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Ingredion (INGR): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Ingredion

ingredion

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2025 Ingredion Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star 1, 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1, 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Noah Weiss. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, and welcome to Ingredion's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. I'm Noah Weiss, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me on today's call are James Zallie, our President and CEO, and James Gray, our Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release we issued today, as well as the presentation we will reference for our fourth quarter and full year results, can be found on our website, ingredion.com, in the Investors section. As a reminder, our comments within the presentation may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and include expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations and financial performance. Actual results could differ materially from those estimated in the forward-looking statements, and Ingredion assumes no obligation to update them in the future as or if circumstances change.

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed during today's conference call or in this morning's press release can be found in the company's most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K. During this call, we will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted operating income, and adjusted effective tax rate, which are reconciled to two U.S. GAAP measures in Note 2, non-GAAP information included in our press release and in today's presentation appendix. With that, I will turn the call over to James Zallie.

Thank you, Noah, and good morning, everyone. Despite unforeseen challenges throughout the year, we are pleased to share that we delivered record full-year operating income and earnings per share growth, driven by continued strength in Texture and Healthful Solutions and solid results from our Food and Industrial Ingredients LATAM business. Although the largest facility in our Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada segment faced operational difficulties, we have taken steps at the Argo facility to systematically address the issues. While we expect a gradual recovery, the actions we are taking should lead to steadily improving performance throughout 2026. Turning to the next slide, let's start with a summary of our net sales volume growth for the fourth quarter. Texture and Healthful Solutions posted its seventh straight quarter of volume growth up 4%, led by clean label ingredients and solutions.

Clean label ingredient volumes experienced significant growth in both the fourth quarter and throughout the year across Asia-Pacific and U.S./Canada. Clean label remains one of the food industry's fastest-growing areas, emphasizing its critical role in meeting consumers' preference for authentic ingredients and simple food labels. Ingredion continues to be a leader in the clean label texturizing space due to the breadth and strength of its portfolio, which is supported by proprietary technology, patents, consumer insights, and years of formulating expertise. Furthermore, our solutions selling approach continues to deliver robust growth, outpacing the segment's overall net sales performance. This comprehensive way of engaging customers is driving greater intimacy at a time when food companies are pursuing more reinvention and reformulation. These higher margin sales are also expected to be margin accretive to the segment over time.

In our Food and Industrial Ingredients LATAM segment, we started to see brewing adjunct volume demand recover from our long-term contracted customers. However, the region continued to face challenges in the confectionery and paper and corrugating sectors, where demand remains soft. Partially offsetting this softness, food ingredient sales experienced modest growth. Lastly, our Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada segment saw a 7% decrease in net sales volume in the most recent quarter, primarily driven by ongoing production challenges at Argo, which limited our ability to produce inventory available for sale. In addition to this operational issue, our business and the industry faced overall softness in beverage sweetener volumes, further contributing to lower sales. As we move to segment updates, I want to highlight progress against key growth investments and strategic initiatives. Starting with Texture and Healthful Solutions.

Our focus on the customer has never been stronger, delivering sales volume growth of 4% and OI growth of 16% versus prior year. In addition, strategic capital growth and cost savings investments were completed. At our flagship Indianapolis facility, our starch modernization project, completed in quarter four, will reduce our modified starch production costs through more efficient product flows and debottlenecking, which will drive the release of new capacity. In addition, we completed the expansion of our blending center of expertise in Belcamp, Maryland, which increases customized solutions revenue potential by $30 million a year. The range of solutions capable to be produced from this facility support clean label, plant-based protein, and fiber fortification, sugar reduction, and affordable formulating. Turning now to our Food and Industrial Ingredients LATAM segment.

Against a backdrop of regional, economic, and political volatility throughout the year, our team managed to deliver record operating income and margins of greater than 21% for the year, up 140 basis points. Mexico specifically demonstrated resilience to offset challenging, unforeseen economic conditions, delivering another record year of operating income. In pursuit of more profitable growth, Mexico repurposed a portion of its grind to strategically diversify its customer and product mix towards higher-margin ingredients that serve food and confectionery customers. We successfully completed a complex network optimization move in Brazil for long-term cost competitiveness. We closed our Alcântara facility and successfully expanded polyol production at Mogi Guaçu, our largest facility in Brazil. This investment was supported by long-term customer volume commitments. Now, turning to our Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada segment.

Operational issues at our Argo facility stubbornly persisted throughout the fourth quarter. Despite being encouraged by a strong September, we experienced intermittent grind shutdowns, which resulted in higher maintenance costs, lower yields, and fixed cost absorption, which reduced both our salable finished product inventory and our co-product valorization. Furthermore, industry volume demand for sweeteners was down throughout the second half. The 2025 full year operating income impact of Argo's operational challenges was approximately $40 million. With the majority of the first quarter still ahead of us, our team remains focused on executing an achievable recovery plan. Despite the unforeseen challenges and headwinds described, Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada delivered greater than 15.5 operating income margins for the year. Let me now update you on progress against our three strategic pillars. Let me start with driving profitable growth.

By continuing to prioritize solutions and clean label offerings, we have significantly enhanced the results of our Texture and Healthful segment. As mentioned previously, sales in both ingredient solutions and clean label categories have outpaced the overall segment's net sales growth during the second half of 2025, and we have a strong pipeline and growth momentum in both areas going forward. Furthermore, we are excited to report that our protein fortification business delivered a record year with net sales growth exceeding 40%. As you know, we have been working diligently to optimize this business for several years. In 2025, we doubled production and were able to increase the average selling price through new product innovation. We see this business representing a viable, long-term growth opportunity for us, supported by strong and clear consumer pull.

Looking at our second strategic pillar, innovation, we have developed a new family of ingredient solutions that help customers readily replace ingredients that have been impacted by shortages and rapidly rising raw material costs. For example, our suite of solutions to replace cocoa in product reformulations have seen steady sales increases throughout 2025. Furthermore, we are advancing our proprietary sugar reduction taste modulation platform in collaboration with Oobli through a strategic commercial partnership. Our sweet proteins and stevia blends improve the quality of natural sweetness while offering a cost-competitive, clean taste solution. Regarding innovation, Texture Elevation represents the next level in value delivery that we are offering to select customers. This co-creation approach combines proprietary consumer insights, sensory science, and rapid formulation expertise to help customers predict overall liking and deliver consumer-preferred textures faster and with higher success rates.

Our 2025 customer engagements proved very effective and are leading to customer successes in the marketplace. We are extremely excited by this opportunity and what it represents to grow customized solution sales, with the potential also to generate new service revenues. Lastly, I'd like to comment on our operational excellence pillar. In 2025, we delivered $59 million of cost-to-compete run rate savings, exceeding our previously stated $50 million savings target. This achievement reflects our ability to optimize across manufacturing, our manufacturing network, as well as deliver procurement and SG&A savings, leveraging our scale. Building off the success of cost-to-compete, we are transitioning our operational excellence strategic pillar toward long-term enterprise productivity. We look forward to updating you on our enterprise productivity progress in the future.

It is also worth highlighting that despite the volatile trade and tariff environment in 2025, Ingredion was minimally directly impacted. This was due to the fact that more than 80% of our production is locally made and locally sold. Turning to the next slide, our results this year demonstrate how Ingredion's diversified portfolio continues to drive stronger and more consistent profitability. While navigating volatile market conditions, we delivered record gross profit and expanded margins to over 25%, a clear testament to our agility and operational discipline. This performance also reflects the ability to leverage the strength of our global network, adapt quickly to shifting demand, and our focus on higher value solutions. As we continue to optimize our mix and execute against our strategy, we are building a foundation for sustained long-term growth.

Overall, 2025 stands out as a year where disciplined actions and portfolio balance enabled us to perform well in a challenging environment. Before I turn the call over to James to discuss our financial results, I do want to take a moment to comment on our CFO transition. Last week, we announced that James Gray will be retiring on March 31, 2026, and we have begun a comprehensive search to identify his successor. The board, the executive leadership team, and I are incredibly grateful for James's leadership during his more than nine years as a CFO of Ingredion. He's been an invaluable partner to me and has made significant contributions to our success. I wish James all the best in retirement, and with that, I'll turn the call over to James Gray for the financial review. James?

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. Moving to our income statement. Net sales for the fourth quarter were $1.8 billion, down 2% versus prior year. Gross profit dollars decreased by 4%, with gross margin slightly lower at 24.5%, as cost of goods sold was impacted by higher manufacturing expense in U.S, Canada, food and ingredients. Reported and adjusted operating income were $220 million and $228 million, respectively. Turning to our Q4 net sales bridge, the 2% decrease was driven by $40 million in lower volume, $39 million in lower price mix, offset partially by $36 million of favorable foreign exchange. Moving to the next slide, we highlight net sales drivers for the fourth quarter.

Texture and Healthful Solutions net sales were up 2%, driven by sales volume growth of 4% and foreign exchange favorability of 2%, partially offset by price mix attributable to pass-through of declining tapioca input costs and greater volume mix of lower value tapioca-based sweeteners sold locally in Thailand. Food and Industrial Ingredients Latam reported net sales up 1%, largely driven by favorable foreign exchange, partially offset by weaker volumes. Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada net sales declined 9%. Sales volume fell by 7%, primarily driven by less available inventory for sale as our Argo facility faced operating challenges, and we met customer demand by sourcing from other plants. Turning to our earnings bridge. On the top half, you can see the reconciliation from reported to adjusted earnings per share.

Operationally, we saw a decrease of $0.23 per share for the quarter, driven by a decrease in operating margin of -$0.22 and volume of -$0.10, partially offset by foreign exchange gain of +$0.08 per share. Moving to the change in non-operational items, we had an increase of $0.13 per share. Shares outstanding had a favorable impact of $0.08 per share, and a lower tax rate equivalent was $0.06 per share favorable. Moving to our full year income statement. Net sales for the full year were $7.2 billion, down 3% versus prior year. Gross profit dollars increased by 2%, with gross margin increasing to 25.3%. Reported and adjusted operating income were $1.016 billion and $1.028 billion, respectively.

Turning to our full year net sales bridge, the 3% decrease was driven by $144 million in lower price mix, $75 million in lower volume, offset partially by $8 million of favorable foreign exchange. Moving to the next slide, we highlight net sales drivers for the full year. Texture and Healthful Solutions net sales were up 1%, driven by 4% sales volume growth and foreign exchange favorability of 2%, partially offset by price mix. Food and Industrial Ingredients Latam reported net sales down 4%, driven by weaker volumes across brewing adjuncts. Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada net sales declined 7%. Sales volume fell 4%, primarily due to previously mentioned challenges at our Argo facility and weaker sweetener demand. Now let's turn to a summary of results by segment.

For full year 2025, Texture and Healthful Solutions net sales was up 1% and operating income was up 16%. which translated into a higher operating income margin of 16.9%, up more than 200 basis points from the prior year. The increase for the full year was driven by lower raw material and input costs, as well as improved margins, volumes, partially offset by unfavorable price mix. In addition, one comment regarding Texture and Healthful Solutions quarter four operating income. Last year's fourth quarter had one-time benefits from SG&A, which we were lapping. We anticipate that Texture and Healthful will continue to generate positive operating income growth. In Food and Industrial Ingredients Latam, net sales were down 4% versus last year. However, operating income increased to $493 million, and operating income margin reached a record 21.1%.

Moving to Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada, full-year net sales were down 7%. Operating income was $315 million, down 16%, driven by production challenges at our Argo plant and lower than expected beverage and food volume demand. For the fourth quarter, we estimate that operating challenges have had a $16 million loss impact, and that the total 2025 impact is approximately $40 million. For the all other group of businesses, the 2% increase in net sales was driven by growth both in our sugar reduction and protein fortification businesses. Operating loss improved by $20 million versus prior year, driven mainly by significant gains in protein fortification. Turning to our full-year earnings bridge, where we illustrate the 4.5% year-over-year increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share.

Operationally, we saw an increase of $0.13 per share, driven by an increased operating margin equivalent of $0.39 and other income of $0.15, partially offset by volume of -$0.47 per share. Moving to the change in non-operational items, we had an increase of $0.35 per share. Shares outstanding had a favorable impact of $0.23 per share, a lower tax rate equivalent of $0.09 per share, and lower financing costs of $0.03 per share. Moving to cash flow. Full year cash from operations was $944 million, which includes investment and working capital of $75 million for 2025. Full year CapEx investment, net of disposals, was $433 million. The company continues to invest in organic growth opportunities that provide a significantly higher return than our cost of capital.

We repurchased $224 million of outstanding common shares, exceeding our $100 million share repurchase target announced at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, we paid out $211 million in dividends and increased the dividend per share to $0.82 during the third quarter, which represents our 11th consecutive annual dividend increase. Now let me turn to our 2026 outlook. For the full year 2026, we anticipate net sales to be up low single digits to mid-single digits, reflecting greater volume demand. We anticipate that reported and adjusted operating income will be up low single digits for full year 2026. Our 2026 financing cost estimate is in the range of $40 million-$50 million and a reported and adjusted effective tax rate of 25.5%-27%.

Our full year adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $11-$11.80, reflecting continued sales volume growth in Texture and Healthful Solutions, and relatively slower operating income growth from our Food and Industrial Ingredients segments as we face industry volume demand softness and higher manufacturing inflation, not fully offset by pricing. This adjusted EPS range is based upon a share count of 64-65 million shares. We anticipate our 2026 cash from operations will be in the range of $820 million-$940 million, reflecting slightly more working capital investment as net sales are expected to grow. Capital expenditures for the full year are anticipated to be between $400-$440 million.

Please note that our guidance reflects current tariff levels in effect at the end of January 2026. In addition, this guidance excludes any acquisition-related integration and restructuring costs, as well as any potential impairment costs. Turning to our full year outlook by segment. For T&H, we estimate net sales to be up low single digits to mid-single digits, and for operating income growth to be up low single digits to mid-single digits, driven by sales volume growth. For F&I Latam, net sales are estimated to be up low single digits to mid-single digits, and operating profit to be flat to up low single digits, reflecting sales volume growth, partially offset by foreign currency transactional headwinds, specifically in Mexico.

As a reminder, we are dollar functional in Mexico; therefore, a stronger peso inflates local manufacturing and costs and operating expenses. For F&I U.S./Canada, our outlook for net sales is in the range that is generally flat year-over-year, and operating income is projected to be flat. While we have near-term confidence in Argo's recovery, we anticipate continued challenges through the first quarter in line with the previous quarter. Furthermore, while contract pricing covered raw material cost changes, we were not fully able to cover anticipated manufacturing cost inflation. For all our other businesses, we expect the combined net sales to be up high single digits and operating income to improve $5 million-$10 million.

Lastly, for the first quarter of 2026, we expect net sales to be down low single digits and operating income to be down mid double digits, primarily due to the strength of first quarter 2025's 26% operating income growth. With regards to my announced retirement, it has been a privilege to host 35 quarterly calls with you, our shareholders, analysts, and employees. Ingredion has an amazing leadership team led by James Zallie, and we will continue to be supported by a very, very strong finance team. As a shareholder, I look forward to Ingredion's continued success as the company navigates any challenges with proven agility and seizes future growth opportunities to deliver solutions that make healthy taste better. That concludes my comments, and I'll hand back to James.

Thank you, James. In closing, 2025 was another year where we displayed meaningful progress against our strategic pillars, led by the strong sales volume momentum we saw from our Texture and Healthful Solutions segment. We believe the clear customer focus that has resulted from the resegmentation, completed two years ago, along with our advanced approach to solutions selling, positions us well for continued growth in this segment in 2026. We are also encouraged by the continued benefits we expect to see from the nearly $60 million of cost-to-compete run rate savings we delivered by the end of last year. Our commitment to cost competitiveness will continue forward as we pursue enterprise productivity for long-term effectiveness and efficiency.

We anticipate Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada to meaningfully overcome its operational setbacks as we remain laser focused on stabilizing Argo, and we expect steady improvement from the facility throughout the year. Finally, our financial position remains a source of strength. We delivered nearly $950 million of cash from operations in 2025 and returned $435 million to shareholders. As James explained, we expect cash flow from operations to continue at these levels, providing flexibility to pursue growth. Now, let's open the call for questions.

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1, 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1, 1 again. One moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question is gonna come from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer & Co. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for taking the question and James D. Gray, best wishes. Thank you so much for the help over the last several years. So kicking off then with the outlook, you sprinkled some breadcrumbs throughout the prepared remarks about the Argo facility. Just help me understand, how much in the fourth quarter was Argo versus the volume decline? And then, how we should think about that playing out in 2026, because I would have thought with a $40 million headwind from that facility, that maybe the op income guide would be a bit higher in FNI North America. So maybe help me bridge all those pieces together that you left for us throughout the call.

Yeah, sure. So obviously in Q4, the primary issue was the operational challenges there.  As we said, and to remind, we felt that that was about $16 million impact, as we're kind of estimating between idle and yield lost and some incremental maintenance costs. That was the impact to the U.S./Canada FNI segment in Q4. So, and then for, in total, for 2025, the impact to the U.S./Canada FNI segment was about $40 million. As we roll forward and we look at, you know, kind of the 2026 guide for that segment, we also then, you know, we had some laps when we go from back up to 2024 versus 2025, right? So we're down about, let's call it $58 million. So $40 million is Argo.

We had a couple other earlier events in the year, kind of more manufacturing events related. We had a small train derailment in Cedar Rapids, and let's say that was about 10, and then from 2024 to 2025, we had probably about 8 in terms of just volume softness. So and through 2025 and probably from June on, you saw some response by some of our customers to tariffs. We saw some pricing increases across some categories, you know, soda beverages, beer and cans, et cetera, where we provide a lot of sweetener volume or adjunct volume into. And naturally, those categories are elastic, so you're gonna see some volume softness in really the second half.

Maybe that started in May, in May, June, but throughout summer and throughout fall. So as we go into 2026, we'll still have some Argo costs, as and those will be mostly impacted in Q1. But we will probably get back some of the Argo one-time impacts in the back half of 2026. So then what it says is, though, so that should say, "Hey, you should be up year over year, 2026 versus 2025 on your op income, and maybe you should be up, $15 million-$20 million." And what I think what we're really seeing is that when we looked at contract pricing, we absolutely were able to cover any change, anticipated change in the net cost of corn. But we do have some manufacturing inflation.

We have some higher natural gas, and we have some higher labor rates. And so those are playing against our COGS rate of change in U.S./Canada. And that's in our guide, so our upside to our guide would be that our inflation is less, maybe there's a stronger volume, that shows up in the second half. And all of those would be pluses, but we felt it kind of prudent to guide kind of flat year-over-year.

And James, just to answer the question regarding the percentage, or say, the apportionment of the decline in the quarter, Argo vis-a-vis sweetener volumes, we say 2/3 Argo, 1/3 sweetener volume?

And then in addition to that, you know, the impact for the full year of $40 million for Argo, of course, you know, if you looked at that as limited to 2025, and I would say January's been a little bit of a rough start to January. And so

It's been pretty cold. It's been pretty cold in January. As we sit here right now, the plant is running well. It actually ran well from a standpoint of through the very severe cold spell, but January was not as strong as we had anticipated, and I think that, in addition to everything else that James just said, is the reason why we're putting forward, say, a flat year-on-year projection for the full year.

Yeah. And maybe, Kristen, you know, I think it's helpful to then say, well, you know, what do you anticipate U.S, Canada, FNI's potential to be? I, I think once through Argo's recovery, and we look at some of the investments that we, we've made and how we're positioned with customers, this segment can definitely still achieve a 16%-17% op income margin.

Okay, that is super, super helpful. I'm gonna ask one here also on Texture and Healthful Solutions, because I think, James, you, you called out maybe some tapioca headwinds here, maybe some mixed headwinds. And, you know, one of the questions that we get about Ingredion is through this Texture and Healthful Solutions, really looking to see that ASP per ton move higher, help contribute to, to that OI income outgrowth. So, maybe pencil out for us the one-time items there, and then the, the price mix headwinds that you're expecting in 2026, just help us unpack those a little bit. Thank you.

Yeah. look, I think, if you looked at just the print on the op income margin for texture and health for fourth quarter, right, it'll show op income, down year-over-year, by a slight percentage. That was all really driven by some benefit and op expense in Q4 of 2024. One-timers, as you, adjusted, there was some, some comp, benefit, and we had to take that in the Q4 and accrue for that. So we really, it's just- it's kinda just the, the year-over-year cleanup, when you're getting to, how you're looking at one year's finishing.

So I really didn't see that because I wanna highlight the gross margins for texture and healthful for Q4 had gross margin, gross profit had grown and gross margins had expanded, right? So I think that's always a better measure of, you know, the health of the product mix in texture and healthful. As we look forward to 2026, and we talk a little bit about what's the expectation for price mix to finally move positive, right? And to finally show kinda year-over-year gains in ASPs. That's absolutely gonna be reflected by, you know, some of the comments James made on solutions growth, on Texture Elevation. These are all very much positives that are driving much higher average selling prices per ton, and I think are reflected in value to the customer.

I do want to remind everybody, though, is that, you know, so we're in, we just finished the second year of this resegmentation, and we're going into 2026, and we still have some little pockets of business that may not be at that, you know, higher average ASP. And so one of those businesses in Thailand, and we still have a tapioca glucose syrup business. It is pretty big volume relative to our more higher value tapioca texture solutions. And so when it has a lot of demand and it moves up, it's gonna have an impact on price mix, and/or we had a healthy tapioca crop and tapioca prices came down. And so again, we're gonna reflect those changes in the raw materials we pass those through. We'll always try and call that out.

But I think we're pretty confident and pretty excited about the Texture Solutions growth and what it implies for ASP as we go forward year over year.

Yeah, and it's noteworthy, I think, for the full year, Texture and Healthful operating income margins were up 210 basis points.

That's great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Thank you. One moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question comes to the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys, you have James Cannon on for Josh.

I wanted to ask on the LATAM business. You had some mixed management, some business rationalizations earlier in the year. You talked in the quarter about underlying demand there being improving. I was just wondering if you could kind of break out some of the volume movements that you saw there, kind of like you did with U.S, U.S./Canada earlier.

Yeah. Quarter four net sales were up 1%. For the segment, quarter four sales volume declined by 3%, but that was largely attributable to the brewing adjunct volume declines. More than 100% of the downside was attributed to brewing adjunct, whereas there was sales volume growth for food and beverage, and that was positive. And because the brewing adjunct business represents 18% of net sales, and a larger percentage of our volume, we've been actively pursuing alternative paths to utilize the grind more profitably by trading up to support higher margin products in food and confectionery. And this really represents an exciting, incremental opportunity to diversify beyond brewing and valorize our grind much more profitably. Just for some additional color, Mexico food volumes were up 3%, and beverage volumes were up 1%.

Yeah, so we've started that, James, we've started that transition, right? So we still have, Mexico still has, I would say, at least 1-2 years of ramp, from the, from the volume that it sort of released by, kind of rightsizing and, and, and managing through the, the customer change. But, it's, it's starting well, so we're excited about that.

Okay, great. And then I just wanted to poke one thing on THS as well. You talk about the solutions business being higher margin than the rest of the segment. Could you just give us some quantification of, like, how much of the mix is sold as solutions today, what that margin differential looks like?

Yeah. Hey, so, the solutions has been something where we've been working on establishing a baseline, really tightly defining that, and really completed that work in 2024. And in 2025, we're able to, James and, Patrick Kalatas and Michael O'Riordan were able to kind of set some real objectives for the, for the sales teams. So that business right now, in 2024 and 2025, is just over $1 billion. And, the gross margins are definitely higher than the segment average, and they're up, like, 30%-35% is probably where-

Yeah, I'd say 5% higher than the segment's overall average.

It's about 40% of the revenue, approximately, of the segment.

Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Ben Theurer with Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Oh, yeah, good morning, and James and James, thanks for taking my question. James, I'll talk to you later on, but enjoy retirement. Two quick ones. So number one, just picking up on Texture and Healthful Solutions a little bit, can you help us maybe understand, within the framework of the guidance, where you stand in terms of like contracting pricing for 2026? Is there anything off cycle in terms of like the pricing mechanisms going out to. Because if I remember right, I think you said something like flat for the beginning at the beginning of 2025, and then kind of like ended up somewhat negative mid-single digits. So just understanding a little bit the drivers and things you've already talked about, tapioca and those factors.

So how should we think about 26, nonetheless, on your current expectations, as it relates to TNH? That would be my first question.

Yeah, so let me take that and then let James add some color commentary. I would say that contracting for TH and S in the U.S. was completed with pricing slightly down, and we anticipate that we covered any changes in the cost of corn and other raw materials. We are anticipating volume gains year-over-year. That said, some large customers were communicating that unit volumes might be lower given their pricing actions and the fact that U.S. consumers continue to struggle with affordability. We anticipate that we will not fully cover the expected manufacturing cost inflation, and that will hold our gross margins basically flat in general for that segment.

Ben, just for Texture and Healthful, right? So slightly higher semi-variable and fixed costs in that business, right, as we use more production lines to create value. So manufacturing cost inflation, 2.5%. Some of that reflected in energy cost change year-over-year, some of that in labor costs. And as you go into your pricing, you, you clearly, you're having a conversation with the customer about any change in the raw material. But you're also always trying to price in enough to cover that manufacturing cost inflation. And I think in this year, we are looking at the outlook and saying, well, some of that manufacturing cost inflation is gonna show up, and we'll see.

You know, clearly, our operations team will always take up the mantle to work enterprise productivity to lower that. Our procurement team is going to go and work against any rate changes year-over-year, but that would be upside to our guidance for Texture and Healthful.

Okay, perfect. And then, James, for you on the outlook, I mean, clearly, cash from operations expected another strong year, close to $1 billion, with CapEx a little less than, call it, $500 million. So that leaves me with, like, $500 million free cash flow. You've spent a little over $200 million for repurchases, and then there's a little over $200 million on dividends. How should we think for 2026 on terms of repurchases of stock? And that may be in context to M&A, what you might have in your pipeline or not. So what are the key preferences here between one or the other, given where the stock price is currently at?

Yeah. I guess right now, the view that we have is, as we have done in previous years, we've established a share repurchase commitment of at least $100 million for 2026. The cash on the balance sheet does, as you indicated, remain strong, by this year, generating nearly $950 million of cash from operations. And, you know, we think it's important to remain flexible and retain optionality for strategic M&A opportunities, and clearly, our balance sheet provides us, you know, that opportunity to do that. So, but that's the view for, you know, the buybacks. Just a reminder, I think, James, in 2024, we also bought back more than $200 million of shares as well.

But for 2026, we've established the same target we've had in previous years, of at least $100 million.

Yeah. Maybe just for everyone listening, 'cause when we think about capital allocation priorities, we're putting out there that CapEx will be between $400 million-$440 million, tongue twister. But within that is still a healthy budget for growth, you know, anticipating between, like, $80 million-$100 million in growth for 2026. Pretty excited about those projects. James highlighted a few projects that we've completed in 2025. We still see opportunities around the world that really support us having the capacity, as well as the product lines to continue to drive growth, supporting solutions, and supporting some of our other seg-sectors where we see growth.

And then we also have about $40 million or so in kind of large cost savings and infrastructure improvement projects. And so those will finish up in 2026. But for example, you know, at our Indianapolis plant, we're working on a new cogeneration, and that project will finish in 2026. So, we have some very discretionary, discrete opportunities that we're pursuing in our CapEx budget, that we think is a great deployment of capital to create returns for shareholders.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question is gonna come from the line of Heather Jones with Heather Jones Research LLC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Morning. Thanks for the question. And James, I'm truly gonna miss working with you. It's been a great pleasure, but

I'm sure you'll enjoy retirement. I guess my first question is on LatAm. Given the recent surge in currencies, I think you called out the peso and the Mexican peso, and then some of the tax regulatory changes that we've got going on this year in Mexico. Just wondering, what are the positives that will offset those potential risks and drive growth in that segment in 2026?

Yeah, maybe. Let me take some upsides and downsides maybe to what is currently in our forecast with regard to LatAm. So you're right. So as I mentioned in the remarks, we're dollar functional in Mexico, which means that a strong peso increases our operating expense and increases some of our manufacturing expense. And so we're feeling that right now, and so that'll be the transactional cost headwind as we go into 2026. Now, there are opportunities. We're gonna watch the value of the peso versus the dollar, but if that peso gets stronger, that's kind of really the downside estimate. And  the opposite is, we'd have upside.

If we saw moments where the peso was weaker versus the dollar, then that's something that we can go in and kind of secure for the balance of the year. I think within LatAm, you know, what we're really, I think, is encouraging to see, at least, is that there is some of, like, the food and maybe the beverage category volume at retail. So the more the Nielsen data was showing volume up in Q4. And so there's been a bit of noise economically around Mexico in terms of its GDP growth, you know, where might inflation wind up?

So, you know, hopefully what we'll see in 2026 is a slightly stronger consumer in Mexico once, you know, kind of wage impacts are felt. So that's a little bit of what we're watching, probably mostly in LatAm, is, you know, the volume pull that we see in Mexico.

Yeah, and I think it's noteworthy also, we got asked about this on one of the prior calls, that the sugar tax on sweetened beverages went into effect on January 1st. And essentially, the amount is approximately 7%-8% on single-serve full-calorie sodas and, you know, a new tax of 3%-4% on lighter diet beverages. And in the past, what we have seen, this type of tax, you know, has an early negative impact on volumes in the first few months, and then after implementation, then those impacts subside. So we're gonna watch that.

Now, also, it's noteworthy to point out, and we've seen this repeatedly every four years, is this is a World Cup year, and so we are expecting incremental volume from the World Cup, which should benefit volumes in Q2 and Q3, and that goes for, for beverages as well as brewing as well.

Okay, that makes sense. And can you remind me in Mexico specifically, what's the rough breakdown of your sales that are food versus bev, so we could just 'cause you're talking about, like, stronger volumes now in food and just how as we think about the risk of that new tax, just it would help, help frame it in our minds if you could give us a rough breakdown of the food versus bev.

So I'm gonna say, well, Noah, maybe will update this, but I'm gonna guess that between, you know, kind of brewing adjunct and beverages, that that volume is about 40%, and that the food as well as the industrial and confectionery and all other would be the remainder.

But also, James, the breakdown of soft drinks vis-à-vis in Mexico vis-à-vis brewing is much smaller.

Much smaller. And so we're not a big exporter into Mexico of HFCS because we produce locally.

And so we've talked about that in years past on how we strategically diminished that exposure. So it's more weighted towards brewing and less so towards soft drinks exposure.

Okay, thank you. And then the follow-up is, in you mentioned that you expect to get some of the Argo effect back in the second half of this year. Just was wondering, in, like, your base case for the U.S. canned business, what is your assumptions of how much of that $40 million you'll get back in the back half?

I'd probably, I mean, I think it'd be fair to say, look, look, I think in, you know, Q1, we're probably gonna have another anywhere between $10 million and $15 million of impact, and so that won't, you know, lap, and so you might see $20 million of Argo benefit come back in, in, in the second half.

There's a range around that assumption, right?

Ingredion (INGR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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