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Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company. Focused on the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves, the company primarily operates in the Permian Basin in West Texas, expanding into the top oil producer focused exclusively on the Permian. Diamondback has grown through strategic acquisitions, including the recent $26 billion merger with Endeavor Energy Resources, making it one of the largest producers in the country. Diamondback continues to play a significant role in meeting the nation’s energy needs.

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Diamondback Energy (FANG): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Diamondback Energy

diamondback energy

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Diamondback Energy First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone.

You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Adam Lawless, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

and welcome to Diamondback Energy's first quarter twenty twenty five conference call. During our call today, we will reference an updated investor presentation and letter to stockholders, which can be found on Diamondback's website. Representing Diamondback today are Travis Stice, Chairman and CEO Kate Van Toss, President Danny Wesson, COO and Jerry Thompson, CFO. During this conference call, participants may make certain forward looking statements relating to the company's financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and businesses. We caution you that actual results could differ materially from those that are indicated in these forward looking statements due to a variety of factors.

Information concerning these factors can be found in the company's filings with

will make reference to certain non GAAP measures. The reconciliations with the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release issued yesterday afternoon. I'll now turn the call over to Travis Stice.

Thank you, Adam. I hope everyone has had a chance to review our stockholder letter that was released last night. Most of our commentary today will be found inside that letter. Operator, would you please open the line for questions?

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Our first question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs and Co. Your line is now open.

Yeah, good morning, Travis, Case. And Travis, congratulations as you position for retirement. And Case, congratulations again on taking on the new role. I think some important news this morning around changes in the activity plans and in response to obviously what is a tougher oil macro. So, Travis, can you spend some time talking about the thought process that went into the decision and how you're thinking about the approach from here.

Sure, Neil. Our job is to allocate capital and allocate capital for the most profit we can for the shareholders who own the company. Part of our role is we have to have a view of the macro as we allocate capital, and the current view of the macro is certainly challenging at best. Over the weekend, OPEC made the decision to put an extra million barrels a day on the market in what's already an oversupplied world, we still are looking at headwinds with what we're seeing as slowing economies around the world, which obviously has a read through to demand. So what we tried to put together was a response to those kind of macro conditions, which by taking $400,000,000 out of our capital budget and three drilling rigs and one frac spread allowed us to maximize the CapEx reduction while minimizing volume impact and at the same token provide us a runway for maximum flexibilities to respond in either direction in the future quarters as this evolving supplydemand imbalance works its way through the system.

So that's sort of the background of what we talked to the board about well before Saturday's decision by OPEC. And again, it stems with how can we create the most value when we allocate capital. And when you look at what we've done with this announcement, we've actually made our program more capital efficient by spending less dollars this year.

Travis. The follow-up on that is we certainly reduced your cash CapEx by $400,000,000 The impact on production is not that significant at least for 2025. And so is that a function of the delay between changes in activity and production? Or is that you guys were just really tracking well in terms of your productivity to start the year?

Yes, Neal. Let give you some color on that because I think it's important, right? On the outside, it looks like a 1% hit to production. But if you just look at Q2 peak to trough, we're going to probably be down 20,000 net barrels of oil a day, which on a gross basis is close to 30,000. So we had a great April, things were humming along, we were well over 500,000 net barrels of oil a day.

Obviously now hitting the brakes a little bit with the reduction in the frac crews. And so if you think about it, we're about 475,000 barrels a

Q2 guide round numbers is about 495,000 and then we're going to decline off a bit into Q3 down to about four eighty five dollars and at that point in today's market hold that flat.

So on the outside, it looks like a flattish program, but this is why we've kind of been saying that we think gross well production is coming down in the Permian and The U. S. You just look at ours, for example, going from five frac crews down to four is going to be a 30,000 barrel a day impact in just a quarter.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Yes, thanks. And Travis, again, congrats too on your next stage. Look, would say it's unfortunate it has to be on a bad macro note, but I think it's a testament to what you've created that Diamondback's able to kind of manage through this pretty well. My first question is you're welcome. My first question is just your broad view of the oil macro.

I thought it was pretty interesting in your investor letter, how you thought The U. S. Oil production was ready to roll over. And obviously, you all have some pretty good eyes and feelers out on the ground. Can you give us a sense of what you're seeing real time in the Permian Basin and other places and your view on maybe where oil production goes from here and it's more of a U.

Sure. Well, certainly as Permian Basin goes, S. Production And you know at roughly 6,000,000 barrels of oil a day, we've got a base decline that we have to offset every year of about 2,500,000 barrels a day. And it doesn't take much capital to come out of the equation for that base decline to really be seen in production.

And so you can apply that also to the 13,000,000 barrels a day that The U. S. Is producing. That's roughly 4,500,000 or 5,000,000 barrels a day of production and has to be replaced. So I think as capital continues to come out of the investment equation, this decline that we're on is really going to be magnified.

And because we are in the more mature stage of the development, this is not one of the types of declines that can be offset by improved efficiencies, although we highlighted continued efficiency gains at the Diamondback level in the quarterly results. But we're picking pennies up now. And when we were going through this earlier in our history, probably most recently 2014 and early 'fifteen, we were able to pick up dimes and quarters back then. And it's just where we are in the maturation cycle of depleting these resources that I think you're going to see a really remarkable response on this base decline that's part of the equation.

Yeah, Scott, we've been kind of well trained in shale, right?

This is the fourth time we've had to do this in ten years, the worst being five years ago, and you saw how quickly shale responded. I think the only thing I would add to Travis's comments is the operators that we talked to in the field that live and work in Midland are right now pushing everything to the right, right? Every little five to eight well program that was going to get drilled is now going to get drilled and probably not completed or drilled later. And so all those little anecdotes start to add up and you add that into what the companies like Diamondback are doing and that starts to add up pretty quickly. So I think for us, let's get this over with and move forward.

Because the other side of this is going to be great for those that are left, and it's going to be a great day for Diamondback shareholders.

And the comment I made, Scott, on the tipping point in U. S. Production, it just depends on how low oil price goes and how long it lasts. But the scenario is with this base decline that's so extreme is that the amount of capital required to get back to 13,000,000 barrels a day or 6,000,000 barrels a day in the Permian might be an untenable lift for the business model that we put in place where we're returning so much back to our investors that own the company.

So that's sort of the final analysis is how low do we get and then what is the reinvestment rate going to be required to get production back up or to get it start growing again.

Yeah, appreciate the commentary. Definitely feels like it's a have and have not situation. Know, Kase, look, you gave a little bit of color on 2H this year and you kind of mentioned in your brief comments just a while ago, it's time to get over this and move forward. Like as Diamondback thinks about like moving forward in 2026, what is it going to take for you guys to move maintenance mode in? And can you just give a little color on the setup for 2026 considering obviously we're declining and flattening out in the back half

Yes, that's a good question, Scott. I mean, I think the key point for us is that we're not sacrificing anything in 2026 today. We expect to run four crews here for probably the next three months depending on where prices go. If things get worse, we could go lower. But basically the plan points to us bringing back a fifth crew and leveling off at 485,000 barrels of oil a day in Q4, we'll still end the year with more DUCs than we've ever had and more flexibility than we've ever had to increase production in 2026 should prices respond.

And in my mind, that's a $65.70 dollars plus world where OPEC's spare capacity is lower and we have a healthier macro. So I'm hoping for that day. We'd like to get back to that 500,000 barrels of oil a day net plus plant, but it seems like it's a long way away today with the next couple of quarters we have.

And I think, Scott, just to finish this commentary, I think our shareholders are lucky that Diamondback has such a long inventory because while this base decline that I talked about at the macro will present itself for Diamondback as well and Kaes gave you some very specific numbers for that, the breadth and depth of our inventory allows us to be more insulated from that than other investment opportunities where the inventory is a lot shorter or shorter and of less quality. So I hope that makes sense, but that's kind of how we think about 2026 and 2027.

Appreciate the comments. Again, Travis, congrats.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with TD Securities. Your line is now open.

Thanks for the time, guys. And Travis, thanks for your candid thoughts in the letter. Good luck to everyone in the roles ahead.

Kaes, you could follow-up a bit or anyone, perhaps Danny, talking about sort of the optimal duct load. Obviously, you elected to drop the rigs and not build further ducts with the one frac crew coming down. It sounds like net net this plan you're drawing down perhaps or building 20 fewer DUCs this year going into next year. How do we think about the variables for maybe keeping those rigs and building a DUC backlog in the context of what the right amount of DUC inventory level is for you going into the next couple of years? Or is it more of a function of where you expect drilling rig rates to be coming down in the ensuing quarters?

Yeah, I mean, look, we were carrying probably the largest DUC backlog in North America right now. And so we you know, there's not a world where we're looking at, you know, building ducks, you know, gross ducks, the top line level. So, you know, in the new plan, we're drawing down less ducks than we were in the original plan. I think probably a rule of thumb is for every frac crew you have running unique one and a half to two pads of duck inventory behind ahead of those pads. So our head of those crews, we're going to run five crews, you got to have 10 pads ish worth of dug backlog at, call it, eight to 12 wells a pad.

So, that kind of gets you to a comfortable DUC backlog inventory for a run rate. We're probably sitting at the end of this year another 100 wells above that number depending on what prices do in the back half of this year.

David, we put the comment in our letter that traditionally we would build more DUCs in this environment, but our largest input costs on drilling wells. So let's just say that drilling a well costs $200 a foot, about $2,000,000 The cost of casing is $650,000 a well now and that is up 12% quarter over quarter due to tariff impacts. So we think that the demand side, as the rig count reduces, steel prices come back down, and we can look at logically bringing some rigs back to build DUCs if costs are cheap.

But that capital allocation decision today tells us drop the rigs, buy back stock.

Appreciate the color. And then maybe just as a follow-up, just given the environment we're in now, have your expectations changed with the ability to execute on some of the non operated or non core sales or the anticipated water infrastructure sale to Deep Blue?

Yeah, listen, Deep Blue obviously is essentially a subsidiary of ours. We own 30% of it. We think the EDS, which is the Endeavor Water System, logically belongs in Deep Blue, would make that business the largest water handler in the Midland Basin. It seems that water has started to get a lot more attention in the public market. So I don't see that sale or deal being pushed too far to the right just because we want to get those two businesses integrated and ready for what's next.

Outside of that, we obviously participated a little bit in the sale of BANGL, the NGL pipeline, to MPLX. That should close in July. And the last big piece of our equity method investments is the EPIC pipeline, which we own 27.5% of. I think that probably is a slower process today than it was three months ago. But I think lessons learned from past down cycles is that we don't have to force asset sales.

We can be patient. I think we're going to get a couple of wins on the board, but we don't have to hit a specific number by a specific period of time because we think the market's going to recover and the balance sheet's strong and we can be patient.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Freeman with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Good morning, and congratulations again, Travis, on a fantastic career. I want to follow-up on some of the prior commentary. And again, really appreciate the leadership that you all are showing with this meaningful reduction in activity, both in the shareholder letter and then in those comments earlier in the call, talked about kind of that $65 70 dollars kind of oil price world where you'd look to maybe put your foot back on the accelerator. And I just want to kind of dig it out a little bit more. So should we think of it as even if your cost structure was to continue to move lower due to service costs, efficiencies, whatever, and returns continue to improve, you all would still probably wait until you're in a $65.70 dollars world before you'd want to put your foot on the accelerator.

Yeah, that's right, John. I just think we want to be patient. I think there's a lot of uncertainty on both the demand and the supply side. In our mind, the supply side is going to figure itself out pretty quickly here, but demand obviously is something I'm not an expert in. We're experts in US shale and US supply and what we're seeing in the field.

In my mind, a 70 plus crude environment is relatively healthy environment and that would be an appropriate time to bring some capital back into the equation.

Got it. And then you all did highlight what you've seen in terms of the impact on kind your steel related products with the tariffs on casing being up 12% since last quarter. But we're able to lower your Midland Basin cost per foot guidance yet again. And I just hope when you could maybe speak to kind of the puts and takes that are allowing you kind of offset what you're seeing on the casing side.

Yeah, mean, first of all, the teams had an incredible first quarter. Mean, we put some highlights in the deck. Under eight days average per well on one and twenty plus wells is a pretty impressive feat. So I think we're on the lower end of our efficiencies, which is good. And I think unfortunately the rest of that reduction is likely to come from the service environment here with rigs coming down frac crews coming down.

But I'll let Danny opine on what he's seeing in real time.

Yeah, I think we put some details out there around casing and the 10% increase is about $6 a foot or so on the drilling portion of the well. So it's really not a huge number. And like Kay said, the execution from the drilling and completions teams is really driving the cost beat. And I think we anticipate that there's going be lower activity in the basin, which usually leads to lower service pricing.

There's a lot of volatility out there right now with input costs and tariffs, but we do expect that activity is going to come out of this basin in a meaningful way and that should have a trickle down effect to pricing.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Securities LLC. Your line is now open.

Yeah. Good morning, gentlemen. Travis Case, you highlighted how the trajectory of oil volumes could trend, call it, to four eighty five in the second half of twenty twenty five. Danny mentioned you'll have kind of a really high DUC backlog kind of going into this period. I was just wondering if you could help us think about 2026 CapEx to keep that $485,000,000 flat.

All else being equal, would a $900,000,000 per quarter run rate seem reasonable based on what we know today?

Yes, Arun, I mean, I think that's reasonable. I hope that doesn't end up being the plan. But clearly with service costs coming down, efficiency is high, little lower production base, I think that's logical. Also had few more one time items in the budget this year that will be reduced next year. So I think that's a logical baseline.

Again, I'm kind of hoping that the market recovers quickly here and we can be talking about 500,000 plus barrels of oil a day next year, but I think we've to wait a few months here to see where things settle out.

Understood. That's helpful. And maybe my follow-up is in the shareholder letter, Travis, you mentioned how Diamondback will allocate a higher mix of free cash flow to repurchases if the volatility continues. I was wondering how you and Kaes think about kind of balancing leverage reducing leverage versus buybacks? Perhaps tell us how you think about give us a sense of what type of mix could we see towards the return of free cash flow to shareholders versus the fifty-fifty kind of overall guidance?

Yes. Listen, I think obviously improving the balance sheet is important, but I think the best the smartest capital allocation decision today is to repurchase shares. I think generally, Arun, round numbers probably allocate 25 to 30% of free cash flow to paying down debt. You saw that we repurchased some of our longer dated notes at well below par. Those notes had come down in price due to the thirty year treasury blowing out, so we took advantage of that.

I think you can expect to see more things like that on the debt side. I think some of our non core asset sales coming in should reduce our term loan we put in place for a two year term loan that we put in place for the Double Eagle closing. And then you get to the other 75% of free cash flow or 70% of free cash flow and in our minds that needs to be allocated to 100% repurchases and the base dividend. I think obviously the variable dividend is out the window at these prices and repurchasing shares grows per share oil volumes and per share cash flow and free cash flow when the market recovers.

Great. Travis, best of wishes to you. If you do write the book, I look forward to the chapter on how you got the Endeavor deal with Case to the finish line.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research. Your line is now open.

Hi. Good morning. If I think about the capital reductions, you guys get to choose which crews you keep, and you guys get to choose which locations you drill. To what degree are those real levers where you're making choices, Or are those most of the crews are about the same and most of the locations are about the same?

Yeah, I mean, I think from an execution standpoint, most of our resources on the service side are pretty well in line with each other. And so there's not a lot of high grading that occur and slowing down the activity. It really becomes commercial decision and discussions with our business partners who is going to work with us as activity comes down. And on the project side of things, our job is to always try to allocate capital to the best projects. And I think if you look at the consistency of our program over the past few years, it kind of speaks to the consistency of the projects we're doing.

So again, there's not a whole lot of high grading to be done in the projects themselves. I think you you will see us probably prioritize the projects where Viper has interest so we can continue to support Viper in that regard. But you know I don't think there's material high grading to be done in the pads or resource allocation.

And Bob, that's a blessing of having an outstanding inventory as well too. We're still allocating wells with very small range of outcomes because they're the top quartile of our inventory.

As Danny pointed out, we've been doing that for several years now. So again, durability of inventory matters when you go into one of these cycles and that's what our shareholders are lucky to have with Diamondback.

That's very clear. Quick follow-up. At your run rate, you're going to get through the remainder of your share buyback authorization. That's a trivial exercise to top that up when you need to?

Yes. We thought about looking at it this quarter, but felt that we want to get through another quarter. There's probably enough noise with all the changes in the capital plan this quarter and we'll discuss it with the Board. But I think the Board is certainly behind management in believing that buybacks are the right thing at these levels, and we expect to increase it when we get closer to the authorization.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Yes, good morning. I found the comment in the shareholder letter about geologic headwinds outpacing technology and process efficiency gains interesting. I assume that's a broader industry comment. So I'm curious, do you see the technology and process efficiency gains slowing from here or are the geologic headwinds becoming more severe? Just some more color behind that comment and kind of what's changing on the margin.

Yeah, I think that's a natural evolution of a maturing basin. I mean, we've been now exploiting this shale resource in the Permian Basin for fifteen years. And we still expect some R and D and some really innovative breakthroughs coming. But in a general sense, as dollars get allocated to lower and lower quality inventory and the longer you're in the game, if you're focused excellence and execution, your natural decline will be impacted where you're making less improvements than you did early on in the development of that asset. So it's more of a general comment that from my experience we've seen play out in the Eagle Ford, the Bakken and some of these other in the Barnett Shale in the early days as you continue to deplete these reservoirs.

Got it. Then coming back to the cost savings side of things, as you selected which rigs and frac crews were retained, were you able to capture some immediate savings from those that the crews that you retained? Or are you seeing service companies more willing to do blend and extend with any contracts in place? I'm just curious about kind of how quickly you're able to secure some statements from your service providers.

Well, I'll give a high level comment. Think for us, we've always tried to have very short term contracts so that we can have these conversations quickly both on the completion side and the drilling side. I think it's kind of a different story on both sides. On the drilling side, we use a multitude of contractors and those conversations are probably more fluid. On the completion side, we've obviously been big fans of the Halliburton, Zeus e fleets.

We run four of those today. And so I think I truly think that that relationship is more of a business partner type relationship where we're going to get through it together.

But I'll let Danny give some details. Yeah, I think, you know, case kind of hit the nail on the head. We are constantly in commercial negotiations with our service providers based on market conditions and, you know, what we're seeing in the pricing market and, you know, what kind of service quality we're receiving from them.

So when we lower activity internally, it's a discussion with all of them on who's going to be willing to work with us. And as the market can softens more broadly, we'll continue to have those conversations. I think Kate has said before, every day is RFQ Day at Diamondback. Continue to just keep our ear to the ground on where the service market is and want to recognize the best commercial value our shareholders and the discussions around our procurement process.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Philip J. Jungworth with BMO. Your line is now open.

Diamondback Energy (FANG) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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