-year, and our international growth rate was 32%. It is also worth noting that apart from our space segment, where we continue to have a challenging compare related to the wind-down of two large programs, revenue growth was approximately 9%. Despite strong growth in the quarter, we are revising our full-year revenue guidance down due to delayed timing, uncertain awards, and programs. In addition, the team delivered another outstanding quarter of operating performance. Segment operating margin increased to 12.3% in Q3, which drove a 10% year-over-year increase in earnings per share.

We also increased our free cash flow by 72% year-over-year, and are on track to meet our full-year guidance. In the quarter, we made significant strides across multiple programs to position our company for the future. Last month, the second B-21 Raider aircraft entered flight test, another significant milestone for the program as we continue to gain momentum. This starts a new phase of the test program, transitioning from general flight performance evaluation to integrating weapons and mission systems. Our testing campaign also involves multiple B-21 aircraft undergoing ground tests prior to flying, which is validating performance and minimizing risk. With the progress we've made, we remain on track to receive the LRIP LOT 3 and LOT 5 advanced procurement awards later this year. We continue discussions with the Air Force on the framework for an agreement to accelerate the B-21 production rate.

If an agreement is reached, as previously disclosed, we expect to deploy additional investment to achieve the increased rate with the opportunity to earn improved returns. We've also made important progress on missile defense programs that can support emerging requirements. In the quarter, we received a multi-billion dollar extension on the Ground-based Midcourse Defense weapon systems contract. This contract award extends our period of performance through 2030 to provide new GMD capabilities. GWS is an integrated system designed to protect the U.S. from long-range ballistic missile threats. System enhancements include integrating the next-generation interceptor into the GMD system, updating launch equipment, and advancing the communication capabilities between the GWS and the interceptor fleet. In addition, IBCS continues to be an effective and ready-now solution to meet the global air and missile defense mission. In this quarter, IBCS successfully completed live-fire testing events for both Poland and the U.S.

Army customers, continuing its record of strong performance in operational tests. With these latest events, IBCS is now 32 for 32 in successful flight tests. We are also advancing the capability to introduce cloud and mobile technologies into IBCS, as well as enhanced artificial intelligence. We have demonstrated our ability to rapidly adapt to changing mission requirements, adding new operations capabilities through software in a matter of hours to effectively defeat evolving threats. I have previously outlined the investments we've made in solid rocket motor capacity and capabilities over the last several years. Leveraging those investments in the quarter, our GEM 63XL rocket boosters played a crucial role in powering a ULA Vulcan rocket that delivered the third batch of Amazon Kuiper satellites to orbit. With additional launches in backlog, the Kuiper program is poised to be a key growth driver for the company going forward.

Additionally, we've self-funded investments in tactical solid rocket motor capabilities that have enabled us to pursue and win second-source opportunities. Recently, we were selected by the Navy as the second supplier for the SM-6 missile. This is one of several initiatives, including the 21-inch motor award that we discussed on our last call, that we've undertaken to enhance our SRM competitiveness and broaden our market presence. There are many notable accomplishments from the quarter. Let me now take a step back for a moment and talk about the transformation that is underway in the Department of Defense and how they acquire capability and what they seek from an industry partner like Northrop Grumman. I noted earlier that we are innovating both in the capabilities we deliver and the ways we work. We are bringing proposals forward to accelerate our programs, embrace new technologies, and partner more effectively.

We also continue to invest in American factories and workers where we design and build the most advanced systems and technologies in support of our nation's warfighters. Over the past two years, we've allocated over 4% of our sales towards capital expenditures, well above industry averages. This investment is essential in providing the capacity to meet demand for next-generation aircraft capabilities, ramping up production in munitions and propulsion, laying the foundation for significant growth in microelectronics, and expanding production facilities to deliver hundreds of satellites and aircraft. We have also invested over $2 billion in the infrastructure and development of our enterprise-wide digital ecosystem that continues to yield phenomenal results as we test and prove that digital models have extremely high correlation with the physical products we are delivering. This is game-changing for the way we design, build, and produce our products.

It opens paths for more affordable solutions for our customers and more predictable and improved returns for our shareholders. As we look even further over the horizon to five or ten years into the future and beyond, our team of world-class engineers is undertaking research and development and pushing technology boundaries today that will support our competitiveness tomorrow. Over the past two years, we've invested over $2.1 billion in IRAD to maintain our technology leadership and for continuous innovation to disrupt the market and ourselves with the objective of maintaining long-term sustainable advantage for our warfighters and policymakers.

As I mentioned earlier, we are exploring creative ways to bring solutions to market faster and focusing on priority areas such as the development and fielding of multifunction sensors, new and innovative ways to incorporate AI into our solutions, and developing and fielding new smarter weapon systems that bring unmatched superiority on the battlefield, to name just a few. The themes we are seeing in the U.S. are also true in the international market. Our allies are committed to modernizing their armed forces and investing in deterrent capabilities. The current geopolitical environment has increased the urgency for them to act now. This is being reflected in a significant increase in defense spending that is expected to carry well into the next decade.

Allied nations are prioritizing investments in air and missile defense, ground-based radars, airborne ISR, and other advanced weapon systems to enhance their ability to deter and defend against conflict. This growing demand presents substantial opportunities for our company, and we are well-positioned to deliver solutions that meet the evolving needs of our customers worldwide. These factors contributed to our international sales growing 20% year to date. Before I turn to 2026, let me address the U.S. government shutdown. It is unclear how long it might persist, but we are hopeful it will be resolved in the near term. Assuming it is, we do not anticipate any significant impact on our financial results. In the meantime, we remain focused on executing our programs and delivering on our commitments.

Looking longer term, there continues to be strong bipartisan support for national security priorities with robust levels of investment provided through reconciliation and being considered for FY 2026 appropriations. We believe this continued commitment to funding will result in a long tail of demand as resources are allocated and invested into the industrial base. Our confidence in these underlying trends reaffirms our outlook and positions us well for sustained growth. As we look ahead to the new year, I'd like to take a moment to provide you with some color on how we're thinking about 2026. We expect mid-single-digit organic sales growth supported by growth in all four of our segments. This top-line growth will, in turn, enable us to also grow segment operating income. We expect a segment OM rate in the low to mid 11% range.

Lastly, as we look at cash, we are reaffirming our existing outlook range for 2026 free cash flow of $3.1 billion-$3.5 billion. I'd note that these estimates are not inclusive of a potential win on FPXX or an acceleration of the B-21 production rate. As usual, we plan to provide formal guidance during our Q4 earnings call in January. In summary, I'd like to emphasize our unwavering commitment to our technology-focused business strategy, which continues to drive our profitable growth. We're experiencing an unprecedented demand environment, and our capital deployment strategy is enabling us to meet this demand and prepare us for opportunities in the future. As we move forward, our primary focus remains disciplined execution of our strategy and creating lasting value for both our customers and our shareholders. Now, let me hand it over to Ken to provide more detail on the quarter's financial results.

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. As you just heard from Kathy, we delivered another strong quarter of financial performance. Let's begin on slide 4, which shows our top-line results for the quarter. Third quarter sales were $10.4 billion, up 4% compared to the prior year and up 5% on an organic basis. We continue to expect further acceleration in Q4 with all segments returning to growth, both sequentially and on a year-over-year comparison. Aeronautics generated third quarter sales of $3.1 billion, up 6% compared to the prior year. Higher sales were driven by the ramp on Tacomo and higher volume on F-35 program, partially offset by lower sales on F/A-18 as the program winds down. Sales at DS were exceptionally strong in Q3, accelerating to nearly $2.1 billion. Sales were higher across the DS portfolio, including on ammunition and weapons programs, IBCS, and Sentinel.

In total, DS sales grew by 14% compared to Q3 of last year and by 19% organically. Mission systems continue to deliver unmatched technological innovation at a rapid rate. This is reflected by further growth on restricted microelectronic programs in Q3, which led the segment to another quarter of double-digit sales growth. Sales were also higher in marine systems and on international programs, building on the strong momentum from the first half of the year. At space systems, Q3 sales grew on a sequential basis again this quarter, rising to $2.7 billion. On a year-over-year basis, sales were down mid-single digits as expected, and we have now nearly lapped the top-line headwinds we've been experiencing on two programs for the past 18 months. Looking forward, we believe that space is poised to return to growth, given our positioning and opportunities in this arena.

Moving to the bottom line on slide five, operational performance was outstanding again in quarter three. Segment operating income increased by 11% year-over-year, and our segment operating margin rate increased 80 basis points to 12.3%. AS operating income dollars were relatively flat compared to a year ago, and the operating margin rate was 9.7%. This was driven by strong operating performance on mature production programs, as well as lower net profitability adjustments. As we do every quarter, we reviewed our estimate to complete the LRIP phase of the B-21 program and made no significant changes to the previously recognized loss. However, we experienced higher than expected costs to produce the EMD flight test aircraft, which increased our estimate to manufacture the LRIP units.

This increase was largely offset by a reduction in our expected loss on remaining LRIP lots due to a contract restructure that occurred during the quarter. Turning to DS, quarter three margins improved to 11.4%, driven by strong operational performance and higher net favorable EAC adjustments. While the Q2 margin outperformance was driven by Sentinel, this quarter's strength was broad-based with higher margin rates in each of the business areas. Mission systems operating income increased 32%, and their Q3 segment OM rate increased nearly 300 basis points to 16.7%. This performance was enabled by intentional steps this team has taken to drive efficiencies, mitigate risk, and increase factory utilization, which drove a $68 million favorable EAC adjustment in the restricted advanced microelectronics portfolio. Space systems also had a solid quarter of operational performance, generating an operating margin rate of 11%.

The strong bottom line results drove higher earnings per share as shown on slide 6. Third quarter diluted earnings per share were $7.67, an increase of 10% compared to Q3 of 2024. In addition to strong segment results, marked-to-market gains on marketable securities increased by $0.35 compared to Q3 of last year. These benefits, along with higher net pension income, were partially offset by higher corporate unallocated expenses and a higher federal tax rate, as previously disclosed. As we reflect on our performance today and expectations for Q4, we have a few updates to our company-level guidance as shown on slide 7. For sales, we are adjusting our outlook to a range of $41.7 billion-$41.9 billion, reflecting approximately 8% Q4 growth at the midpoint. We continue to expect a ramp in Q4 sales in all four segments, but at a slightly lower rate compared to our prior expectations.

Importantly, we are maintaining our segment operating income dollar guidance range despite the lower sales volume. This results in a segment OM rate that is roughly 10 basis points higher than our prior guidance at the midpoint and is a testament to the team's continued focus on discipline program execution and driving efficiencies throughout the business. Moving to earnings per share, we are increasing our guidance by $0.65, now to a range of $25.65-$26.05. The increase is driven by several factors. First, we are lowering our expectations for other corporate unallocated expenses to $250 million, a reduction of $30 million driven by lower unallowable costs. Secondly, we have slight revisions to our expectations for pension income and the effective tax rate, each providing a modest boost to EPS. As I mentioned, we experienced a return on marketable securities in the quarter, which totaled roughly $80 million.

Given market volatility, we have not assumed the entire Q3 gain in our full-year guidance expectations. Rounding out our company-level guidance is cash flow. We are reaffirming our free cash flow expectations of $3.05 billion-$3.35 billion. Third quarter free cash flow of $1.3 billion was well ahead of the past few years, and we continue to expect the largest quarter of cash generation in the fourth quarter, consistent with our seasonal pattern. In addition, the unique factors driving year-end cash, as outlined during the Q2 call, remain intact, including lower Q4 cash tax payments, higher milestone payments, and inventory liquidations at AS. For the year, our guidance represents 22% annual free cash flow growth at the midpoint, making a third consecutive year free cash flow growth greater than 20%.

Turning to segment-level guidance on slide eight, we are reaffirming our top-line guidance for DS and space as they performed in line with our expectations in Q3, and we have not changed our view on their sales ramp in Q4. For aeronautics, we are lowering top-line guidance to the high $12 billion range. As we outlined on our Q2 earnings call, the second half ramp at AS is based on higher B-21 volume, ramp on new program wins, including Tacomo, and normal production volume that is seasonally weighted towards the end of the year. While all these factors remain intact, we are projecting a modestly lower sales level due to delayed timing on certain programs. In addition, we are increasing our expectations for intercompany sales, driven by higher activity on restricted programs throughout the portfolio.

These are partially offset by an increase to our sales guidance expectations at MS, based on the strength of their year-to-date results and expectations for continued growth in Q4. As a result, we now expect MS sales in the mid $12 billion range. With respect to segment operating margin rates, we have one update this quarter related to DS. As I mentioned, they delivered another strong quarter of operational performance, and as a result, we are increasing the OM rate expectation to the high 10% range. Before concluding my prepared remarks, I wanted to build on Kathy's comments regarding our 2026 outlook. First, sales growth next year is expected to be more balanced across each of the segments, with each contributing to growth.

Secondly, operating income is expected to grow compared to 2025, and we don't anticipate a repeat of the large EAC adjustments we experienced this year on B-21, Sentinel, and microelectronics. Adjusting for these items, our outlook for low to mid 11% margins would represent an increase compared to 2025. I'd also like to share our latest projections for 2026 net pension income based on current market conditions. As we typically do this time of year, we've included a 2026 pension income sensitivity grid on slide 10. Year to date through September, asset returns were just north of 9%, slightly better than our initial expectations, and discount rates were down 25 basis points. This combination would result in a modest increase to 2026 net pension income compared to our prior projections, depending on where we end the year.

Importantly, our pension plans remain fully funded, and we continue to project minimal cash contributions over the next several years. In conclusion, we believe we are well-positioned for a broad range of new opportunities. We remain focused on growing our business, delivering strong operational performance, and generating cash flows that allow us to execute our business strategy. With that, let's open the call for Q&A.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We do request for today's session that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Kathy, Ken, for the FPXX and the B-21 acceleration, can you provide more color on what that could mean for your 2026 outlook and what's included?

Kristine, as I noted in my comments, we at this point have not included either in our 2026 outlook. FPXX clearly would come with increased revenue from what we have provided in that outlook. We expect that it would be somewhat dilutive to overall company earnings just because it would be development revenue, which tends to be lower margin than our overall, but it is a costless program, so we expect reasonable returns if we were to win that program. It would require some investment, so the CapEx we would determine based on a profile to build out and prepare for execution. Over the long run, we expect if we were to win that program that it would be accretive to the company, and we very much look forward to the opportunity. On B-21 ramp, similar circumstances, we have not included that in our outlook.

It would be upside to revenue. It would increase our amount of sales, which in the early days, as you know, on production are at the zero margin. We would expect to need to invest in that ramp through CapEx. Again, over the long term, as we've said before, we would expect to have increased returns to offset the cost of that additional investment. We would update our guidance if and when we have clarity on either of those opportunities.

Great, super helpful. For a follow-up, can I ask something about the supply chain? Rare earths continue to be a watch item for the industry. Can you talk a little bit more about your sourcing strategy, how to mitigate supply chain risks, and if there are any watch items that could potentially affect your 2026 outlook?

Yes. Fortunately, our team has the two foundries in the United States where we design, produce, and package microelectronics. Our dependency there on rare earths has been mitigated by looking through our supply chain and getting well ahead of our sources of supply to ensure that we can produce those electronics. We are very pleased that the U.S. government is actively working to set up additional sources of supply, including in the U.S., and working partnerships with our allies for them to also invest in these capabilities in their country. This will just create more sources for us to draw upon and make the U.S. more competitive in being able to provide these microelectronics for national security purposes into the future.

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Hey, Kathy, can you maybe pull back the curtain a little bit more on B-21? I mean, how is it going with a potential increase in the build rate on that aircraft and so on and so forth? Because if that were to play out, it is material for you guys.

Yes. We are in active discussions with the customer that would enable that acceleration of production rate. As I noted in our Q2 call, the dollars to support that acceleration are included in the reconciliation bill. The actual production rates, the timing, and ultimately the outcome of those negotiations with the Air Force would define what that financial profile looks like. It's too early for me to speculate on that. We are in the midst of those discussions. They've been held up a bit because of the government shutdown and the availability of resources to continue those discussions during this time. We expect those to resume, and we still expect that in the coming months, we would have more clarity on what that acceleration might look like.

Gotcha. Maybe as a quick follow-on, in your prepared remarks, you talked about some program award delays. What's driving that? The administration's been pushing hard for speed on acquisitions. Just curious where that's coming from.

I think with any new administration, it takes time to come in and make determinations of where to allocate resources and then to do the appropriate reviews and governance to make those decisions. We are certainly seeing in recent weeks the government shutdown having some impact on the government's ability to move quickly to make decisions and have the right resources available. We're all hopeful that the shutdown can come to a quick resolution and that we can resume work on some of these important decisions that would open up the spend plans and ultimate awards that will come from the government as they seek to move forward quickly.

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Kathy, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the opportunity in Iron Dome and missile defense in space. You've been doing some work with the SDA, but if you could talk about the state of maturity and the state of technology on missile readiness satellites or missile warning satellites, and if you see the current kind of tracking layer SDA or HBTSS being the nucleus of what's ultimately going to drive missile warning for Iron Dome, or is it going to come from elsewhere?

Let me start, Seth, by saying that we're very pleased to see the urgency the administration is placing on protecting the homeland and the set of opportunities that that creates. It's a very broad-based set of opportunities. Both the architecture and spend plan for Iron Dome are not public, so I won't comment on those specifically, but we do understand the challenges of creating a missile defense, both warning layer and set of interceptors that would defend the homeland. We are providing some high-fidelity operational analysis that can help the customer understand those requirements as well as ourselves as we define what our offerings might look like. We see this being a number of components to an architecture that range from existing programs where there may be additional opportunity to new programs.

I think you'll see more clarity coming from the department as they share more information on that architecture and spend plan in the coming months.

Okay. Great. Thanks. Just as a quicker follow-up, I think you mentioned earlier if the government shutdown ends relatively soon, we shouldn't see much impact. Sometimes it seems like we're in unusual times. At what point does the duration of the shutdown become more of a concern in terms of something where we might see an impact?

As I mentioned, the guidance that we updated for 2025 includes what we can foresee, including some of the delays that we talked about on program awards and timing. At the same time, we are assuming that this only goes a few more weeks, you know, say, around mid-November. If it goes beyond that, we may start to see some additional delays in getting funding on contract or even delays in receiving payment before year end that could impact our cash flows for the year. We don't anticipate that at this time, but it's certainly something we're watching. We are very hopeful, as I said, that the government will agree to reopen soon, even if under a continuing resolution.

Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you. Kathy, maybe if we could talk about the ARRO outlook for 2025, it seems down slightly, but B-21 award timing seems unchanged. What was the shift there and what was delayed in terms of certain awards? How do we think about that recapture in 2026? Just on B-21, how do we think about the free cash flow impact as it relates to CapEx in 2026?

Morning Sheila, this is Ken. I'll take that one. In terms of AS and the drivers across the 2025 sales profile, it was really product, it was timing of production activity. Do not view it as lost sales, but just timing of sales. The other aspect is on B-21, as we made the adjustment, the top-line implications regarding percentage of completion method created some additional top-line headwinds for both the quarter and the year. As we think about 2026, we continue to see the strength in B-21, continuing to be a grower, a contributor to AS's growth. In terms of the free cash flow with B-21, again, we're holding our overall guidance for 2026. When we think about the future and cash flow, we'll provide more clarity because, as Kathy mentioned, we are in the midst of multiple discussions that will ultimately determine the cash flow of the program.

That will be driven by, as we come to conclusions and understanding, if we do, on the ramping rate discussions.

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Hi, good morning, Kathy and Ken. I wanted to ask on IBCS. Kathy, you continue to call out success with that program. Obviously, it sounds like it's ramping in Poland. You've got some installations ramping here. How do you think about that program and the growth into 2026 in particular? Also, we're hearing that that program in particular is very well suited, perhaps, for some of the Iron Dome applications. Can you just comment on those discussions and how you view IBCS in particular with that opportunity?

Yes, we are very bullish on IBCS growth opportunities, both domestically. As you pointed out, it is a system that is able to integrate the Spirit sensors and kinetic effectors to enable visibility of the battlefield and then to provide us a fire control system that has application for protecting our homeland, just as it has application for our international partners in that same vein. We have talked previously about having over a dozen countries now that have expressed varying levels of interest in the program, particularly as we look at the success that we've now demonstrated in Poland, as I spoke about in our comments today. That is a live-fire example of how IBCS can be used in a homeland protection scenario. The U.S. has forward-deployed the system. I talked about the operational tests that it has performed for forward deployment in both Indo-PACOM and the European theater.

Can you talk about when we could expect other incremental orders internationally, in particular as you talk to those 12 countries?

We expect those to phase in over a multi-year period, starting in 2026, and we do expect IBCS to be a significant double-digit growth driver for us in next year's outlook.

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Ken, can you give any quantitative detail on the two B-21 financial items in the quarter between the higher EMD flight test costs and the contract restructure? It sounds like it was close to zero on the net amount, but just curious how large the gross numbers were for each of those two items.

Yes, Scott, you're correct. In terms of the cost growth that we baked in from lessons learned on the B-21 LRIFs offset by the restructure activity, it is, from a materiality perspective, a very low number. It essentially washes themselves.

Okay, Kathy, sorry if I missed this, but can you give us any sense for how international book-to-bill has trended on a year-to-date basis?

Yes. International book-to-bill remains very solid. As I noted, we have 20% sales growth year to date, and our international book-to-bill, coming into the year, was 1.4. This year, Todd is.

This year, we started off at about 1.45, Scott. When you look at quarter two and quarter three, it is timing dependent. Overall, we're roughly slightly lower than one, but we built a strong backlog last year that's leading to the growth this year. As Kathy mentioned, we had 20% year-over-year growth or year-to-date growth. On top of that, we had about 30% growth within the quarter alone.

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Safran with Seaport. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you. I think it was last month, Secretary of Defense made some comments about requesting industry make significant capacity increases in missile production. I think this is going well beyond just Iron Dome. I was kind of curious what this means for Northrop Grumman. Do you have any plans to undertake further capacity increases that might require incremental CapEx? Is there any timeline associated with planned increases?

Yes, Rich, thanks for the question. As I've outlined in a few of our calls over the last six quarters or so, we have already invested in expanding capacity. That includes for our tactical missile solid rocket motors where we've more than doubled capacity, and we are already breaking ground on another facility that would bring more capacity online in about two years. Right now, we have more capacity than we have orders. We are in the process of being qualified on additional missile systems, as I talked about in today's call. We have been awarded a couple, and we are in the process of qualification for a handful more. Those would utilize that capacity we've already brought online, but we foresee continued demand growth, which is why we've broken ground on yet another facility. In addition, we are building out our capacity for larger solid rocket motors.

We've talked about that for multiple purposes, including U.S. national security applications, but also commercial applications in space launch, as I spoke about today, with our GEM 63XL rocket motors that are fueling the ULA launches for the Kuiper satellites. We are already through a significant amount of Northrop Grumman-funded investment in that capacity, but we do have some that you will see committed in our CapEx numbers 2026 and 2027 as well.

Okay. I saw you made a bit of an announcement on Lumberjack, and I'm wondering if you'd discuss what the opportunity set for this program is, what's the domestic international potential, and when this program might have an impact on the P&L?

Yes. Lumberjack is an exciting new offering. We are developing that out of our Mission Systems segment, and it is a ground-launched opportunity for counter-UAS. It has communications, sensors. It is targetable, and we see this as an advancement of our small, microelectronic processing capabilities and communication put onto an innovative platform that we've worked with partners for to keep the cost very low and keep it competitive for what we see as the attributable market. We have introduced this capability. It's about a TRL 6 now, and we are working to find our first customers for it, but we also see there to be international opportunity. We clearly need to go through export for the product line, but those are all steps ahead that we look to continue through 2025 into 2026.

Your next question comes from the line of Gavin Parsons with UBS. Please go ahead.

Kathy, you pointed out that you guys spend more on CapEx than most of your peers in the industry. I mean, does that enable more than maybe mid-single-digit growth over the long term?

We believe that it can. We certainly have invested with the intention of driving significant growth, and that has started to come to fruition in some of our segments. You saw DS in particular with a very solid growth rate last year and this, and it is reflective of that investment I was just talking about, not only in the capacity for munitions and tactical missiles, but also the research and development that we're doing on new and innovative solutions or additions to solutions we already have, like IBCS, the investments we're making in modernizing that. I think it's a good case study of where we have put that investment in and been able to generate those higher levels of growth. Of course, we're working to do that across all of our segments.

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Stallard with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Kathy, just wanted to follow up on your initial comments. One of the members of the administration had said recently that they thought that U.S. defense companies should do a little more research and a little fewer stock buybacks. I was wondering if this is essentially a trial balloon or whether there are active discussions with the customer about this.

We certainly have discussions with the customer where they have shared their desire for industry to see the growth opportunities that would lead us to invest and that those would be profitable growth opportunities. We share in that sentiment. As I have shared with you today, I've also shared with the leaders in the Department of Defense that we have been doing that, that those higher levels of investment above industry average were because we saw that same vision that if we invested, we would have greater opportunity for growth and returns. I have articulated that we have a number of discussions underway, B-21 acceleration and other new areas, that is the core of the conversation that we and I believe my industry peers are having with the department.

Okay. A quick follow-up to that, though, I may be wrong, but it would appear fairly new, though, that they would be perhaps putting some restrictions around returns to shareholders. How would you feel about that?

We have not had any discussions with members of the administration that would suggest that that is their intent. I think that we all are aligned, meaning my company and our customers, that the best mechanism is to incentivize that investment through the opportunities for a clear demand signal that reflects in sales growth and increased returns, and that if those conditions exist, it is in our best interest, and we will continue to do what we have done, which is invest in that future.

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Mikus with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Morning, Kathy and Ken. Just a quick question on B-21. You kind of referenced that the reconciliation funding, I think there's $4.5 billion there, is for the acceleration of the production rate. Just to be clear, would actually increasing the program of record to 150 or 200 units be a completely separate negotiation, potentially with additional financial benefits for the firm?

Northrop Grumman (NOC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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